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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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We will never really know if we overreacted to this whole situation but we will 100% feel the affects of an under reaction. And in a lot of ways one could argue that the latter is what's happening right now given the late response to act by so many countries. 

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Btw this has been doing the rounds in India

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And its being circulated not just by illiterate people but also by well educated people holding higher degrees and stuff. 

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6 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

Simple Math - Recession vs 1-4 million deaths in America

 

That is the equation 


Hi,

Where are you getting 1-4 million figure?

 

These are NOT my words but someone on another forum said: 

I say take the 500k deaths. Better than ruining us financially. Especially because 450k of those will be people who should be dying any day."

 

Harsh to say the least. But it’s part of the calculus that must be made. Now 4 million is orders of magnitude higher. I hate that this is evena debate.  How things have changed!

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8 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

Simple Math - Recession vs 1-4 million deaths in America

 

That is the equation 

It is a bit more complex than that imo.

 

We could be talking about the big D here, we risk a depression (that could cause a lot of death by itself) vs 200K to millions of death in America.

 

Death rate is far far from well known, we have very few case of real denominator out there, cruise ship are close (but many refused to be tested on them, aged and not healthy population), the village of Vo in Italy for country only Iceland tested a significant part of its population I think.

 

Death rate talk are still in the 0.05 to 1.4% range if not more, giant gap.

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5 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

There are too many to quote so I’ll just say to those discussing cases and absence of deaths in India. One of the main government org responsible for testing and stuff just today directed that those who have come to the hospital with respiratory problems, fever, cold like symptoms, etc be tested for Coronavirus. They came with this order just today. Meaning before today, even if u showed up to the hospital with these symptoms (which are all symptoms of Coronavirus) you would not necessarily be tested. That should give an indication of how ridiculous handling of this thing has been so far. 
 

And as far as I know, deaths due to Pneumonia so far had not been tracked. I dunno if they have started now or not. 

This has already happened with me. I wasn't tested for long time. 

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“Flu's mortality rate is about 0.1%. Coronavirus is about 3-4%. It will kill 30-40 times as many people as the flu”


How do we know what the mortality rate is if we don’t know the denominator? Not saying that it isn’t more deadly than the flu. Just asking since the quote was posted by DeeDee as ‘facts’. 

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It’s mind boggling that people are arguing its better to let 1-3 million Americans die rather than let the economy tank as if that many people dying isn't gonna fuck up the economy anyways. 
 

Even last year people were saying a recession is coming (before Coronavirus started). All the bond yields inverting and stuff was signalling as much. That combined with so many people dying would have led to a huge recession even without the lockdowns. 

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18 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

Simple Math - Recession vs 1-4 million deaths in America

 

That is the equation 

For some countries the left hand side of the equation is economic collapse.

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Moderation:

 

Ok people... we will not be referring to this as the 'Chinese Virus'  or the 'Wet Market Virus'  or any other racially tinged terms on the forums.

 

This thread is a central place to give status, information/actions and news on the Covid 19 virus; not to shame/accuse/point fingers and any one country/race.

 

There will be plenty of time to discuss reasons for this pandemic and changes needed to prevent it in the future.

 

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I think I was not clear I meant

 

 

Either we take a recession to avoid 1 to 4 million deaths :)

 

 

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Just now, ZeeSoh said:

It’s mind boggling that people are arguing its better to let 1-3 million Americans die rather than let the economy tank as if that many people dying isn't gonna fuck up the economy anyways. 

People arguing do not believe that the 3 million is more likely than say 300-800k (of mostly retired americans) dying and are not necessarily saying that let the economy tank a little bit (stop most travel, large pure luxury gathering, etc...) just by how much.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

Moderation:

 

Ok people... we will not be referring to this as the 'Chinese Virus'  or the 'Wet Market Virus'  or any other racially tinged terms on the forums.

 

This thread is a central place to give status, information/actions and news on the Covid 19 virus; not to shame/accuse/point fingers and any one country/race.

 

There will be plenty of time to discuss reasons for this pandemic and changes needed to prevent it in the future.

 

 

I can understand the Chinese Virus  is 100% racist.

However how is "wet market virus" racist?

 

A wet market applies to a well known horrible practice that creates such diseases.

 

 

Political correctness seems to be more important then stopping future pandemics to people on here it seems. I think values will change when this runs its course sadly :(

 

Edited by Lordmandeep
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1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

Either we take a recession to avoid 1 to 4 million deaths

It was really clear, but people we not fully agreed that it would be a recession (depression could happen here I feel like) and about that number of death estimate if small recession measure would be taken (washing of hands, stop most of world travel, stop concert/theater type)

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Damn, the numbers from Italy are so upsetting, and it's sad to have to watch this knowing there's nothing we can do to help.

 

Here in Brazil numbers so far are actually really low for a country this size (1,021 confirmed infected; 18 deaths), but we're scared things escalate because no one here trusts the government to handle anything with competence.

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4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

People arguing do not believe that the 3 million is more likely than say 300-800k (of mostly retired americans) dying and are not necessarily saying that let the economy tank a little bit (stop most travel, large pure luxury gathering, etc...) just by how much.

Then those people are talking out of their ass and have no idea what they are talking about. If there were no lockdowns or similar strict measures taken and if things were to be left free to take its course then the death rate would be much higher. 
 

Even right now with strict measures in place, medical facilities and staff are getting overwhelmed. Look at the news coming out of Italy for example. If there were not strict measures the cases will rise exponentially and so will the people needing hospital visits. Many will not get treatment in time (as they are able to get now). The fatality rate will absolutely shoot up from around 1% predicted right now to much higher. There is no way just 300-800k people will die in such scenario. 
 

I ignore such people and I suggest you do too. 

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32 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Death always lags big time. Hoping rate of increase starts to decrease in a week. 

 

Thinking USA will be at 50-70k cases by march 28th.

 

We'll be way over 50k cases by then. It really depends on testing availability. We should be over 100k cases by the 28th, and if we're not it is because there aren't enough tests.

 

This is exploding in the US and politicians are largely behaving reactively instead of proactively. They wait until the news is bad and only then take action. As I said yesterday, the three areas with particularly bad issues are NY, NJ and Florida. The number of infected in NY alone will probably exceed 50k by the 28th. They are accounting for almost half the new positive tests here.

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Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

Simple Math - Recession vs 1-4 million deaths in America

 

That is the equation 

Could be easily 10x less. Still 100k would suck and only because of so many strong measures. We shall see.

Edited by cdsacken

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43 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Yeah, hoping it is temporal lag rather than stress on diagnostic capacities. Those are the two main possibilities, one would be good and one would be really bad.   
 

US 50k by 24th at latest

Maybe. Italy did much worse in containing with not blocking China. They increased 3x from low 6s to 20k cases in a week. That would put us around 60k. Might be worse or better

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2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Maybe. Italy did much worse in containing with not blocking China. They increased 3x from low 6s to 20k cases in a week. That would put us around 60k. Might be worse or better

We went from low 6 to 20 in 3 days. Testing is picking up now, maybe 150k or so on 28th

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, doublejack said:

 

We'll be way over 50k cases by then. It really depends on testing availability. We should be over 100k cases by the 28th, and if we're not it is because there aren't enough tests.

 

This is exploding in the US and politicians are largely behaving reactively instead of proactively. They wait until the news is bad and only then take action. As I said yesterday, the three areas with particularly bad issues are NY, NJ and Florida. The number of infected in NY alone will probably exceed 50k by the 28th. They are accounting for almost half the new positive tests here.

. Italy was in way worse shape and jumped from 6 to 20k cases. 100k would take 5x from here and every single day would require big increases from rate of increase.

 

But we'll see. Not impossible

Edited by cdsacken

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