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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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Posted (edited)

The impact of a potential great depression is what is truly frightening. None of us have ever lived through something like that.

Edited by MovieMan89

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We had a pretty good day in Belgium on sunday (obv could be because of reports being slower) but if it holds monday and tuesday the fearfull exponential growth might have been avoided.

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28 minutes ago, lilmac said:

 

Agreed. At some point we HAVE to get back to work, even accounting for some of the casualty estimates out there. More people will die in another great depression than COVID-19, IMO. For people who are young/fit (yes I know even the young are getting seriously ill but at much lower rates) things need to return to normal in a few weeks. 

 

Also, even though the number of confirmed cases in the US is rising that doesn't mean flatten the curve is NOT working. It's a function of more testing.

Not how this works. If you say screw it and send everyone back to work the number of cases skyrockets, and you also give the virus simply that much longer and that many more opportunities to mutate, and potentially turn into something that becomes more dangerous for younger people.

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3 hours ago, MadJosh said:

Piers Morgan is usually right despite his correct opinions usually causing offense, that's why people hate him  

Piers Morgan is a criminal, raging bigot and attention seeking charlatan. He is never right about anything. Let’s not forget how he (still) famously claims that Madonna was banned from his CNN show from day one until the end, even though her manager Guy Oseary literally released correspondence from Piers and his producers begging him to ask her to go on the show. He’s pretty much the “journalist“ equivalent of Trump.

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3 hours ago, a2k said:

 

Trump has 4 big advantages this election:

1) He holds the executive office and can pass orders to appease people and swing state as he pleases. Similar to how before the re-election was due Obama passed a pro-Dreamer order.

2) He has been normalized as a president. There was a taboo around voting for him in affluent areas, cities back in 2016. Now he has a record of normal SOTU speeches, approval ratings and the stigma of telling folks you voted for him has reduced. Even republican establishment wasn't fully backing him in 2016.

3) Biden like HRC is a pro-trade candidate and Trump will use that to point out how supply chain is in China. He has to stand in front of one factory in a swing state and pass an order to fund a supply chain to make masks there and milk that story.

4) Not much of a contrast - Unlike Sanders, Biden is going to find it tough to contrast against Trump. They will attack him on family corruption, gaffes, misogyny like Trump was attacked. HRC on the other hand had folks who wanted to be part of history and vote for the 1st female president, was very organized and disciplined. Obama still was in office and campaigned like hell for her as a sitting president.

i think we need to move Political talk to the Politic threads but I do want to answer with some thoughts before hopefully the mods do that.

 

Trump has one other advantage this year that he did not have in 2016. The Democrats outspent Republicans well over 2 to 1 in the 2016 Presidential election. That will not be the case this year.

 

A couple of things Biden has going for him though.

Unlike Clinton, Biden doesn't have sky high unfavorable ratings. Trump and Clinton were the 2 most disliked candidates for President in the US pretty much ever. The voters ultimately decided to go with the devil they didn't know (Trump) over the devil they did know (Clinton). As shown by late deciders breaking heavily for Trump.

 

Biden has a much better chance of being competitive in swing states. Ultimately Bernie is a factional candidate. If he was the candidate than FL is not competitive and VA actually becomes a battleground state rather than a likely blue state (one poll had Trump ahead of Sanders in VA by 5 points).

 

Clinton's standing with African-American's in 2016 is lower than where Biden stands with them in 2020.

 

When the people vote for a new president they generally vote for a candidate that overcompensates for the perceived shortcomings of the previous President. Trump is a disrupter (a populist revolutionary if you will). Sanders is simply a left wing populist revolutionary to Trump's right wing populist revolutionary. Biden provides a sense of normalcy that neither Trump nor Sanders do.

 

Finally, Trump's campaign was planning on doing to Biden or Sanders what the Obama campaign did to Romney in 2012. Which is unload a huge advertising campaign against him while the candidate is still trying to recover from the Primary and raise money to compete in the general election so lacks the money to respond effectively. The virus outbreak put that on hold. 

 

finally, when it comes down to it, this election will be decided with what happens over the next 7 months. If the majority of the public feels as if the worst is behind them, the economy is recovering and things are getting back to normal, Trump likely wins. If they don't feel that way he loses.

 

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India looking at 100 cases today. Not good. 😔

Will give the full update at midnight (in 4hrs)

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Canada isn't sending athletes to the Olympics or the Paralympics.

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Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, PDC1987 said:

Not how this works. If you say screw it and send everyone back to work the number of cases skyrockets, and you also give the virus simply that much longer and that many more opportunities to mutate, and potentially turn into something that becomes more dangerous for younger people.

And if we still haven't stopped the virus at the point of months of shutdown (because all data points to this being a virus that inevitably comes back in waves), now we have a pandemic AND depression to contend with. No economy is going to support continual periods of shutdown without cracking eventually. We need to focus on how to get those who aren't high risk back to work, while still protecting the elderly/immune compromised as much as possible. 

Edited by MovieMan89
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2 hours ago, AndyK said:

If you look at # fatalities/population....Netherlands and Switzerland are in big trouble.

It's true but is there a list somewhere? Worldometers only has (confirmed) cases/population.

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9 hours ago, grim22 said:

Why would Democrats care if the stock market collapses? Most of the market doesn't affect regular Americans in any way, the biggest effect is 401ks only, everything else is affecting the very rich only. 

 

It is not just the stock market for now that is affected:

 

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/coronavirus-fears-spread-to-municipal-bond-market

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/bonds/covid-19-scare-freezes-bond-market/articleshow/74722430.cms

 

It is also affecting company capacity to finance themselve without going too much into debt.

 

Has for a market collapse, that do not affect regular Americans, what percentage of American household aged between 45 and 64 year's old directly or indirectly stock do you think ? It is significantly above 50% of them, regular Americans do own stock during their lifetime, it is irregular by now to not have them (outside being retired or very young, but those people will or had at some point), it is not like America before the 90s where it was a rare for the rich affair, in 2016 most of the stock (60%) were not owned by the top 1% in the USA (https://www.nber.org/papers/w24085.pdf).

 

Few or no Major Direct holding can make it a bit more opacted, but pension/mutual funds is quite common, not counting life and other insurance system that are build around markets return.

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I know he's been President for too long for me to still be stunned by his tweets, but how does he not have more important things to do today??

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

I know he's been President for too long for me to still be stunned by his tweets, but how does he not have more important things to do today??

 

 

He is a TV personality. That's what TV personality do. 

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

It's true but is there a list somewhere? Worldometers only has (confirmed) cases/population.

From those it should be possible to reverse engineer, using yesterday data

 

Not sure exactly if I did it correctly, but I manually validated france and netherlands and they seem to be good:

Population was: Total case * 1M/ Total by millions

Then my death by 1 million calculation was: Total death/(population/1M)

 

San Marino 589.4857
Italy 90.55984
Spain 37.88167
Iran 20.09104
Switzerland 11.32887
Netherlands 10.43173
France 10.30903
Belgium 6.461335
UK 4.15344
China 2.253017
Denmark 2.245878
Sweden 2.07394
S. Korea 2.033944
Austria 1.777778
Greece 1.442308
Portugal 1.37375
USA 1.261521
Germany 1.122422
Ecuador 0.798479
Canada 0.530612
Iraq 0.515021
Algeria 0.422886
Turkey 0.364078
Japan 0.33515
Malaysia 0.306279
Philippines 0.197368
Indonesia 0.18677
Egypt 0.12844
Brazil 0.113195

 

Those are country that had at least 10 deaths.

 

That do put Swiss/Netherlands quite high, S.Korea do show what is possible when you have great response I imagine.

Edited by Barnack
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9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

We are operating off of too much "potential" and "what if" though for this level of shutdown to continue for long. What we know so far is that the vast majority of healthy non-elderly people that get it are basically stuck with flu-esque symptoms that go away in a week or so without the need for any kind of hospitalization. People can suffer through that if it means we avoid a total economic collapse. Yes, there's a possibility the virus mutates into something worse that starts becoming a real threat to the young and healthy, but right now that's all hypothetical. And it's not a "what if" scenario that the economy collapses if this continues much longer, it's a certainty. And if we still haven't stopped the virus at that point (because all data points to this being a virus that inevitably comes back in waves), now we have a great depression AND pandemic to contend with. We need to focus on how to get most people back to work asap, while still protecting the elderly/immune compromised with the current measures. 

The issue has always been that if the virus spreads too rapidly it will overwhelm the healthcare system. The economy is going to be in a far worse shape if that happens. China shut everything down for 2 months and it looks like they've succeeded in slowing down the virus while not going into a great depression. It can be done. The recession is inevitable no matter what you do.

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2 hours ago, Hatebox said:

No he isn't. He's right in this case because he's stating the blindingly obvious, but most of the time he is not 'the brave lone voice saying what we're all secretly thinking' - as much as he tries to position himself as that.

 

 

His rants that make the headlines usually hit the nail on the head

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19 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

We are operating off of too much "potential" and "what if" though for this level of shutdown to continue for long. What we know so far is that the vast majority of healthy non-elderly people that get it are basically stuck with flu-esque symptoms that go away in a week or so without the need for any kind of hospitalization. People can suffer through that if it means we avoid a total economic collapse. Yes, there's a possibility the virus mutates into something worse that starts becoming a real threat to the young and healthy, but right now that's all hypothetical. And it's not a "what if" scenario that the economy collapses if this continues much longer, it's a certainty. And if we still haven't stopped the virus at that point (because all data points to this being a virus that inevitably comes back in waves), now we have a great depression AND pandemic to contend with. We need to focus on how to get most people back to work asap, while still protecting the elderly/immune compromised with the current measures. 

The UK turned socialist overnight. You'd be surprised what an economy can temporarily accommodate... if its politicians are willing. 

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4 minutes ago, MadJosh said:

His rants that make the headlines usually hit the nail on the head

In your opinion.

 

Let's not make this a thread about a talentless TV host.

 

Anyway. The latest news from UK seems to be suggesting that more strict measures will be enforced very soon.

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4 minutes ago, TLK said:

The issue has always been that if the virus spreads too rapidly it will overwhelm the healthcare system. The economy is going to be in a far worse shape if that happens. China shut everything down for 2 months and it looks like they've succeeded in slowing down the virus while not going into a great depression. It can be done. The recession is inevitable no matter what you do.

Nothing about the current signs of all this point to a mere recession though. I fail to see how that's possible with long term shutdown. People aren't looking at the long term picture of the economic effects. We need to enforce a nationwide lockdown for a couple weeks and then try to start getting as many who aren't in the high risk category back to work as possible. This staggered rollout of varying degrees of lockdown measures across the country isn't doing any favors. 

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6 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

The UK turned socialist overnight. You'd be surprised what an economy can temporarily accommodate... if its politicians are willing. 

This assumes our politicians will know how to cooperate if it gets really bad. I certainly don't have any faith in that given the last 4 years and what's already happening. 

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