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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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30 minutes ago, Killimano3 said:

Hopefully deaths start to plummet in Italy soon.

According to early study from what happened in China lockdown measure, 12 days or so before seeing new daily case rise stop, if we use March 10 in Italy for when lockdown got popular, that match march 22 being the first day of new case found going down.

 

For death I imagine it will be between 20 to 30 days to see an effect of the lockdown, if so should occur soon.

 

But we will need to start to look region by region I imagine, National Lock down only started around the 22-23, so it is possible that when death start to goes down 25 days after lock down was put in place, it will be hidden in total figure by where it will have started in the rest of the country (that could continue to rise 20-30 days after the national lockdown)

Edited by Barnack
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1 hour ago, John Marston said:

Michigan not only has the second largest number of cases in the US bit has a higher death rate than most. Looks like I won’t be leaving my house anytime soon 

Where are you seeing that? As of today, Johns Hopkins has Michigan at 4th in the nation behind NY, NJ, and CA.

 

Site_COVID19_USMap_0330_v01_DG_hpEmbed_1

 

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This a bit surreal for anybody who knows San Francisco...

 

https://sfist.com/2020/03/28/coyotes-are-taking-full-advantage-of-san-franciscos-empty-streets-while-the-city-shelters-in-place/

 

There have always been Coyotes in San Francisco, they live in the huge,heavily wooded  parks there;I have encountred a couple myself in the Coastal Trail  between Golden Gate Park and the Golden Gate Bridge;they usually stay there.

But for them to explore that far away from their homes is unusual.

I love the photo and caption for the coyote taking a nap in full view of the Golden Gate Bridge.

And the captions is right, Fisherman's Wharf is considered a huge tourist trap by San Franciscans;only time most go there is when they have  visiting releatives.

 

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1 hour ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

🔴 #Coronavirus, national update at 18

• Current cases: 75.528 (+1.648)
• Deceased: 11,591 (+812)
• Healed: 14,620 (+1,590)
• Hospitalized in Intensive Care: 3.981 (+75)

Total cases: 101,739 (+4,050, + 4.1%)

sad bcs the count, positive for the % 

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5 minutes ago, doublejack said:

I think there's a high risk of way more than 100k deaths going forward.

I feel this too, we still have very little idea, this could be in reality not much worse than the flu outside the fact that there is not build in immunity to slow the spread and that more people are getting it.

 

But people should stay mentally ready for a 300k-1.2M death in the next 18 month or at least see the 100K number as an optimistic scenario, if 100K people die from this, with how much less death we can expect from regular flu, car accident and so on from the reduced activity, there is chance that the global mortality rate in the USA will end up being lower than usual for a while, not even higher with a negative excess death caused by COVID.

 

For example, saturday (48 hours ago) this post:

 

 

By Easter we will be over 10,000 deaths per day

 

Nobody was quoting him saying it was nonsense.

 

2 days after people talking about 50-600 death a days (not sure how just 100K plays out) has a disaster, this how fast things are moving.

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10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Its interesting to note anyone can order a test in India(that is around $60).

Sadly, the FDA has had to warn people in the US about a number of scam tests that are being peddled by the Snake Oil Salesmen.

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8 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Sadly, the FDA has had to warn people in the US about a number of scam tests that are being peddled by the Snake Oil Salesmen.

This seem to be approved by Medical body in India. I googled and its on all major news sites. 

 

Quote

Practo on Saturday announced that COVID-19 tests are now available on its platform. In a statement, Bengaluru-based Practo said the company has partnered with Thyrocare to conduct the detection tests, which has been authorised by the government of India and the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR).

https://gadgets.ndtv.com/apps/news/coronavirus-covid-19-test-online-book-practo-2203156

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1 hour ago, Barnack said:

I am not talking dropping in active cases.

 

Was the drop in how much more active case or in new case, for example.

 

Day 1: 12,000 Active case, 800 death, 1000 recovered

Day 2: 13,000 Active case, 1000 death, 1200 recovered

Day 3: 14,100 Active case, 1250 death, 1450 recovered

 

If people look at the delta in active case it will look like this

+1000, +1100

 

If people look in new case it will look like this

+600, +600 

 

Sometime the media use delta in active case and call it how many new case there was.

 

To make it shorter are you using what is called  positive cases to calculate new case ? And if so, if someone die do they stop to be put in that category to be shifted in the how many death you have or appear in both ?

 

 

If I have understood right what you mean, I am not doing what you are saying:

 

When I say "Positive cases" they are every case diagnosed since the beginning of the crisis, taking into account both deaths and healed.

 

Tomorrow I will start giving data about active cases being: active = positive - deaths - healed

 

For example:

Sunday: 78,797 positive - 6,528 deaths - 14,709 recovered = 57,560 active cases

Monday: 85,195 positive - 7,340 deaths - 16,780 recovered = 61,075 active cases

 

So we have 3,515 new active cases during Sun to Mon period. Is this what you mean with delta?

 

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1 hour ago, John Marston said:

Michigan not only has the second largest number of cases in the US bit has a higher death rate than most. Looks like I won’t be leaving my house anytime soon 

We don't have bad numbers...but just got a "stay in" til JUNE 10...

 

This is gonna be a looooong spring...and there went the Memorial Day pool opening weekend...which is gonna bum by kids out...

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France:

 

More than 3000 dead in France

.... Within 24 hours 418 additional dead got registered

More than 5000 people are in the ICU....

Actual are nearly 21000 patients in the hospitals

Around one-third 1/3 (one out of three) of the heavy cases are younger than 60 years

Total for France is 44550 registered (confirmed?) infections

(be aware, the dead in care centers are not included, if I do not mix France and Spain up.)

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40 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

We don't have bad numbers...but just got a "stay in" til JUNE 10...

 

This is gonna be a looooong spring...and there went the Memorial Day pool opening weekend...which is gonna bum by kids out...

That's so you might not  have bad numbers.......

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Dear police in Munich (= Germany, capital of the state ‚Bayern‘ / Bavaria), as ~ it looks like the curfew/confinement is up till after Eastern I have to refer an urgent question of my son to you (I am seemingly here not trustworthy enough).

Is the Easter Bunny subjected to the curfew?

 

roughly translated

 

 

answer of the (real) police, again roughly translated:

The Easter Bunny is clever and combines the hiding of the Easter Eggs with ~ taking a walk at the fresh air. That is still allowed. He naturally also looks out for the minimum distance of 1.5m (I think that is roughly 5 feet) and washes his paws (rabbit foot?) before and after.

 

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China is ground zero, and I don't think we're getting enough accurate information right now. You may send us drugs, tools, and people to fight this. But hard data from your own country is paramount right now. I don't feel like that is happening. Please, cancel your country's pride, and allow those who fight for truth and the safety of the world to speak without fear.

Edited by ThePhasmid
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I have to wonder what the differences might be between countries with the counting of those who died “of” COVID-19 and those who died “with” COVID-19 but the primary cause off death was an underlying condition. 

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