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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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Case now reported in Chicago. 

It was inevetible.

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In the US, people are peddling diluted industrial strength bleach as a cure for the virus...……..

Drink enough of that and you won't have to worry about the virus....

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It's important to remember that while there is a lag between sickness and death, there's also a lag between sickness and confirmation that the illness is being caused by the novel coronavirus.

Milder cases are actually the most likely to be missed by testing, and conversely any death caused by a respiratory illness is going to be tested. So the mortality rate of the novel coronavirus is probably not much more than 3% - maybe 4%, and there's a good chance it will turn out to be lower. (That said, even a mortality rate of 1% would be economically devastating if the virus isn't contained.)

The virus is also probably not much more inherently infectious than SARS - but China is more interconnected than it was back then so there's a chance they're not going to be able to contain the outbreak because of how much it spread in the month while they hushing it up. 

There has been some local transmission but no community spread outside of China, so healthy people wearing masks or avoiding going out in public etc. are overreacting. However, avoiding travel to China is prudent (to put it mildly), and the measures public health agencies are taking (testing, monitoring, quarantine of suspected/confirmed cases) are essential.

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2 hours ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Do the masks even do much? I keep hearing they aren't that effective.

 
They're very effective at blocking large droplets, the small ones can sneak in through the sides of a poorly-fitted mask, which tends to be the case when people who aren't healthcare professionals decide to wear one off the shelf.

Another problem is the masks are uncomfortable. So people start fidgeting with them, and if you're touching your face with hands you haven't washed, then you may as well not be wearing the mask.

Oh, and once masks become damp from breath, they become significantly less effective and need to be changed. (Healthcare professionals do this)

Given that there are not actually enough masks for *everyone* to be going through a dozen or so a day, best practices are frequent handwashing, and not going to work and school when you're sick.

Staying the hell away from anyone who is obviously sick and didn't have the decency to stay home is also a good call.

If you're sick and you *must* go out, wearing a mask will help prevent you from infecting others. (Again, change frequently)

Edited by Jason
typos...*sigh*
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1 hour ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Do the masks even do much? I keep hearing they aren't that effective.

Get an N100 respirator for $10-$40 with goggles

Edited by POTUS 2020

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3 hours ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Do the masks even do much? I keep hearing they aren't that effective.

 

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Moderation: Keep the politics to the politics thread (unless it's directly related to the virus).

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US just announced a travel advisory  for China recommending that people cancel travel to China.

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Moderation:- @POTUS 2020 has been thread banned for a week for offensive and off topic post. Anyone else posting off topic posts will be directly thread banned. This is not the thread to discuss politics.

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And more heavy duty restrictions on China travel  by the US Government including a quarantine. Not a ban yet, but it seems to be moving in that direction.

And a new case confirmed in Santa Clara, California.

I think it is not a case of if the virus is going to cause a death outside of CHina, but when.

Edited by dudalb

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On 1/27/2020 at 12:26 PM, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Info so far

 

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/second-presumptive-case-of-coronavirus-diagnosed-in-canada-first-case-confirmed-1.4784799

 

The woman and her 50-year old husband recently returned to Toronto from Wuhan. The husband was ambulanced to Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre in Toronto on January 23, while the wife has been in self-isolation since arriving in Toronto, Ontario health officials said.

 

The husband in the first case displayed mild symptoms on the flight and went to the hospital a day later as symptoms worsened. He is in stable condition and being kept in isolation at the hospital.

 

Officials are following protocols and trying to contact passengers on China Southern Airlines flight CZ311 from Guangzhou, China, who were in close proximity to the couple. The couple’s flight landed at Pearson International Airport at 3:46 p.m. on Jan 22. 

Williams said the entire plane was not at risk because it’s a “droplet-spread organism.”

Samples from both individuals were sent to the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg for full confirmation. There are 19 other cases under investigation, officials said, and another 15 ruled out as negative so far.

The husband was discharged today

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As a note the illness does not seem as deadly as SARS or MERS. I think the reason it spread quickly in China is likely because of the people per capita in whuhan

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Us australia and Italy have decided to ban Chinese Travelers unless their citizens of the country.

 

Nice to see that they have taken drastic action while the Canadian government focuses on hosting news conference virtue signaling about dont be mean to Asians...

 

If the outbreak spreads in Canada it will be their fault.

Edited by Lordmandeep
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3 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:

Us australia and Italy have decided to ban Chinese Travelers unless their citizens of the country.

 

Nice to see that they have taken drastic action while the Canadian government focuses on hosting news conference virtue signaling about dont be mean to Asians...

 

If the outbreak spreads in Canada it will be their fault.

Uh.... Yikes

 

During the SARS Outbreak, there was a rise in racism to Chinese-Canadians. The government does not want that to happen again 

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Barring non-citizens who have visited China is mostly a symbolic move rather than one likely to make any difference. Citizens have a right of return; monitoring, testing, and isolation where applicable are the steps that will prevent the virus from breaking out. The same steps can applied to non-citizens.

It's important to note that the risk of any particular traveller from China carry the virus is extraordinarily low, especially since an exit ban is exists for major cities near the epicenter of Wuhan. The exit ban covers approximately 7,000 of the confirmed 11,000 cases.

Papers from Northeastern University and Imperial College London estimate the total number of cases (including suspected cases and asymptomatic/incubating) to be about five times the number of confirmed cases. Even if we use the upper bound of their estimate, that would put the number of infected people in the rest of China at 40,000. That seems big, but the population of the rest of China is about 1.336 billion (minus the 50 million under quarantine)

That means the proportion of infected individuals in the rest of China is at most about 1 in 33,000. However, confirmed cases (4,000) and suspected cases (~7,000) are being isolated/quarantined. So of people you would actually come into contact with, about 1 in 45,000 would have the coronavirus using the worst-case estimate. Using the midline estimate, where more than half of people with coronavirus are already being isolated instead of about a quarter, people you would come into contact with would have a 1 in 150,000 chance of having coronavirus.

For perspective, in Wuhan, the proportion of infected individuals-at-large would be about 1 in 1,000 to about 1 in 3,000. (depending on the same assumptions made above)

The existing cases have very unsurprisingly been from people who travelled directly from Wuhan, or had close contact with people who had - but that part of China is now on lockdown, aside from non-Chinese being evacuated by their respective home countries. Note that Canada and other countries are only evacuating their citizens from the area covered by the exit ban, so barring non-citizens makes no difference in that case.

I'm not saying it's a great idea to travel to China if you're already here. But at this time, the risk for returning travellers is low enough that screening and monitoring are sufficient and appropriate, especially since citizens have a right to return anyway.

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3 hours ago, Reddroast said:

Uh.... Yikes

 

During the SARS Outbreak, there was a rise in racism to Chinese-Canadians. The government does not want that to happen again 

Lol it's already happening...

 

No one gives a fuck what Trudeau has to say as the reality is diease brings out fear in any people and such people will not change based on what our leaders say.

 

Pacific mall is like a ghostown...and it's not helping people in those areas are wearing masks which is just raising the paranoia up like crazy in the rest of society.

 

The focus is on prevention of further cases and a travel ban seems effective and the arguments against one seem to be based on political correctness.

 

 

The argument is that as the virus spreads more in china the chance of a traveller from china having the diease will increase.

 

Just let the disease run its course and normalize things and hopefully this will make the chinese take steps to prevent such diseases because the next one we may not be as lucky.

Edited by Lordmandeep

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