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I meant to say "based on the current pace of spread", not deaths.

 

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Dr. Anthony Fauci said based on modeling of the current pace of the coronavirus' spread in the U.S., "between 100,000 and 200,000" people may die from COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/29/823517467/fauci-estimates-that-100-000-to-200-000-americans-could-die-from-the-coronavirus

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1 hour ago, Barnack said:

Fully agreed that a minority of this message board got quite over the top, but that just to remind people how vastly and rapidly perception can be.

 

Debating if it would be terrible if this will kill less in it's first 18 month than what the regular flu could have easily kill over the same period would have been surrealist 2 weeks ago, what changed since ?

The flu doesn't put most countries worldwide in various stages of lockdown. Three months ago, it would have seemed insane to suggest this would happen.

 

We will never know how many people an unchecked coronavirus would have killed without those extreme measures, it could have been 2% of the population in some countries due to the breakdown of their health care system.

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8 minutes ago, Maggie said:

 

 

 

Sunday low test volume effect is still going on in Italy, depressing the number of new test a lot, but still 17% on test turning out positive is on the best (lowest) days this month.

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2 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

The flu doesn't put most countries worldwide in various stages of lockdown. Three months ago, it would have seemed insane to suggest this would happen.

 

We will never know how many people an unchecked coronavirus would have killed without those extreme measures, it could have been 2% of the population in some countries due to the breakdown of their health care system.

WE are not talking about 3 months ago, but (hard to tell with how time works) last week or the week before, no ?

 

It is really early to say but yes that was my point, we are talking about something that could very easily make millions of death in the USA from what we know, people talking about only 300-800K death 2-3 weeks ago were seen has optimistic dreamer and now if the USA putting in place extraordinary measure achieve to get it down to 100K people, people will say they were a disaster ?

 

The USA are putting measure that will have sounded insane not so long ago, they are taking this extremely seriously for the most part.

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🔴 #Coronavirus, national update at 18

• Current cases: 75.528 (+1.648)
• Deceased: 11,591 (+812)
• Healed: 14,620 (+1,590)
• Hospitalized in Intensive Care: 3.981 (+75)

Total cases: 101,739 (+4,050, + 4.1%)

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Barnack said:

The USA are putting measure that will have sounded insane not so long ago, they are taking this extremely seriously for the most part.

It was after 7 weeks of inaction. Lack of testing and contact tracing (which would have killed many transmission chains from the onset), absence of personal hygiene and social distancing guidelines (which would have driven down the spread rate), and complete ignorance by the leaders of the federal government are what put us in this situation. The whole lockdown thing could have been avoided or delayed to much much later and for a shorter period of time if we started preparing earlier like they did in South Korea and other places.

Edited by Neucentro
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9 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

It is really early to say but yes that was my point, we are talking about something that could very easily make millions of death in the USA from what we know, people talking about only 300-800K death 2-3 weeks ago were seen has optimistic dreamer and now if the USA putting in place extraordinary measure achieve to get it down to 100K people, people will say they were a disaster ?

 

The USA are putting measure that will have sounded insane not so long ago, they are taking this extremely seriously for the most part.

Selectively picking the most pessimistic numbers by some "people" on Internet isn't the bar for success, plenty dismissed the threat entirely until two weeks ago.  The measures taken by the US have been taken awfully late; they did almost nothing for two months. There is already a whole series of articles detailing just how badly they messed up the response and the crisis hasn't even really started.

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Michigan not only has the second largest number of cases in the US bit has a higher death rate than most. Looks like I won’t be leaving my house anytime soon 

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2 hours ago, AndyK said:

If you get hospitalised in the US from COVID-19, will you get a bill at the end of it?


There are a lot of different providers and plans so (unfortunately) it’s a complicated question. But two large providers are stepping up, at least (there may be more I’m not aware of).

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Neucentro said:

It was after 7 weeks of inaction. Lack of testing and contact tracing (which would have killed many transmission chains from the onset), absence of personal hygiene and social distancing guidelines (which would have driven down the spread rate), and complete ignorance by the leaders of the federal government are what put us in this situation. The whole lockdown thing could have been avoided or delayed to much much later and for a shorter period of time if we started preparing earlier like they did in South Korea and other places.

 

10 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Selectively picking the most pessimistic numbers by some "people" on Internet isn't the bar for success, plenty dismissed the threat entirely until two weeks ago.  The measures taken by the US have been taken awfully late; they did almost nothing for two months. There is already a whole series of articles detailing just how badly they messed up the response and the crisis hasn't even really started.


Yup yup. Chris Murphy is a senator from Connecticut.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Neucentro said:

It was after 7 weeks of inaction. Lack of testing and contact tracing (which would have killed many transmission chains from the onset), absence of personal hygiene and social distancing guidelines (which would have driven down the spread rate), and complete ignorance by the leaders of the federal government are what put us in this situation. The whole lockdown thing could have been avoided or delayed to much much later and for a shorter period of time if we started preparing earlier like they did in South Korea and other places.

Yes and no, hole Society was different in South Korea.

 

Trying for a western government to do that when it was useful before 31 december 2019 or early January at the latest:

 

Trump tried in february and it was received with a lot of pushback and never really made correctly.

 

In early mid-february this was still going in New York, the ignorance of the threat was fully generalized in the USA (most of the social distancing-hygiene do not require leaders to do anything for it to happen if people want to apply them):

 

We had twitter campaign telling people to go out in restaurant until not so long ago, look at the date of this article for example:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michelinemaynard/2020/03/13/5-ways-to-help-your-favorite-restaurant-survive-the-coronavirus-crisis/#2bd95c165d08

 

This was March 13, people were still writing article saying to people to go out and eat, that it was an exaggerated sensational ramped up by the media affair.

 

South Korea, Taiwan and other place had SARS and others previous giant scare that prepared them a lot and had a measure already in place, a population ready to accept measure and government that didn't believe what China and the WHO was saying, that would have made it hard for most western country to have has good of a response before January 15 than them.

 

Look how late we still had article about mask wearing not being a good idea in some of the western country.

 

 

 

Edited by Barnack
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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Barnack said:

New positive case or delta in active positive case (death-recovered being removed from them ?)

No, just new positive cases. We are still far of dropping in active cases. I will start to give the active cases number since tomorrow.

Edited by peludo
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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Selectively picking the most pessimistic numbers by some "people" on Internet isn't the bar for success, plenty dismissed the threat entirely until two weeks ago.  The measures taken by the US have been taken awfully late; they did almost nothing for two months. There is already a whole series of articles detailing just how badly they messed up the response and the crisis hasn't even really started.

I am using Amesh Adalja numbers and they were not perceived pessimistics at all, the very opposite (he was one of the few big expert saying this was way more like the 1968 Hong Kong flu that the USA had many time, than something special).

 

Try to find older than 2 weeks pessimistics numbers predicting under 300K death in the first 18 months for COVID-19 in the United States ?

 

If this do only 100K death in the USA, it would be quite less by capita than the 1968 Hong Kong flu and that had a vaccine really quick (one month after the outbreak) and a immunity build in from the similar 1957 flu.

 

People that were saying this will just be like 1968, a little bit more, were not pessimistic at all 2 weeks ago, they were perceived like people downplaying it, now people are starting to call significantly better result in death by capita than 1968, a disaster. I could be wrong but I feel some 180 degree happened in perception.

Edited by Barnack

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5 minutes ago, peludo said:

No, just new positive cases. We are still far of dropping in active cases. I will start to give the active cases number since tomorrow.

I am not talking dropping in active cases.

 

Was the drop in how much more active case or in new case, for example.

 

Day 1: 12,000 Active case, 800 death, 1000 recovered

Day 2: 13,000 Active case, 1000 death, 1200 recovered

Day 3: 14,100 Active case, 1250 death, 1450 recovered

 

If people look at the delta in active case it will look like this

+1000, +1100

 

If people look in new case it will look like this

+600, +600 

 

Sometime the media use delta in active case and call it how many new case there was.

 

To make it shorter are you using what is called  positive cases to calculate new case ? And if so, if someone die do they stop to be put in that category to be shifted in the how many death you have or appear in both ?

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

People that were saying this will just be like 1968, a little bit more, were not pessimistic at all 2 weeks ago, they were perceived like people downplaying it, now people are starting to call significantly better result in death by capita than 1968, a disaster. I could be wrong but I feel some 180 degree happened in perception.

Who are these "people" you keep talking about? But you are right, there has been a shift in perception: the virus was supposed to go away "very quickly", "like a miracle"; the number of cases would go from "15 to 0".

 

 

And yes, a death toll 100x or 1000x higher than South Korea in a big, rich country would rightly be considered a disaster. Especially since South Korea was one of the first nations with an outbreak and gave everyone else a clear example of 1. how serious the threat was, and 2. what were some of the appropriate measures to take.

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Posted (edited)
On 3/30/2020 at 12:13 AM, a2k said:

India, new cases last 10 days:

110 - today

143

151

78

86

66

102

69

76

59

India, new cases last 10 days:

208 - today

110

143

151

78

86

66

102

69

76

 

Edit: am assuming/hoping that Sun was under-reported and Mon is redressing that.

Edited by a2k
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1 minute ago, MrGlass2 said:

Who are these "people" you keep talking about? But you are right, there has been a shift in perception: the virus was supposed to go away "very quickly", "like a miracle"; the number of cases would go from "15 to 0".

 

 

For example:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

If 30 to 70% of American get it, having 100K dying from this is a death rate of about 0.045% to 0.1%, less than the regular flu some season, how many people thought this was worst the the regular flu in death rate until very recently, I would say a lot.

 

I am not sure why you bring Trump complete non-sense here (I doubt many believed that).

 

5 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

And yes, a death toll 100x or 1000x higher than South Korea,

Do you think Covid will make only make 161 to 1600 victim in South Korea before a vaccin get massively popular ?

 

In South Korea, way more people die from seasonal flu yearly (https://www.jpmph.org/journal/view.php?number=2041), 14k-15K a year being standard, that is quite the bar to use.

 

 

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It’s simple.
 

Testing and contact tracing.

Testing and contact tracing.

Testing and contact tracing. 
 

Social isolation and shutdowns/lockdowns obviously work but you don’t know if you need to do them unless you know where the virus is located. 
 

NSW Health has been do this since January and releasing daily reports. 
 

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/pages/2020-nsw-health.aspx

 

This the first report on 25th January detailing the first confirmed cases and showing the virus has been in Sydney since mid-January at the latest. 
 

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200125_03.aspx

 

This is the most recent report up until 8pm 29 March. 
 

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200330_00.aspx

 

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Hopefully deaths start to plummet in Italy soon. Right now as number of cases go down and number of deaths stay level or go up we're just seeing a worse mortality rate there. It's over 11% now in Italy. Even if there's a lot of people untested and even if that starts to drop later that's a terrible number

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