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Weekend Thread: Estimates BB 34, 1917 15.8, Dolittle 12.5, Gentlemen 11, Jumanji 7.9, Turning 7.3 | Bad Boys and 1917 cross 100M, Star Wars 500M

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44 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Damm 25 countries that so cool honestly, glad to hear you enjoyed it!, I nope one day I will also be able to travel to place and cultures furter away from home.

Weren't the people to untalkative in Belgium? I hear that comment alot and my friends and me fit in that stereotype 😛

Not when they were drinking 😂. British even get chatty in pubs. I talk so much it's hard to avoid. My 5 year old has 25 countries on passport. I had 3 at age 20 haha.

 

Hard to do much in USA. Hoping to move back to Europe again before we retire. 

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1 hour ago, narniadis said:

Screen loss + its not a family film its behaving like a middle of the pack awards film. Its holds and performance in general has been ok but not great. 

Actually, its performance has been awesome considering its Oscar buzz hasn't been that big. It will crack $100m and it may happen by Oscar night. 

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1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

This is the 3rd consecutive Friday that LW has the lowest Friday jump among top 10.  

I havent paid that close attention but it has behaved normally for an adult skewing flick. Not sure what you are really looking for, it has not from day 2 behaved in a way that shows it being a huge Friday performer? Its holding well on weekdays in general and it does skew to the female demographic which deflates weekend performance post OW. So again, not sure what you are wanting it to do. 

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23 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

Actually, its performance has been awesome considering its Oscar buzz hasn't been that big. It will crack $100m and it may happen by Oscar night. 

Overall yes, its final gross will be great (happy its going make the 100m mark) but post the holidays in particular its performance has been just fine. Had it opened now versus at Christmas it wouldnt be nearing 100m at all since it was the play of the first week of holidays that helped it the most. 

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4 hours ago, narniadis said:

While great, its not unusual for family films this time of year. Jumanji 17 did around the same 2 years ago. Should also top 100% today as well if it behaves like normal. 

 

What is nice is that the film should have no issues hitting 300m now.... the 5x multiple cap is coming up soon as well, probably another 2 weeks. It has literally played at the top of what it could do. 

 

Also note that Doolittle is also over 200% - its normative behavior. (The other 2 family films, Frozen and Spies are animated and dealing with decent theater drops which offset their ability.) 

Jumanji welcome to the jungle made 209% in friday after MLK, besides even if previous movie also did 235% doing as much as movie with amazing run would also be amazing, and doing better than movie with amazing run is even more amazing :)

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38 minutes ago, 1Robert1 said:

Jumanji welcome to the jungle made 209% in friday after MLK, besides even if previous movie also did 235% doing as much as movie with amazing run would also be amazing, and doing better than movie with amazing run is even more amazing :)

You are trying to paint a picture that doesnt exist, not unusual with your fanboying over the film. It has performed fantastic but again the Friday percentage increase is fine and normal. To try and draw the correlation that you are right now (same Fridays between the two films), we would also need to bemoan that J19 isnt going to come close to the total and legs of J17. 235 is normal (as would have been anything in the 50 point spread of 190-240) . 

Its in for a great hold this weekend, enjoy it :) and take further joy when it passes 300m. 

 

Also, due to MLK being earlier in 2018 the actual Friday that aligns here shows J17 with 237% ;) not all calendars are a direct match, especially with holidays that float. Next weekend being an odd mixed weekend between months being an example of how weird some comparisons can be. 

Edited by narniadis
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37 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

Little Women is very mediocre. Funny that all the controversy surrounding Greta not being nominated and the movie isn't even that good to begin with. 

Greta direction is way better than Philips at least, she deserved a nomination

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5 hours ago, misafeco said:

Good Friday jump for TROS actually.

 

TLJ crossed the 600M mark on the comparable post MLK weekend and TROS will cross 500M on the same weekend.

 

TLJ added another ~16M, the same late legs would make TROS finish around 513-514M (2.3x multiplier from a 5.2M weekend).

Comparatively it's also at/entered into the height of its theater count advantage. The more it can stay ahead in availability or increase the gap the more beneficial.

 

Week 1 only TROS = TLJ -2.3% (TROS +174 theaters than TLJ)
Week 2 only TROS = TLJ -24.3% (TROS +174 theaters than TLJ)
Week 3 only TROS = TLJ -45.3% (TROS +174 theaters than TLJ)
Week 4 only TROS = TLJ -34.4% (TROS +47 theaters than TLJ)
Week 5 only TROS = TLJ -26.8% (TROS -32 theaters than TLJ)

Average weekly: TROS = TLJ -26.6%

Day 36 only TROS = TLJ -22.4% (TROS +344 theaters than TLJ)

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2 hours ago, Nova said:

Am I bad movie goer for returning my tickets for The Turning for tonight and instead taking a trip to NYC :ph34r:

 

No.  It's as bad as they say it is.  There's nothing new in here that you haven't seen in the Boy or Winchester.  But then dat ending is just the biggest WTF!  It's like they went full Twilight Zone, dropped acid, snorted coke, took E and ate crystal laced peyote all at once and ten wrote the last three pages of the script.

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39 minutes ago, narniadis said:

 

In 2015 in friday after mlk there is one movie in top 10 which made more than 235% it's paddington (in his 8th day) in 2016 there is also one movie which made more than 235%, and this movie was released 8 days before that friday. In 2017 there are 3 movies, in 2018 one movie, and in 2019 there is also one movie. Out all of this 7 movies, 5 was released in january and only Green Book and Sing was released in previous year. So in 6 years Jumanji is third movie which made 235% or more in friday after mlk and wasn't released same year. There was 60 movies in top 10 during this 6 year, and only 3 of them made 235% or more. It's just 5% all movies. Think whatever you want but if something happens once in every 20 attempts it's unusual. 

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It's not a great movie (and I know I've been mentioning it a lot) but Hachi is one of the saddest movies ever. Like to the point I can't focus on other things this weekend because how tf can I when in the back of my mind I know that Hachi never stopped waiting. 

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@1Robert1 - all I am going to say now is that you have a lot to learn and instead of arguing about nonsensical points (The Friday post MLK doesn't mean anything in regards to what you are looking at), instead try to take what those of us "old guards" have to say and learn from it.

It is normal for Family skewing films OUTSIDE OF THE HOLIDAYS (Be that the Christmas or Summer Breaks) to increase between 190 and 240%.

It doesn't matter if it is the Friday post a Monday holiday as the benefit of the holiday doesn't skew the percentage enough to be measurable.

What effects the % of increases more than anything is screen count / showtime loss and or bad word of mouth.

 

Is 235% higher Absolutely - I never said it wasn't - all I tried to do was show you that it is normal and falls within normal range. You also need to understand that calendars don't always align great when holidays shift - as I noted in the post above. The Friday that aligns more accurately from a calendar pov (January 26th, 2018 versus 2 years later being January 24th) also shows *surprise* a 237% lift for Jumanji17. That 237% doesnt in the grand scheme of things mean anything, but you have for some reason latched on to it as some grand oddity - which it just isnt. 

 

I try my best to teach and share what I have learned over the years of following the Box Office - I was many years ago - the newb who spouted outlandish things that caused others to mock (as much as they could back in those BOM days). Thankfully posters like Baumer and VanillaSky (and many others that no longer post here) took time to teach and share their insight and I have learned much. Take the advice and learn instead of being outlandish for one off movies that aren't behaving in anyway unnatural or unrealistic to their release era.

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46 minutes ago, 1Robert1 said:

In 2015 in friday after mlk there is one movie in top 10 which made more than 235% it's paddington (in his 8th day) in 2016 there is also one movie which made more than 235%, and this movie was released 8 days before that friday. In 2017 there are 3 movies, in 2018 one movie, and in 2019 there is also one movie. Out all of this 7 movies, 5 was released in january and only Green Book and Sing was released in previous year. So in 6 years Jumanji is third movie which made 235% or more in friday after mlk and wasn't released same year. There was 60 movies in top 10 during this 6 year, and only 3 of them made 235% or more. It's just 5% all movies. Think whatever you want but if something happens once in every 20 attempts it's unusual. 

Better to compare to a year with the exact same calendar: 2013

Jan 24 Friday

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2014-01-24/?ref_=bo_rl_table_64

Ride Along: +262.2%

The Nut Job: +292.1%

Frozen: +211.8%

Devil's Due: +203.4%

 

The actual good news for Jumanji is that the weekly drop is just 21.8% which is the best drop in the top 10 after Knives Out.

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1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

Greta direction is way better than Philips at least, she deserved a nomination

Why do you say this? I'm not saying I disagree, as I haven't seen LW so I can't judge. I'm asking genuinely.

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23 minutes ago, misafeco said:

Better to compare to a year with the exact same calendar: 2014 - fixed that for ya

 

Which only works until February 29th!! :lol:

Gotta love how leap years effect things later on since we all of a sudden jump from comparing 6 years previous to 5....

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