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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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12 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

900,000 more confirmed cases in 14 days (assuming it reaches 100k tomm)? Seems hard to me. Doubt testing will be large enough for that to happen.

 

If this is including cases that haven't been tested, yeah I wouldn't be surprised if that number reaches a million by the end of next week.

Tmrw 110k, x9 in 14 days is easy peasy. Kind of doubt it takes until the 9th tbh.  
 

Including untested we probably hit 1M in the past, not the future.   
 

It’s possible that we can’t grow test capacity fast enough, perhaps. I’m definitely not an expert of the testing supply chain.

Edited by Arendelle Legion

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This is imperial colleges updated model predicting total fatalities for each country, Spain is in deep trouble.

 

EUDjRzvWoAMQ8xx?format=jpg&name=large

 

This was calculated on 20th March so it looks like quite an overestimate as Italy will not reach 1200/day by tomorrow.

 

Source - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20041475v1.full.pdf

Edited by AndyK

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NSW increase in cases over the last 4 days. 
 

Mon 8pm: +149

Tue 8pm: +211

Wed 8pm: +190

Thu 8pm: +186

 

Total cases now 1405. 877 of those cases are overseas acquired, 278 are locally acquired.  Hopefully this levelling off in new cases will continue. 

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11 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Tmrw 110k, x9 in 14 days is easy peasy. Kind of doubt it takes until the 9th tbh.  
 

Including untested we probably hit 1M in the past, not the future.   
 

It’s possible that we can’t grow test capacity fast enough, perhaps. I’m definitely not an expert of the testing supply chain.

No way it hits 1M officially. that requires 10M tests at minimum or more. But including those untested one might already be close if we go by 10x more infected than reported. 

 

Rumors for china was 1000x greater than reported. so 80m cases and 3m deaths.  

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26 minutes ago, a2k said:

Why is NY so ahead? Edit: NYC I guess but there are other big metros (Chicago, LA) too.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (Top 5 states)

USA
State
Total
Cases
New
Cases
Total
Deaths
New
Deaths
Active
Cases
Source
New York 37,738 +4,772 385 +19 35,836 [source] [source] [source] [source] [source] [source
New Jersey 6,876 +2,474 81 +19 6,795 [source] [source] [source] [source
California 3,718 +720 78 +13 3,632 [source] [source] [source
Michigan 2,856 +561 60 +17 2,791 [source] [source] [source
Washington 2,588   132   2,332 [source] [source] [source] [source


Massive transportation hub plus lack of preparedness plus densely-packed population plus big ramp-up in testing. 

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1 minute ago, DeeCee said:

NSW increase in cases over the last 4 days. 
 

Mon 8pm: +149

Tue 8pm: +211

Wed 8pm: +190

Thu 8pm: +186

 

Total cases now 1405. 877 of those cases are overseas acquired, 278 are locally acquired.  Hopefully this levelling off in new cases will continue. 

what is the ratio of positive to overall tests?

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1 hour ago, Plain Old Tele said:

 

Darwinism in action.

I admit, I have images of Jesus telling the guy to go to hell, literally. You just don't make the grade.

My opinion of Christinity is like Gandhi's

 

"I like Jesus Christ  a lot, but some of his followers...not so much".

 

Edited by dudalb

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26 minutes ago, PDC1987 said:

Isn't NY doing the most aggressive testing?

25% of tests in usa were done in NY (March 26 noon data).

https://wbng.com/2020/03/26/cuomo-new-york-tests-up-to-more-than-18000-people-for-covid19-a-day/

 

But It has a much higher, 46% of total cases (37.74/82.15)

 

 edit:

3 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:


Massive transportation hub plus lack of preparedness plus densely-packed population plus big ramp-up in testing. 

yep makes sense. though in terms of preparedness guessing it wasn't much different than other metros?

 

Edited by a2k
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24 minutes ago, cannastop said:

The US just passed China in number of confirmed cases.

Don't forget that China has changed the way it counts covid-19 cases three times in february 2020. They stopped counting patients who have tested positive in the lab but haven't shown any symptoms. Even "clinically confirmed" cases were excluded from the tally of confirmed cases. So we will never know the actual number of total cases in China.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/21/health/coronavirus-reported-cases-covid-19-change-intl/index.html

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12 minutes ago, AndyK said:

This is imperial colleges updated model predicting total fatalities for each country, Spain is in deep trouble.

 

EUDjRzvWoAMQ8xx?format=jpg&name=large

That model, especially for the US numbers, seems way off on the low side. They model only 28k-41k deaths, and a peak of 1k-1.9k deaths a day in the US. That would be terrible, yet experts are projecting far worse. NYC is on track to surpass those numbers, let alone the whole of the US. I just don't see how that can be viewed as an accurate projection.

 

To me, this shows that either China lied about the seriousness of the problem, or they took such extreme measures to suppress the virus that no Western nation is coming close to being that successful. Perhaps it is a mixture of both.

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Oh God the numbers coming from France are horrible. We now have the third Italy in Europe:whosad:

Romania is also looking worse and worse. The whole staff in Suceava's biggest hospital is infected, after the manager carelessly and stupidly told all of his employees to come to work (even the ones being positively confirmed). 9 new deaths occurred today in Romania, including a 45 and a 49-year old... :(

Edited by Andreas
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Just now, Andreas said:

Oh God the numbers coming from France are horrible. We now have the third Italy in Europe:whosad:

Romania is also looking worse and worse. The whole staff in Suceava's biggest hospital is infected, after the manager carelessly and stupidly told all of his employees to come to work (even the ones being positively confirmed). 9 new deaths occurred today in Romania, including a 45 and a 49-year old... :(

Just wait for the numbers after the US "reopens"......

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21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

No way it hits 1M officially. that requires 10M tests at minimum or more. But including those untested one might already be close if we go by 10x more infected than reported. 

 

Rumors for china was 1000x greater than reported. so 80m cases and 3m deaths.  

Honestly I feel like there is more and more evidence coming up that shows that this thing has a much larger R0 but lower death per infections than we expected. That's why I personally think this has been spreading widely across the world since Jan but has only been noticed recently.

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1 hour ago, The GOAT said:

Wouldn't be surprising if we reach 7 figures by the end of April. 

Won't take that long after Donnie reopens the country.

 

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9 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Wow, a ruthless authoratarian dictatorship lies. Who would have thunk it?

 

Literally every country is lying about its numbers, not just China. 

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4 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Literally every country is lying about its numbers, not just China. 

 

Gonna be a fascinating report 3 years from now when we find out how much everyone is lying, and who lied the most and who lied the least (since I expect we'll get the same kinda data deep dive when this is mostly over like we got for swine flu)...

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Lol, Trump is hilarious, what a moron. 
 

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2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Literally every country is lying about its numbers, not just China. 

That's bullshit ... most countries don't lie but what gets reported as cases are the positive tests, so when you're doint little testing, you get little cases (if you count that as lying - some just don't have the capacity for more tests; Austria's labs are working 24/7 and are steadily expanding their capacity along the way, and I guess that's the case in many countries)

 

So what you want to look at for "hard" numbers are IC cases and deaths. And even those are not really comparable on a 1:1 base; obviously Italy is reporting every death which gets tested positive as a Covid19 death while other countries don't do this. (Remember, most of the victims already do have serious problems - asthmatic, diabetic ... - so there's always room for doubt)

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24 minutes ago, doublejack said:

That model, especially for the US numbers, seems way off on the low side. They model only 28k-41k deaths, and a peak of 1k-1.9k deaths a day in the US. That would be terrible, yet experts are projecting far worse. NYC is on track to surpass those numbers, let alone the whole of the US. I just don't see how that can be viewed as an accurate projection.

 

To me, this shows that either China lied about the seriousness of the problem, or they took such extreme measures to suppress the virus that no Western nation is coming close to being that successful. Perhaps it is a mixture of both.

Actually it looks like an overestimate, look at the Italy peak numbers, it says 1200/day by the 27th, thats tomorrow, no way Italy are going to hit those numbers. Also it all depends on the current measures being maintained, it will go pear shape if the measures are removed.

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35 minutes ago, AndyK said:

This is imperial colleges updated model predicting total fatalities for each country, Spain is in deep trouble.

 

EUDjRzvWoAMQ8xx?format=jpg&name=large

 

This was calculated on 20th March so it looks like quite an overestimate as Italy will not reach 1200/day by tomorrow.

 

Source - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20041475v1.full.pdf

What are those numbers even supposed to mean? 
Why would anybody compare anything to China with completely different measures to prevent the spread?

 

We are at the absolute beginning if the pandemic and those countries won't be able to keep the current measures forever. 

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