Weekend Thread: Estimates BB 34, 1917 15.8, Dolittle 12.5, Gentlemen 11, Jumanji 7.9, Turning 7.3 | Bad Boys and 1917 cross 100M, Star Wars 500M

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

B+ for The Gentlemen

[Legion Again]

23 minutes ago, Eric Dolittle said:

Jesus. And that was the same month as Blair Witch 2. Those movies must have really stunk

2 of them are from not just the same month, but the same weekend. Truly amazing.

[keysersoze123]

Bad Boys should be higher than what Deadline had projected early. MTC1 is showing 138% increase while MTC2 is around 120%. Let us put somewhere in between and say 8m friday. 

 

Rest are running too slowly for me to project now but Gentlemen roughly should be 3.3m(True Friday) based on data seen earlier. 

[DAJK]

WHy didnt Hachi get a US release? Watched it last night and cried probably the entire last half hour

[Fancyarcher]

11 minutes ago, DAJK said:

WHy didnt Hachi get a US release? Watched it last night and cried probably the entire last half hour

For some reason, Sony didn't deem it fit for a theatrical release, which is a shame, as it's a great little emotional story. 

[DAJK]

23 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

For some reason, Sony didn't deem it fit for a theatrical release, which is a shame, as it's a great little emotional story. 

I mean I'd call it mercy, they saved a ton of people from crying in the theatres.

 

It's a good show, it isn't great but the story it's based on is ripe for tear-jerking moments. 

[Fancyarcher]

Just now, DAJK said:

I mean I'd call it mercy, they saved a ton of people from crying in the theatres.

 

It's a good show, it isn't great but the story it's based on is ripe for tear-jerking moments. 

Oh yeah, my dad saw that movie years before me, and he had a similar experience to you. Dog movies are inherently "heartbreaking", because most of the time you know it's gonna end sad. 

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

B+ for The Gentlemen

That's pretty good for the kind of movie it is.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Deadline estimates have Bad Boys at 33m which would be fantastic! 8.9m Friday

 

About what’s expected for Gentlemen and Turning. 15m for 1917. Doolittle at 11m

 

Little Women with 4.65m and 1.25m Friday

 

Another staggering hold for Knives Out! 3.65m and a 920k Friday

[Krissykins]

Ouch but not surprised for The Turning.
 

You know a horror film looks bland if even I have no interest in seeing it 

[VanillaSkies]

Deadline now saying 9m Friday, 33m weekend for Bad Boys. Quite the difference from the early numbers! 
 

It should hit 200 million with that second weekend hold. 

Edited January 25, 2020 by VanillaSkies

[Krissykins]

Side note: there’s a horror film opening every week in February too, although one is limited. 
 

8 horror films in a row. No idea what the studios were thinking. 

[DAJK]

Box Office For Jan. 24-26

thumb rank film dis. screens (chg) friday(vs. pv fri) 3-day tl wk 1 Bad Boys For Life Sony 3,775 $8.9M (-62%) $33M (-47%) $119.6M 2 2 1917 Uni/Amb/NR 3,937 (+325) $4M (-35%) $15M (-55%) $103.1M 5 3 Dolittle Uni 4,155 $2.7M (-55%) $11.3M (-48%) $43.5M 2 4 The Gentlemen STX/Miramax 2,165 $3.7M $10M $10M 1 5 Jumanji: The Next Level Sony 3,121 (-202) $1.7M (-21%) $7M (-28%)  $282.5M 7 6 The Turning Uni/DW 2,571 $2.5M $6.6M $6.6M 1 7 SW: Rise of Skywalker Dis 2,800 (-258) $1.3M (-34%) $5.1M (-38%) $501.6M 6 8 Little Women Sony 2,528 (+25) $1.25M (-24%) $4.65M (-27%) $93.7M 5 9 Just Mercy WB 2,408 (-49) $1.1M (-33%) $3.9M (-32%) $27M 5 10 Knives Out LG/MRC 1667 $920K (-19%) $3.6M (-15%) $151.9M

 

 

That's pretty incredible for Bad Boys. As long as BoP doesn't kill it I'd say it has a shot at close to 200M.

[Finnick]

 

 

 

 

 

BB3 EXPLODED!!

 

Box Office For Jan. 24-26

thumb rank film dis. screens (chg) friday(vs. pv fri) 3-day tl wk 1 Bad Boys For Life Sony 3,775 $8.9M (-62%) $33M (-47%) $119.6M 2 33 2 1917 Uni/Amb/NR 3,937 (+325) $4M (-35%) $15M (-55%) $103.1M 5 3 Dolittle Uni 4,155 $2.7M (-55%) $11.3M (-48%) $43.5M 2 4 The Gentlemen STX/Miramax 2,165 $3.7M $10M $10M 1 5 Jumanji: The Next Level Sony 3,121 (-202) $1.7M (-21%) $7M (-28%)  $282.5M 7 6 The Turning Uni/DW 2,571 $2.5M $6.6M $6.6M 1 7 SW: Rise of Skywalker Dis 2,800 (-258) $1.3M (-34%) $5.1M (-38%) $501.6M 6 8 Little Women Sony 2,528 (+25) $1.25M (-24%) $4.65M (-27%) $93.7M 5 9 Just Mercy WB 2,408 (-49) $1.1M (-33%) $3.9M (-32%) $27M 5 10 Knives Out LG/MRC 1667 $920K (-19%) $3.6M (-15%) $151.9M 9

[Legion Again]

That makes way more sense for BB, 25 was some classic drunk deadline.

 

KO will make a play for 10 consecutive top 10s next weekend, with 2 openers it just need to have Just Mercy and Turning drop below it.

[pepsa]

Great numbers for almost all holdovers, BB doing over $30m is a great sign for it's legs. Dropping only 47% from and inflated weekend is great.

119.6m after a 33m weekend give it a 1.91 multi after it's second weekend. Looking forward:

Midweek:  9.7m

Weekend: 20.5m (38% drop)

Total by next weekend = $149.8m

This would give it a shot at $200m DOM It would need some 35% week to week drops to secure it thought.

40% week to week drops for 5 weeks would get it to $191.57m with an extra valentine that might add 2 extra milion to about $193.57m add 3-4m more for the end of it's run and you get 196-197m easily enough to push it over. That said one or two 35% holds put it in a crazy good spot, one or two 45-50% drops (specialy in the next 2-3 weeks) would make it hard.

 

That said WoM seems to be great and it has a fair shot at $200m DOM I would say (if it does 33m this weekend).

 

Also 7m for Jumanji almost locks $300m for it. $282.5m after a 7m weekend. Next week doesn't have much competittion so another 30% drops is doable for a total of about $289.2m comming off a $4.9m weekend it would only need 2.2 times that weekend.

 

 

Edited January 25, 2020 by pepsa

[Legion Again]

With a 33M weekend, following the Mon-Sun multi of:

Ride Along — 222M 

Ride Along 2 — 199M

Green Hornet — 191M

Book of Eli — 190M

Glass — 186M

Sniper — 201M

[DAJK]

4 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

With a 33M weekend, following the Mon-Sun multi of:

Ride Along — 222M 

Ride Along 2 — 199M

Green Hornet — 191M

Book of Eli — 190M

Glass — 186M

Sniper — 201M

I'd say a total between 185-195 is more likely, not sure how keen Sony would be on pushing it to 200 Spectre style but we'll see. 

 

Funny how 2019 waited until September to get its (presumably) only 200M grosser, yet 2020 could have one in January. 

[fmpro]

1 hour ago, Finnick said:

 

 

 

 

 

BB3 EXPLODED!!

 

Box Office For Jan. 24-26

thumb rank film dis. screens (chg) friday(vs. pv fri) 3-day tl wk 1 Bad Boys For Life Sony 3,775 $8.9M (-62%) $33M (-47%) $119.6M 2 33 2 1917 Uni/Amb/NR 3,937 (+325) $4M (-35%) $15M (-55%) $103.1M 5 3 Dolittle Uni 4,155 $2.7M (-55%) $11.3M (-48%) $43.5M 2 4 The Gentlemen STX/Miramax 2,165 $3.7M $10M $10M 1 5 Jumanji: The Next Level Sony 3,121 (-202) $1.7M (-21%) $7M (-28%)  $282.5M 7 6 The Turning Uni/DW 2,571 $2.5M $6.6M $6.6M 1 7 SW: Rise of Skywalker Dis 2,800 (-258) $1.3M (-34%) $5.1M (-38%) $501.6M 6 8 Little Women Sony 2,528 (+25) $1.25M (-24%) $4.65M (-27%) $93.7M 5 9 Just Mercy WB 2,408 (-49) $1.1M (-33%) $3.9M (-32%) $27M 5 10 Knives Out LG/MRC 1667 $920K (-19%) $3.6M (-15%) $151.9M 9

55% drop for 1917. Nice math Deadline. Last weekend was 22 mill. Its more like 33%

Edited January 25, 2020 by fmpro

[a2k]

Good hold for Just Mercy. Thought it would fall higher after MLK weekend - 1.1 Fri, 3.9 FSS (-32%), 27 cume

 

Selma fell 38% same weekend and added 2.2x the weekend (12 more) to it's total (52.1).

an 23, 2015

8

$5,418,572

-38%

2,046

$2,648

$39,138,346

5

 

 

Similar performance would give Just Mercy 35+ dom. Underwhelming imo.