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Thread to discuss the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China. 

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In China

  Total Count Daily Count Daily % Inc 2 day % Inc Deaths % of 3 days ago
Corona            
T 270          
W 420 150 55.6%      
T 570 150 35.7% 111.1%    
F 800 230 40.4% 90.5%    
S 1300 500 62.5% 128.1%    
S 2019 719 55.3% 152.4% 56 9.8%
M 2794 775 38.4% 114.9% 80 10.0%

         deaths are running at 10% of 3 days prior infected #

 

Smaller percentage today but still a higher number. 775 increase vs 719 yesterday.  We need this number to steadily drop for 14 days before they can think about loosening restrictions even then another wave could hit

 

5 in the US now. 3 in Europe

it will take 7-14 days to see if it spread here

World Map

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Edited by POTUS 2020
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8 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

2 in Canada now. Toronto. Wife of the first person.

 

Mass panic on twitter and reddit. Its 28 days later up in there.

No need to panic.  Just be cautious and prepare.

The media doesn't give enough details to prevent panic but it the unknown can also cause it.

I'd like to know how long they had symptoms and how interactive they were with other people.

They are screening passengers that get off planes, but if someone is pulled aside and had it on the plane, what about the other 400 people on that plane. Just wait 14 days to see if they get it? And they can spread it to others before they realize.

Hundreds of flights leaving China everyday still while the count increases

Stock up on food. Buy a mask

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9 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

No need to panic.  Just be cautious and prepare.

The media doesn't give enough details to prevent panic but it the unknown can also cause it.

I'd like to know how long they had symptoms and how interactive they were with other people.

They are screening passengers that get off planes, but if someone is pulled aside and had it on the plane, what about the other 400 people on that plane. Just wait 14 days to see if they get it? And they can spread it to others before they realize.

Hundreds of flights leaving China everyday still while the count increases

Stock up on food. Buy a mask

Info so far

 

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/second-presumptive-case-of-coronavirus-diagnosed-in-canada-first-case-confirmed-1.4784799

 

The woman and her 50-year old husband recently returned to Toronto from Wuhan. The husband was ambulanced to Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre in Toronto on January 23, while the wife has been in self-isolation since arriving in Toronto, Ontario health officials said.

 

The husband in the first case displayed mild symptoms on the flight and went to the hospital a day later as symptoms worsened. He is in stable condition and being kept in isolation at the hospital.

 

Officials are following protocols and trying to contact passengers on China Southern Airlines flight CZ311 from Guangzhou, China, who were in close proximity to the couple. The couple’s flight landed at Pearson International Airport at 3:46 p.m. on Jan 22. 

Williams said the entire plane was not at risk because it’s a “droplet-spread organism.”

Samples from both individuals were sent to the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg for full confirmation. There are 19 other cases under investigation, officials said, and another 15 ruled out as negative so far.

Edited by EarlyDeadlinePredictions
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I'd hate to be living in Wuhan right now with this paranoid fear of catching it from someone. 

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More then usual number of people wearing face masks this morning. My morning commute involves travelling through the Airport Stations. 
 

“Next stop. International Airport.”

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They're up to 4295 total cases now. Mainly because of Hubei province adding 1300 new cases. 106 total deaths. 

 

 

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Wuhan mayor admits they (government) were covering up

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7933405/Wuhan-mayor-admits-withholding-information-coronavirus-outbreak.html

 

The Englisht news outlets are being kind. In the original Chinese interview, the Major even hinted that before Jan 20 the Central Gov in Beijing would not let them reveal the situation.

 

@BoxOfficeZ

Edited by A Marvel Fanboy

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6 minutes ago, cannastop said:

 

Agreed

 

WHO is controled by China. China has lobbied enough third world countries to take control of WHO.

Edited by A Marvel Fanboy

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On 1/27/2020 at 9:59 PM, DeeCee said:

More then usual number of people wearing face masks this morning. My morning commute involves travelling through the Airport Stations. 
 

“Next stop. International Airport.”

and hundreds of more flights still leaving China everyday.  

 

20 hours ago, BoxOfficeZ said:

They're up to 4295 total cases now. Mainly because of Hubei province adding 1300 new cases. 106 total deaths. 

 

Hubei added 90% in 24 hours, 25% increase everywhere else.  Its a parabolic curve from day 1 to 30. It will be a week(minimum incubation period) before other places increase their percentages if not contained and another week to see if it trends like Hubei

Corona Total Inf Count Daily Count Daily % Inc 2 day % Inc   Deaths % of Inf 3 days ago Healed
                 
T 270              
W 420 150 55.6%          
T 570 150 35.7% 111.1%        
F 800 230 40.4% 90.5%        
S 1300 500 62.5% 128.1%   41 9.8%  
S 2019 719 55.3% 152.4%   56 9.8%  
M 2794 775 38.4% 114.9%   80 10.0% 47
T 4474 1680 60.1% 121.6%   107 8.2%

63

Africa, Germany and Sri Lanka added to the list

Mongolia closed its border but with the holiday hundreds of thousands still flying out everyday elsewhere

This is much quicker than SARS and a much bigger daily count.  SARS took 6 month to burn out

worldwide2003_7_13.jpg

 

 

Edited by POTUS 2020
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11 hours ago, A Marvel Fanboy said:

Wuhan mayor admits they (government) were covering up

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7933405/Wuhan-mayor-admits-withholding-information-coronavirus-outbreak.html

 

The Englisht news outlets are being kind. In the original Chinese interview, the Major even hinted that before Jan 20 the Central Gov in Beijing would not let them reveal the situation.

 

@BoxOfficeZ

In other news, Mayor Zhou has mysteriously vanished or at least he probably will at some point. 

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1 hour ago, nghtvsn said:

In other news, Mayor Zhou has mysteriously vanished or at least he probably will at some point. 

totally expected

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/28/canada-chinese-community-battles-racist-backlash-amid-coronavirus-outbreak

 

Things are not great here in Toronto.... 

 

No the disease is not out of control but a 2003 Sars epidemic still is widely remembered and as a result there has been a lot of vitriol put against the Chinese community in Toronto as they are seen to be 'blamed' to bringing disease to the city. 

 

@JasonNot sure if accurate but hearing from many people I know this all due to some guy in China wanted to eat raw bat and such. 

Edited by Lordmandeep

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6 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:

@JasonNot sure if accurate but hearing from many people I know this all due to some guy in China wanted to eat raw bat and such. 


The virus has 96% sequence similarity to a virus previously found in bats, meaning it's very closely related.

However, it is much more probable that the virus passed via another animal vector to humans. The SARS coronavirus, also originally from bats, was found in animals that are much more frequently sold in live markets.

Also, the initial jump to humans is from proximity with the live animals, rather than from eating raw meat. None of these exotic meats are customarily eaten raw, and respiratory viruses are transmitted via respiratory droplets contacting mucous membranes, not from eating muscle tissue.

Edited by Jason
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A big difference between SARS and now is the massive increase international travel to and from China.  From around 700-800 million in 2002 to around 6 billion passengers now.

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The increase was slightly smaller for the first time.  87 infected outside of China.  All but two originated in China. We may see numbers in other countries increase from spread in the next few days

Corona Total Inf Count Daily Count Daily % Inc 2 day % Inc   Deaths % of Inf 3 days ago Healed
                 
T 270              
W 420 150 55.6%          
T 570 150 35.7% 111.1%        
F 800 230 40.4% 90.5%        
S 1300 500 62.5% 128.1%   41 9.8%  
S 2019 719 55.3% 152.4%   56 9.8%  
M 2794 775 38.4% 114.9%   80 10.0% 47
T 4474 1680 60.1% 121.6%   107 8.2% 63
W 6057 1583 35.4% 116.8%   132 6.5% 110
Edited by POTUS 2020
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1 hour ago, POTUS 2020 said:

The increase was slightly smaller for the first time.  87 infected outside of China.  All but two originated in China. We may see numbers in other countries increase from spread in the next few days

Corona Total Inf Count Daily Count Daily % Inc 2 day % Inc   Deaths % of Inf 3 days ago Healed
                 
T 270              
W 420 150 55.6%          
T 570 150 35.7% 111.1%        
F 800 230 40.4% 90.5%        
S 1300 500 62.5% 128.1%   41 9.8%  
S 2019 719 55.3% 152.4%   56 9.8%  
M 2794 775 38.4% 114.9%   80 10.0% 47
T 4474 1680 60.1% 121.6%   107 8.2% 63
W 6057 1583 35.4% 116.8%   132 6.5% 110

Good news is the fatality rate is much lower than SARS, or Indian swine flu, not even half. 

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5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Good news is the fatality rate is much lower than SARS, or Indian swine flu, not even half. 

Well, its too early to tell.;  SARS death toll was 10% of infected.  I did a 3 day lag because I noticed it was tracking at 10% for a few days and am trying to find a predictor.  It could be a 5 day lag or inconsistent due to delayed testing at times or misdiagnosis of deaths(why test an already dead person if overloaded?).  Should the infected reach 100k+ then symptoms will not be treated as fast or at all due to already overcrowded hospitals thereby increasing the percentage of deaths.  I believe the unprecedented shut down was due to not just the rapid spread but the several possible deadly symptoms that would need to be treated

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