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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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36 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Rumors for china was 1000x greater than reported. so 80m cases and 3m deaths.  

Who ever claimed that? No country has perfect or even good accuracy for their numbers but those "rumors" for the death toll are completely ridiculous, more like misinformation: the contagion in China was mostly in the region of Hubei (pop. 58.5m).

 

In general there is no reason to doubt China's numbers more than the average country.

26 minutes ago, doublejack said:

 

To me, this shows that either China lied about the seriousness of the problem, or they took such extreme measures to suppress the virus that no Western nation is coming close to being that successful. Perhaps it is a mixture of both.

The latter, the measures in China have been far more extensive than just a lockdown, and continue to this day. From what we have seen so far, there is no reason to expect any non-Asian country to be as successful.

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btw, as to reaching seven-digits in the US ... there's a very high probability you're already there.

With >1000 deaths and 1 death corresponding to about 200 "real" cases (using the current 0,5% mortality rate) at the date of infection, this would mean >200.000 cases about 10 days ago ... since lockdown has only begun in the last few days, this has not had any effect yet, so you take the usual rate of doubling every 2 - 3 days and you're well beyond a million by now.

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27 minutes ago, Andreas said:

Oh God the numbers coming from France are horrible. We now have the third Italy in Europe:whosad:

 

These European lockdowns are nearly useless. Every country is still jumping a lot in new cases day by day. We are all going to be Italys, it is not a matter of "If" but "When".

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1 minute ago, CJohn said:

These European lockdowns are nearly useless. Every country is still jumping a lot in new cases day by day.

Again, the prediction for Italy's lockdown back when it started is that it would have an effect at the end of this month - after three weeks. We are not even there yet, hopefully we will soon see a peak (the number of deaths in Italy has been stable for a few days).

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16 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

btw, as to reaching seven-digits in the US ... there's a very high probability you're already there.

With >1000 deaths and 1 death corresponding to about 200 "real" cases (using the current 0,5% mortality rate) at the date of infection, this would mean >200.000 cases about 10 days ago ... since lockdown has only begun in the last few days, this has not had any effect yet, so you take the usual rate of doubling every 2 - 3 days and you're well beyond a million by now.

But ..but..I was told it was only 15 and would soon be down to nothing.

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21 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Who ever claimed that? No country has perfect or even good accuracy for their numbers but those "rumors" for the death toll are completely ridiculous, more like misinformation: the contagion in China was mostly in the region of Hubei (pop. 58.5m).

 

In general there is no reason to doubt China's numbers more than the average country.

The latter, the measures in China have been far more extensive than just a lockdown, and continue to this day. From what we have seen so far, there is no reason to expect any non-Asian country to be as successful.

Not to mention they have previous experience with SARS, both them and Korea were vigilant and perfectly set up to suppress any outbreak.

 

This is just a lesson learned by western nations, we will be prepared next time.

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6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

These European lockdowns are nearly useless. Every country is still jumping a lot in new cases day by day. We are all going to be Italys, it is not a matter of "If" but "When".

Not they're NOT useless.

In Austria, we started with 40% increases until March 13th. Big events were already forbidden then, schools and universities  were closed on 13th too and on 17th every kind of gastronomy except take-away food.

Daily increases have been - slowly - decreasing since then but the effects are only showing over time thanks to the long incubation period. But today and yesterday, we've had <15% increases. At this rate, and if increases continue to get smaller, we might reach a kind of "peak" at or after easter weekend, meaning there's as many newly infected as recovered.

That wouldn't mean an end to the lockdown but it might become less strict - business opening again (under certain contrstraints, say, a certain number of shoppers allowed); maybe even some schools. No light on the horizon for travel and gastronomy though, I fear - until a cure is available, some kind of restrictions will stay in place at least through summer. No big public events 😟 and, probably, no movies :rant:

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14 minutes ago, CJohn said:

These European lockdowns are nearly useless. Every country is still jumping a lot in new cases day by day. We are all going to be Italys, it is not a matter of "If" but "When".

That is bullshit.

Think of how much worse it would be if Italy did not have lockdowns.

That's the  point as bad as it is it could get much,much worse.

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1 minute ago, AndyK said:

Not to mention they have previous experience with SARS, both them and Korea were vigilant and perfectly set up to suppress any outbreak.

 

This is just a lesson learned by western nations, we will be prepared next time.

Not with the current bunch of  idiots in charge of many Western nations.

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19 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Actually it looks like an overestimate, look at the Italy peak numbers, it says 1200/day by the 27th, thats tomorrow, no way Italy are going to hit those numbers. Also it all depends on the current measures being maintained, it will go pear shape if the measures are removed.

Yeah, that's part of what makes the projection a poor one. It would be great if Italy were just hitting the peak. I do not believe they are, yet. I know the numbers have stabilized over the past few days, but I do not expect that to hold. The number of cases will rise, and how long the lockdown remains in place is a big wild card.

 

I don't think China can be used as a model for Western nations. Too dissimilar. 

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4 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Not they're NOT useless.

In Austria, we started with 40% increases until March 13th. Big events were already forbidden then, schools and universities  were closed on 13th too and on 17th every kind of gastronomy except take-away food.

Daily increases have been - slowly - decreasing since then but the effects are only showing over time thanks to the long incubation period. But today and yesterday, we've had <15% increases. At this rate, and if increases continue to get smaller, we might reach a kind of "peak" at or after easter weekend, meaning there's as many newly infected as recovered.

That wouldn't mean an end to the lockdown but it might become less strict - business opening again (under certain contrstraints, say, a certain number of shoppers allowed); maybe even some schools. No light on the horizon for travel and gastronomy though, I fear - until a cure is available, some kind of restrictions will stay in place at least through summer. No big public events 😟

Seems like cases today are way up with over 1200. Though yesterday's were very low falling from 800 to 300 so maybe some of yesterday's got pushed into today for some reason. What source are you using ??

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1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

what is the ratio of positive to overall tests?

This was from a press conference and they didn’t say the total test count. Assuming it’s at around 80,000 that would make it about 1.7%. 

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24 minutes ago, CJohn said:

These European lockdowns are nearly useless. Every country is still jumping a lot in new cases day by day. We are all going to be Italys, it is not a matter of "If" but "When".

I believe you're right. To think both Lombardy and the region around Madrid have some of the best health care there is in Europe... it's gonna get bad

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11 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

 

That wouldn't mean an end to the lockdown but it might become less strict - business opening again (under certain contrstraints, say, a certain number of shoppers allowed); maybe even some schools. No light on the horizon for travel and gastronomy though, I fear - until a cure is available, some kind of restrictions will stay in place at least through summer. No big public events 😟 and, probably, no movies :rant:

Antibody tests may also be available to the public by then too I think which means that we can find out if people are immune to the virus after getting it and we can start sending recovered people who are immune back to work. 

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4 minutes ago, Killimano3 said:

Seems like cases today are way up with over 1200. Though yesterday's were very low falling from 800 to 300 so maybe some of yesterday's got pushed into today for some reason. What source are you using ??

https://info.gesundheitsministerium.at/

those increases are counted every day with the 15:00 numbers but are really kind of floating as it depends on when the regional labs transmit their numbers.

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2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Antibody tests may also be available to the public by then too I think which means that we can find out if people are immune to the virus after getting it and we can start sending recovered people who are immune back to work. 

yep that's another hope ... atm there's obviously still a 25% fault possibility with those test so they're really no use at all except maybe for statistical purposes (which nobody has time for, obviously, just now)

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4 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

yep that's another hope ... atm there's obviously still a 25% fault possibility with those test so they're really no use at all except maybe for statistical purposes (which nobody has time for, obviously, just now)

Have coronavirus antibody tests been used yet? I have no info on their accuracy. Just that they will be shipped to coronavirus workers next week and that the UK has bought 3.5 million of them.

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