Jump to content
DeeCee

Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, AJG said:

 

I wish celebrities would just chill out for 2 weeks and leave people alone. We dont need Kate Winslet telling us how to wash our hands.

On a high horse, are we?

Let's be honest;people pay more attention when Kate Winslet does a video on the topic then if somebody from the CDC who people have never heard of does soemthing.

These stars are doing a public service at the request of a major univnersity. You need to chill out.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/26/2020 at 5:02 AM, doublejack said:

Conjecture among experts is that China's official COVID numbers are not real. The only question is, how far worse was the actual situation? Just looking at Italy, their number of cases and the measures they have taken, and comparing that to the timeline in China it is pretty obvious that there must have been more cases than China admits to.

 

It'll be interesting to see if outsiders can piece together an approximate count using other data.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7971401/Have-real-coronavirus-death-figures-leaked-Chinese-conglomerate-lists-death-toll-24-589.html

 

There was a report said China accidentally “leaked" the actual figure online, before it was "altered" to the "correct" figure.

The screenshot showed 154k confirmed cases and 24589 death as of 02Feb2020.

 

I remembered when I first read the news, I laughed at the report and was thinking how absurd it was.

 

Now looking at how many countries can have super breakout in just 2 weeks, The "leaked" figure may no longer unrealistic & impossible given China basically did nothing since its first detection on 17Nov2019. That was full 2 months before the Wuhan lockdown. 

 

 

 w 

 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_27marzo ENG.pdf

 

Some data based on Italy's infection-and death rate (updated just now). Interesting to see that:

- Out of all the deaths, not a single one occurred in under-30 year olds.

- Just 4.7% of the deaths recorded in people under 60, while just 1.1% in 30-50.

this data is based on around 85% of all reported deaths (7.590/9.134)

 

Out of all clinically confirmed patients, only 17.5% show severe symptoms, while just 4.4% are in critical condition, meaning that almost 80% of all patients (age not taken into consideration) show only mild symptoms or are asymptomatic.

this data is based on around 27% of all reported cases (22.077/86.498)

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, dudalb said:

I am getting sick and tired of saying this but...

It would be a LOT worse without the Lockdown.

Why can't people understand this?

Problem is people want a quick instant fix for this problem. There isn't one.

South Korea managed to reverse the curve without aggressive lockdown, similar observed in japan. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Madhuvan said:

While I don't like Indian Government at all, I am actually happy with the development. 

 

Yes, cases are increases as testing is also increasing. 

The best thing is that we are already quarantined and most of the Indians are actually following this order. 

 

There are obvious failure to this lockdown but slowly-slowly things are more hopeful. 

 

India can't handle situation like Italy, Spain and USA. We are not capable of that level of management. 

 

🤞🤞

India did well in some departments. The only thing that really pains me is migrant workers on foot. Especially ones carrying kids and not having access to water. 😢

  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

I wish celebrities would just chill out for 2 weeks and leave people alone. We dont need Kate Winslet telling us how to wash our hands.

What is wrong with people just to do something meaningful or could be beneficial to public?

 

It doesn't hurt anyone. Plus, they weren't recording the video outside.

Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

I wish celebrities would just chill out for 2 weeks and leave people alone. We dont need Kate Winslet telling us how to wash our hands.

 

34 minutes ago, dudalb said:

On a high horse, are we?

Let's be honest;people pay more attention when Kate Winslet does a video on the topic then if somebody from the CDC who people have never heard of does soemthing.

These stars are doing a public service at the request of a major univnersity. You need to chill out.

Have to agree with dudalb on this one (although I'm not gonna personally attack you @AJG). People clearly aren't listening to recommendations, so maybe Jason Bourne telling them what to do may make them listen for once :lol: it's not like it'll do any harm. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dudalb said:

Why should we unite under inept and stupid  leaders?

 

Actually most of the western leaders have reacted strongly after the initial slow response from almost every country. There are draconian measures everywhere and most of the western countries are in lockdown. In contrast China has decided in february to change the way they are counting new cases.. "let's just arbitrarily change the rules as we see fit, and just claim we don't have anymore cases, and that's it, problem solved",

Edited by Marcus Cato
Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

South Korea managed to reverse the curve without aggressive lockdown, similar observed in japan. 

That is because they jumped on it early . Most Western nations did not.Too late for that approach now.

If you advocating ending lockdowns, you advocate killing tens of thousands of people.

 

Edited by dudalb
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Preach, John Scalzi. Preach. 
 

Distance and Patience and This Moment of Time
 

The frustrating thing for me during this moment of time that we’re in is that I don’t think it’s quite sunk in to some folks that this virus doesn’t care about politics, or the economy, or in fact any human concern at all. It doesn’t care about anything. It just wants to spread, and will take any opportunity it is given to do so, to rich or poor, conservative or liberal, to any person regardless of their situation or circumstance or makeup.

 

https://whatever.scalzi.com/2020/03/27/distance-and-patience-and-this-moment-of-time/

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Plain Old Tele said:

Preach, John Scalzi. Preach. 
 

Distance and Patience and This Moment of Time
 

The frustrating thing for me during this moment of time that we’re in is that I don’t think it’s quite sunk in to some folks that this virus doesn’t care about politics, or the economy, or in fact any human concern at all. It doesn’t care about anything. It just wants to spread, and will take any opportunity it is given to do so, to rich or poor, conservative or liberal, to any person regardless of their situation or circumstance or makeup.

 

https://whatever.scalzi.com/2020/03/27/distance-and-patience-and-this-moment-of-time/

A lot of people in the US who think the Virus is a Blue State disease are in for a rude awakening.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The Governor of Alabama refuses to take any measures, saying "Alabama is not California".

God, we should have let Misisisippi and Alabama leave back in 1860 when we had the chance to get rid of them.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, dudalb said:

That is because they jumped on it early . Most Western nations did not.Too late for that approach now.

If you advocating ending lockdowns, you advocate killing tens of thousands of people.

 

It is not about ending the lockdown, it is about getting an alternative or at least supplementary measurement to tackle the outbreak.

 

it seems like Italy is putting all the hope on the effectiveness of lockdown.     

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, The Panda said:

You aren’t looking at the reason behind those numbers.  In my original post, and posts that have followed, I was not downplaying the long term scarring effects that happen with recessions and depressions.  I was pointing out however how significant the Great Depression was and how that circumstance is a poor comparison to the economic conditions we face now.

 

In simplest form: We are facing an external demand shock that is being dealt with expansionary fiscal  and monetary policy, unlike in the Great Depression which was a collapse of a fundamental institution that the government responded to with counterproductive, contractionary policy.  
 

There’s certainly some long term scarring effects from this recession that’ll need to be addressed.  And these scarring effects could very likely be on the worse end of recessions post-WW2.  But nothing’s changed in the last week to think we’re heading for a massive slowdown that’ll last over a decade.

 

12 hours ago, The Panda said:

It’s not just about reaching peak Great Depression unemployment numbers.  To be worse than that depression you’d have to hit them and have massive unemployment numbers be sustained for a very prolonged period of time (years, not months).  That’s part of what I’m meaning when I’m saying it’s foolish to compare this to the Great Depression.

 

As of now, it does not seem plausible to think the 2020s as a decade will be defined by the COVID Recession.

 

I'll reply to both of these with one post. So, I'll start by saying that my comparison of the downturn we're entering to the one known as the Great Depression is not a claim that this new downturn will last a decade. I think we have learned a lot from previous contractions and will, globally and in the US, provide enough stimulus and other changes to get things going again well before a decade. At least that's my hope. I do think this downturn will last for at least 2-3 years, though, at a minimum. It will be as deep as the Great Depression, possibly deeper, and take longer to resolve than recessions in more recent times.

 

That said, we have a disagreement, I believe, on the underlying financial situation. I view the coronavirus as the fuse, it is not the financial bomb. There are parallels from the last 10 years to the Roaring 20's. We have consolidation of wealth and low tax rates on top earners and large corporations. The top 1% and top .1% are disproportionately wealthy, as they were in the 20s. It is a very unhealthy financial situation for society. This has left all too many people with little or no net worth, living paycheck to paycheck. There are in fact still many who are not financially recovered from the 2008-09 recession, where foreclosures and bankruptcies were at a high rate. This time around there will be medical bills in the US combined with a large number who lose medical coverage due to unemployment. Student loan debt is massive for many. Replacing lost wages with stimulus will help, but it doesn't solve every problem.

 

The result will be a lasting demand side contraction. Paycheck to paycheck and credit card driven demand is fragile, it will not survive this shock. The savings rates are too low to find any relief there. I believe the virus will impact demand until there is an effective vaccine, which we know is quite a ways off. The worse effect, though, will be the lack of demand caused by millions who are left in financial ruin triggered by the virus and related economic collapse. If demand takes years to recover, unemployment will remain high for years. It becomes a vicious cycle.

 

Large social issues such as tax rates and health care coverage are going to have to be tackled before this will get better. That is where the comparisons to the Great Depression really come through. Social security was born from the great depression. I think there's a good chance universal healthcare comes to the US as a result of the situation that is unfolding now.

 

A very bad recession or depression was coming. Economists have been sounding the alarm for a while now. Coronavirus was just the tipping point.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

It is not about ending the lockdown, it is about getting an alternative or at least supplementary measurement to tackle the outbreak.

 

it seems like Italy is putting all the hope on the effectiveness of lockdown.     

What other measures are there?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, doublejack said:

 

 

I'll reply to both of these with one post. So, I'll start by saying that my comparison of the downturn we're entering to the one known as the Great Depression is not a claim that this new downturn will last a decade. I think we have learned a lot from previous contractions and will, globally and in the US, provide enough stimulus and other changes to get things going again well before a decade. At least that's my hope. I do think this downturn will last for at least 2-3 years, though, at a minimum. It will be as deep as the Great Depression, possibly deeper, and take longer to resolve than recessions in more recent times.

 

That said, we have a disagreement, I believe, on the underlying financial situation. I view the coronavirus as the fuse, it is not the financial bomb. There are parallels from the last 10 years to the Roaring 20's. We have consolidation of wealth and low tax rates on top earners and large corporations. The top 1% and top .1% are disproportionately wealthy, as they were in the 20s. It is a very unhealthy financial situation for society. This has left all too many people with little or no net worth, living paycheck to paycheck. There are in fact still many who are not financially recovered from the 2008-09 recession, where foreclosures and bankruptcies were at a high rate. This time around there will be medical bills in the US combined with a large number who lose medical coverage due to unemployment. Student loan debt is massive for many. Replacing lost wages with stimulus will help, but it doesn't solve every problem.

 

The result will be a lasting demand side contraction. Paycheck to paycheck and credit card driven demand is fragile, it will not survive this shock. The savings rates are too low to find any relief there. I believe the virus will impact demand until there is an effective vaccine, which we know is quite a ways off. The worse effect, though, will be the lack of demand caused by millions who are left in financial ruin triggered by the virus and related economic collapse. If demand takes years to recover, unemployment will remain high for years. It becomes a vicious cycle.

 

Large social issues such as tax rates and health care coverage are going to have to be tackled before this will get better. That is where the comparisons to the Great Depression really come through. Social security was born from the great depression. I think there's a good chance universal healthcare comes to the US as a result of the situation that is unfolding now.

 

A very bad recession or depression was coming. Economists have been sounding the alarm for a while now. Coronavirus was just the tipping point.

I think we are in for a nasty recession, but I think you are being a bit to apocalyptic. I don't see a 30's style great depression happening.

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, dudalb said:

What other measures are there?

 

Social distancing, mask wearing and hand washing, massive testing, partial lockdown (the at risk population being isolated), international travel ban/screening, i.e. a mix of what Japan has being doing really well (they didn't test), South Korea, Hong-Kong, Singapor.

Edited by Barnack
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, doublejack said:

It's not a culture war. It is very clear proof of what I've been saying here for the past few days. The conservative base in the US is a cult, much like a religion. They get told what to believe by Trump, Fox News and prominent conservative voices like Rush Limbaugh. Science and any facts that contradict the official position are rejected. The information they are given is highly curated, slanted and sometimes downright manufactured. Independent voices within the movement are viciously attacked and silenced, or tossed out. 

 

The official cult line is that coronavirus is nothing but a harmless flu and that businesses need to open ASAP. My uncle, who is a pharmacist (at a hospital of all places) and should know better, spouts this shit as well. They are brainwashed and do not have the ability to think for themselves.

 

So, we can chalk this up like climate change. It is real and one side clearly sees the issue, while the other side of the aisle refuses to see anything beyond their noses.

This comment is provable fact form start to finish. Unfortunately. Just look at the MAGA responses to Trump's tweets regarding the pandemic.

Edited by PDC1987
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.




×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.