Jump to content
DeeCee

Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Andreas said:

There's a huge discrepancy between mortality rates per countries, for example (Per Worldometers):

Germany - 0.27%

South Korea - 0.99%

But then, on the other hand we have:
Italy - 7.94%

Iran - 6.53%

So, in my opinion, the more accurate numbers are the ones reported from SK and Germany, because they test way more, even young and asymptomatic people. Iran and Italy's situation is much worse now, so they only report the confirmed symptomatic cases (or perhaps even just the hospitalized people). Here in Romania we now have 246 cases. No deaths. Only 5 people in serios/critical condition.

also something to consider is, that it also depends, on what people  get the virus, a country could very well, have this death rates, bc by luck it just hitted, persons with serious health problem, what i mean is that lets say in my country gree, the date rate could be in reality way lower than 1 or way bigger than 1 and close to 8 , in one case it hit people with no serious health problems, on the other case it did, so as you can see

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

India is the least prepared. We have less official cases than Pakistan. Imagine that. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

is it really contained ? i very much doubt that, there may be very well thousands of people without symptoms, 

Probably, and they will have to remain vigilant until a vaccine is found. That is why they are making so many (negative) tests. Their citizens will live normal lives in the mean time.

It is already better by an order of magnitude than any Western country, where containment became impossible after a few weeks - as if they barely tried, or just didn't know how to do it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Madhuvan said:

India is the least prepared. We have less official cases than Pakistan. Imagine that. 

again the problem is, that if india, has like 100 million people and death like i dont know lets say a number of 1000, then thay means that the death rate is not big, my point is that i really dont think that the measures goverments are taking can show us, the actuall picture, of what the affect upon the virus will be, it very well, may have a very small affect, 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Probably, and they will have to remain vigilant until a vaccine is found. That is why they are making so many (negative) tests. Their citizens will live normal lives in the mean time.

It is already better by an order of magnitude than any Western country, where containment became impossible after a few weeks - as if they barely tried, or just didn't know how to do it.

the most idiotic thing, is that its locked, that goverments know way too much, that we the common people actually dont , and thats a big problem , they could easily hide, the fact that this virus has a huge death rate in reality or  its actually harmless (very low death rate), like the flu, i am not sayin that this is what is happening for sure, but i just dont trust media, media are goverments pets most of the time at least

Edited by john2000

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

again the problem is, that if india, has like 100 million people and death like i dont know lets say a number of 1000, then thay means that the death rate is not big, my point is that i really dont think that the measures goverments are taking can show us, the actuall picture, of what the affect upon the virus will be, it very well, may have a very small affect, 

Average life expectancy in India is pretty poor about 12 years less than in the west. 

 

It could be the virus just washes through without making much impact.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Average life expectancy in India is pretty poor about 12 years less than in the west. 

 

It could be the virus just washes through without making much impact.

this, the point, is that there are so many many many factors, going on, that we are basically driving blind , at least citizens , and our only source are media, which of course as we know can make people at least most of people believe anything, for a good or a bad reason, the whole thing, and the way some actions are being taken, and why are being taken , seems suspicious to me, imo

Edited by john2000

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Iran and Italy had lower mortality rate 10-15 days ago. For example, Italy had 107 deaths and 3089 total cases on March 4th while Iran had 92 deaths and 2922 cases on the same date. It is rising now because their healthcare systems have been overwhelmed and some serious cases on ventilator aren't making it after spending days in ICU. Both of these countries are in almost complete lockdown for a few days so it should start declining by next week.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, cannastop said:

did he isolate for 14 days?

Yes. He came back to Italy like 3 weeks ago from the US, with many people coughing inside the plane. He immediately self-isolate after he got home, and in a few days he was feeling ill. He requested to get tested for covid-19, but no test kits were available. He recovered in about 12 days. Maybe it was the regular flu, maybe it was covid, he'll never know. But he was careful not to spread it. 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, TLK said:

Iran and Italy had lower mortality rate 10-15 days ago. For example, Italy had 107 deaths and 3089 total cases on March 4th while Iran had 92 deaths and 2922 cases on the same date. It is rising now because their healthcare systems have been overwhelmed and some serious cases on ventilator aren't making it after spending days in ICU. Both of these countries are in almost complete lockdown for a few days so it should start declining by next week.

On March 4th Spain had 2 deaths out of 228 cases so less than 1%.  They are now at 4.5%.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Jason said:

COVID-19 is far worse than a bad flu, even when you consider the infection fatality rate (IFR) that includes all infections, not just cases confirmed by testing.

About 0.1% for flu vs. ~0.9% for COVID, when medical care is available. (best estimate from papers from the Institute of Disease Modelling and Imperial College London)

 

Below is a graph from the paper published by the Insitute of Disease Modelling that compares the severity and transmissibility of COVID to various seasonal flu pandemics. Note that the relative severity of COVID was assessed to be almost as bad as the 1918 flu, and the lower IFR suggested by the current data is because of modern interventions such as ventilators. If the healthcare system gets overwhelmed so that interventions are unavailable, the IFR for COVID could rise to become comparable to that of the 1918 flu pandemic.

0db00ead87b88ac599962d2b47257ce2.png

Also consider that South Korea has had very thorough testing, and therefore has been able to detect asymptompatic and mild infections. Here is a comparison, using data from the CDC for flu and the Korean CDC for COVID-19:

5e6a7b2584159f1962421227?width=700&forma

of course its worse than flue, still point remains, that we are driving blind

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, TLK said:

Iran and Italy had lower mortality rate 10-15 days ago. For example, Italy had 107 deaths and 3089 total cases on March 4th while Iran had 92 deaths and 2922 cases on the same date. It is rising now because their healthcare systems have been overwhelmed and some serious cases on ventilator aren't making it after spending days in ICU. Both of these countries are in almost complete lockdown for a few days so it should start declining by next week.

it also depends , on what people the virus will hit, for example, in one country the virus could be more among young people, while in another country it could be hit more old or ill people

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i wouldnt want to be a doctor right now, poor people

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Jason SPanish FLu is worse as it really hurts younger people and it caused their immune system to work against them. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The World Health Organization reported 11,526 new Covid-19 coronavirus cases diagnosed outside of China Tuesday, a decline from Monday’s total of 14,000 new case. That signifies the first daily decline in the number of new cases since March 8.

 

some good news, for now

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Probably, and they will have to remain vigilant until a vaccine is found. That is why they are making so many (negative) tests. Their citizens will live normal lives in the mean time.

It is already better by an order of magnitude than any Western country, where containment became impossible after a few weeks - as if they barely tried, or just didn't know how to do it.

Don't only blame incompetent leaders, the people are just as if not more useless and incompetent in this whole situation. Because of cultural differences we are less strict, less disciplined, think we know better than experts etc. It has advantages, it also has huge disadvantages. One thing we are also great at blaming everybody but ourselves for the things that go wrong.  Our politicians are but a symptom of our own society and the people that live in it.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Lordmandeep said:

@Jason SPanish FLu is worse as it really hurts younger people and it caused their immune system to work against them. 


It doesn't make sense to make that assessment based on what happens in one demographic. It was actually not much worse than seasonal flu for the elderly, so the 1918 flu was actually probably milder than COVID for the demographic where COVID and flu both cause the most deaths.

Also, that is the older theory for why the 1918 flu killed so many younger people compared to older people, before modern genetic sequencing made it possible to identify the antigens present on older pandemics. The newer and more likely theory is that it's because older people actually had had exposure to the H1N1 antigens as children, unlike younger people. In that theory, younger people died not from an overactive response, but from a complete lack of immunity.

Regardless, the point is that the overall population-level severity of COVID would likely to be close to that of the 1918 flu in the absence of medical interventions.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Jason said:


It doesn't make sense to make that assessment based on what happens in one demographic. It was actually not much worse than seasonal flu for the elderly, so the 1918 flu was actually probably milder than COVID for the demographic where COVID and flu both cause the most deaths.

Also, that is the older theory for why the 1918 flu killed so many younger people compared to older people, before modern genetic sequencing made it possible to identify the antigens present on older pandemics. The newer and more likely theory is that it's because older people actually had had exposure to the H1N1 antigens as children, unlike younger people. In that theory, younger people died not from an overactive response, but from a complete lack of immunity.

Regardless, the point is that the overall population-level severity of COVID would likely to be close to that of the 1918 flu in the absence of medical interventions.

Well the science around the Spanish Flu is still heavily looked at...

Scientists offer several possible explanations for the high mortality rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Some analyses have shown the virus to be particularly deadly because it triggers a cytokine storm, which ravages the stronger immune system of young adults.[11] In contrast, a 2007 analysis of medical journals from the period of the pandemic[12][13] found that the viral infection was no more aggressive than previous influenza strains. Instead, malnourishment, overcrowded medical camps and hospitals, and poor hygiene promoted bacterial superinfection. This superinfection killed most of the victims, typically after a somewhat prolonged death bed.[14][15]

 

 

 

I mean regardless we have an inverse situation now it seems, where the disease does not impact younger people much but ravages older populations. 

Edited by Lordmandeep
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   1 member

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.