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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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2 minutes ago, Jordanstine said:

Oh my....

 

It's shipping, not infected people in tight spaces like a airline cabin. Plus, shipping is absolutely essential for our survival. 

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18 minutes ago, Marcus Cato said:

The US administration was the first western state to ban travels from China as far as 31 Jan 2020, in contradiction with the recommendations of the World Health Organization. Without those measures, the situation would've been far worse.

The virus has been spreading in the US for weeks, in parts of the country there is almost no real effort to stop it. According to Cuomo the US has given up on trying to contain it in the long run and it will infect ~60% of the population. It can't get worse than that, travel bans alone don't fix anything and they certainly didn't accomplish anything in this case.

 

(China should keep a travel ban from the US now, not the other way around.)

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

The problem is that the current protective measures are all half assed.

 

How can you possibly expect this to be contained in a couple of weeks when we lacked testing for months, lack the amount of hospital beds necessary, lack ventilators, and (society as a whole) lack the ability to follow the inconsistent guidelines in place today? 

 

It's hilarious that anyone thinks we will be able to resume normal life within a month. Even funnier that people pushing for this idea aren't considering how that would destroy all of our (half-assed) mitigation efforts so far.

And some of Trump's tweets report he might go back to the "It's no worse then the flu" and back off on the restrictions because of economic issues.

He will let thousands of American die if he thinks it will help him be reelected.

I have nothng but contempt for anybody who supports or defend him.

 

Edited by dudalb
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1 hour ago, Andreas said:

This is better than yesterday, right?

Not enough to make any real difference.  f

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Posted (edited)

...

Edited by a2k

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1 minute ago, PDC1987 said:

It is literally on video.

What are you going to beleive,that lying video or the divine words of Dear Leader?

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15 minutes ago, Marcus Cato said:

I can give a lot more links, but it's enough for now.

The US administration was the first western state to ban travels from China as far as 31 Jan 2020, in contradiction with the recommendations of the World Health Organization. Without those measures, the situation would've been far worse. But or course many people will just ignore all this, and still push the same narrative dictated by their own preconceived ideas.

.


Reducing spread within the community is far more important than travel restrictions. Paper after paper in academic journals has shown this. Obviously there's a synergistic effect, but it would have been far better if the US government (and other Western governments) had immediately warned the public instead of playing down the threat, and aggressively moved to prepare testing kits and approve other facilities to run tests, so that cases could be identified and isolated.

The situation would not be far worse without the travel ban because the total cases that could have come from China is dwarfed by the amount of community spread that has occured. That's how exponential growth works.

I don't have time to dig up a dozen academic sources right now, but here's an example of a paper comparing travel restrictions to reducing community spread:
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/05/science.aba9757
 

Quote

Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.


For a more digestible model to show why distancing/isolation works better than quarantine:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Hong Kong is seeing a relatively rapid rise in new cases as they relaxed their measure.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/asia/hong-kong-coronavirus-quarantine-intl-hnk/index.html

 

Going back to the hardline measures.

 

 

The problem with "Flattening the curve" is that you turn it from a single raised cosine into a damped oscillating sine wave that carries on until there is no one left to infect.

 

Flattening the curve to the level that hospitals can cope with stretches the infection period from a few months to decades (sans a vaccine).

 

 

Edited by AndyK

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, dudalb said:

He will let thousands of American die if he thinks it will help him be reelected.

Won't killing off his base do the opposite though?

Edited by lorddemaxus

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Staples is still fucking open even after a lockdown in the state! 

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11 minutes ago, a2k said:

India 23rd March update

Total cases to date : 468 (+67)

Recovered : 35 (+12)

Death : 9 (+2)

 

 

Cases have already crossed 500. Where did you get this data? 

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11 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Won't killing off his base do the opposite though?

right now the vast majority of the cases and deaths are in 'blue' states. 

That would likely change with enough time. But given the much lower population density in most 'red' states, it is likely to spread more slowly in them simply due to natural distancing (as opposed to the artificial distancing being appled).

 

FWIW, i'm coming more and more to belief that the social distancing is going to fail. It just appears that most Western country citizens are unlikely to take part in the physical distancing necessary for it to truly work. Hopefully enough people do it to not completely overrun health facilities, but i'm not overly optimistic.

 

Just too many examples across both North America and Western Europe of people not heeding the advice to think it is going to work.

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Cases and deaths in Italy bend down for 2nd day in a row.   
 

4790 added to total cases, 602 added to deaths.

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43 minutes ago, lilmac said:

It doesn't change the fact that he has been one of the worst world leader's in response to this pandemic.

 

His response is putting thousands, if not millions at risk of dying or getting serious life debilitating diseases.

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Italy may, just may, have peaked. Took a hell of a lockdown, though. And the end's a long way off.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, AndyK said:

The problem with "Flattening the curve" is that you turn it from a single raised cosine into a damped oscillating sine wave that carries on until there is no one left to infect.

 

Flattening the curve to the level that hospitals can cope with stretches the infection period from a few months to decades (sans a vaccine).


You only get a "damped oscillating sine wave" if you relax the restrictions too far. Push down cases with very strong restrictions, then relax them so that R (the number of new infections per case) is kept below 1. Since the R0 of the virus is about ~2-2.5, maintenance restrictions that reduce transmission by 60% will be enough to prevent cases from rising again.

It's important to note that with increasing testing capacity, we will be able to find and selectively isolate more cases, allowing the rest of us to have more freedom while still keeping R below 1.
 

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

Staples is still fucking open even after a lockdown in the state! 


Have a friend that works at a Staples in NY. Apparently they've persuaded authorities they have an essential function as a source of supplies for home offices.

Honestly, transmission from any kind of social gathering is going to be way higher than from shopping at a Staples. That's the real target of a lockdown, people who insist on meeting up with friends to socialize (that's what's so bad about conferences, restaurants etc. - the social interaction). Probability of transmission decreases with proximity but increases with time, and ultimately social gatherings usually involve people staying closer together for longer than what you would see at a Staples.

I'm also told that they have red tape down on the floor in 6 foot intervals so that people keep that distance while lining up. Most people realize what it's for, but for the rest they comply after being told.

Edited by Jason
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