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1 minute ago, Maggie said:

I'm a little confused. Do people in the US actually use religion as a way to legitimize their decision to support Trump in this virus issue? I think they are blindly following Trump, but where does religion come up?

Well there are a lot of people here who think Trump is "chosen by God".

Edited by Menor
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5 minutes ago, ThePhasmid said:

I feel like the less fortunate are being targeted here. Those who are struggling to feed themselves and their loved ones are treated like enemies of the cause. They have to go outside. They have to shop for their children, parents, and partners with preexisting ailments. Telling the MAJORITY to "stay inside" requires a bit more nuance right now. I don't see that happening when our leaders are literally yelling at people walking outside. SHAME ON YOU.

 

You can't test us. You can't feed us. You can't shelter us. WHAT DO YOU EXPECT US TO DO?

They're not though. If you need to go get food or medical supplied, do it! The people that are being shamed are the people going to beaches and on Spring Break vacations. 

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https://covidactnow.org/

 

Is this site's projections too optimistic? Their predictions are much better than the predictions I'm seeing over here. I mean China did end up going back to normal sooner than we expected (even after the lockdowns most people, including China expected this to calm down in China in April but it will have calmed down by the end of March).

 

Edit: Italy's numbers are dropping sooner than expected too.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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18 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:


He married a normal person. 

 

28 minutes ago, dudalb said:

One of the most incredible transformations I have seen is Gates from a self centered stereotype of a geek to a genuine Humantarian.

 

He married a focus group marketing team 

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3 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I'm a little confused. Do people in the US actually use religion as a way to legitimize their decision to support Trump in this virus issue? I think they are blindly following Trump, but where does religion come up?

 

Some do in a literal sense, yes. They believe Trump is the "chosen one", or that everything that happens is "God's will" and hence unavoidable. This faction believes that God works through Trump, so whatever he does is the right thing.

 

There's a stronger correlation, though, between those who are more religious and blindly following the Republican party on all issues. The Republican party has tailored their platform to maximize this. They are pro-life / anti-abortion, pro-gun / 2nd Amendment, etc. This faction may not agree with everything Trump and the GOP do, but they damn sure will defend it anyway. It's "their team" and they'll support it to the end. They will selectively choose which information they accept and what they reject based on what supports the official party position. It works just like Religion. You're told what to believe, and to ignore anything that brings those beliefs into question.

 

The modern Republican party voting block is made up of people in that second faction. They watch Fox News or listen to people like Rush Limbaugh, and do not live in reality. They have a curated view of everything. Independent thinking is not only discouraged, it is viciously attacked. Intelligence is bad, it is labeled elitist.  It is the party of Reagan in full bloom.

 

These people do not think the virus is any worse than the flu, because that is what they've been told since before the US outbreak.

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5 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

https://covidactnow.org/

 

Is this site's projections too optimistic? Their predictions are much better than the predictions I'm seeing over here. I mean China did end up going back to normal sooner than we expected (even after the lockdowns most people, including China expected this to calm down in China in April but it will have calmed down by the end of March).

Not a chance any state does 3 months lockdown. Many will fully open by end of April. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump really does push for April 12th guideline.

 

He probably got early access to q1 numbers showing a decline, Q2 is already a lock to go slower. He's desperate to make sure q3 is good. If it's not he's a lock to lose, hell even to Bernie. Ok not Bernie but anyone else.

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Here's the irony. The more we flatten the curve, the more Trump is convinced lockdowns are useless.

 

So even if the lockdowns work Trump is going to claim they're a waste of time. This means alot of red states are going end lockdowns and we're going to have an Italy/Spain situation. 

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Just now, cdsacken said:

Not a chance any state does 3 months lockdown. Many will fully open by end of April. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump really does push for April 12th guideline.

 

He probably got early access to q1 numbers showing a decline, Q2 is already a lock to go slower. He's desperate to make sure q3 is good. If it's not he's a lock to lose, hell even to Bernie. Ok not Bernie but anyone else.

Yeah, a 3 month lockdown won't happen but will this subsidise by the end of June at the latest like they are projecting is my question. 

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19 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I'm a little confused. Do people in the US actually use religion as a way to legitimize their decision to support Trump in this virus issue? I think they are blindly following Trump, but where does religion come up?

Trump just yesterday said in his COVID press conference that an unproven drug combination he's pushing is a "gift from god".

 

People just eat it up.

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8 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

https://covidactnow.org/

 

Is this site's projections too optimistic? Their predictions are much better than the predictions I'm seeing over here. I mean China did end up going back to normal sooner than we expected (even after the lockdowns most people, including China expected this to calm down in China in April but it will have calmed down by the end of March).

 

Edit: Italy's numbers are dropping sooner than expected too.

I could be wrong, but I think their model is way too optimistic. They seem to not take into account the lag time between containment measure implementation and when the virus spread actually starts to slow down. Their point of no return dates are too far out in the future.

 

For example, they have Michigan peaking at 5k hospitalizations in May. I expect we'll hit that number way sooner. Shelter in place just started today, so it'll be a week before the spread of the virus is impacted. 

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6 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Not a chance any state does 3 months lockdown. Many will fully open by end of April. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump really does push for April 12th guideline.

 

He probably got early access to q1 numbers showing a decline, Q2 is already a lock to go slower. He's desperate to make sure q3 is good. If it's not he's a lock to lose, hell even to Bernie. Ok not Bernie but anyone else.

3 months of lockdown? No.

 

3 weeks of lockdown? Also no.

 

Many states will fully open by the end of April, in a month from now? Incredibly optimistic to say, given not even China is back to normal yet.

 

This expectation that daily live will be able to resume in the states within a month is FUCKING RIDICULOUS.

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2 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

More or less except the entire country remains on alert against the coronavirus for the foreseeable future.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/19/chinas-coronavirus-lockdown-strategy-brutal-but-effective

What is normal for a country that suppresses information, and allows the people willing to tell the truth to perish alongside the world? Is it effective? Are they telling the truth? Trump is awful, but I would gander to say JinPing is worse.

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1 minute ago, ThePhasmid said:

Trump is awful, but I would gander to say JinPing is worse.

In what respect? Not fighting a pandemic, that's for sure.

 

As for what is normal, China is reopening movie theaters for example.

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19 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

https://covidactnow.org/

 

Is this site's projections too optimistic? Their predictions are much better than the predictions I'm seeing over here. I mean China did end up going back to normal sooner than we expected (even after the lockdowns most people, including China expected this to calm down in China in April but it will have calmed down by the end of March).

 

Edit: Italy's numbers are dropping sooner than expected too.

Let's read the fine print (website's "Model" section)

 

  • Only a small fraction of the world has been infected. It’s a new disease. Variables will change.
  • R0s for interventions are guesses, in some cases informed by data. There is no historical precedent for what is going on right now to draw from.
  • The default R0 used in this model is an average. The model does not adjust for the population density, culturally-determined interaction frequency and closeness, humidity, temperature, etc in calculating R0.
  • This is not a node-based analysis, and thus assumes everyone spreads the disease at the same rate. In practice, there are some folks who are “super-spreaders,” and others who are almost isolated. Interventions should be targeted primarily at those most likely to spread the disease.
  • Only hospital beds at aggregate are considered. ICU beds and ventilators, which are likely to run low before beds, are not considered.
  • Demographics, populations, and hospital bed counts are outdated. Demographics for the USA as a whole are used, rather than specific to each state.
  • In containment cases, we do not deal with the longer-term impacts of maintaining containment, primarily the concern with avoiding reintroduction of the disease due to incoming travelers. 14-day mandatory border quarantines, such as those currently in place in China, would likely need to continue until a vaccine or therapeutic is developed.

 

Don't read too much into this model.

 

Regarding Italy, yes it looks like their numbers are dropping. When you consider that 4,000 new cases today is still level with 4,000 new cases a week ago, it's still a total nightmare, and will remain as such for weeks, as the death toll rises (remember, that lags behind the new case counts). There is by no means a victory in Italy at the moment.

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NY Gov Andrew Cuomo on opening the Economy...

Quote

First order of business is save lives period. Whatever it costs. Now I also don't believe it's an either-or. I believe you can have an intelligently refined public health strategy. You talk about risk stratification. You can have people go to work. You can test people and find out that they are resolved from the virus, let them go back to work. You can have younger people go back to work. You can have an economic startup strategy that is consistent with the public health strategy. It's smart, it's complicated it's sophisticated but that's what govt is supposed to do right? That whole concept of develop government policy and program. You can do both but not in a clumsy hand handed way, right? Well we will sacrifice old people they are old people anyway, and the old get left behind. What is this some modern Darwinian theory of natural selection. You can't keep up so the band is gonna leave you behind. We are gonna move on and if you can't keep up, well then you just fall by the wayside of life. God forbid.

 

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24 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Yeah, a 3 month lockdown won't happen but will this subsidise by the end of June at the latest like they are projecting is my question. 

Probably not. I mean it no vaccine a surge in winter is likely no?

Edited by cdsacken
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10 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Here's the irony. The more we flatten the curve, the more Trump is convinced lockdowns are useless.

 

So even if the lockdowns work Trump is going to claim they're a waste of time. This means alot of red states are going end lockdowns and we're going to have an Italy/Spain situation. 

Sadly, I think that situation is inevitable already, even with current lockdowns in place. If we had done more testing we'd have a better idea of exactly how bad things look.

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