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"good" news from Tyrol

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In Tirol ist die Anzahl der aktuell Infizierten erstmals rückläufig. Während am Montagvormittag noch 1984 Personen als infiziert galten, waren es 24 Stunden später am Dienstagvormittag nur mehr 1914, wie aus den Zahlen hervorgeht, die das Land veröffentlichte.

▶️ Der Grund dafür dürfte darin liegen, dass die Zahl jener, die pro Tag genesen, mittlerweile die Anzahl an Neuinfektionen übersteigt. Am Montag galten 270 Personen in Tirol als genesen und 1.984 als derzeit erkrankt - die Gesamtzahl der bisherigen Fälle lag also bei 2.267 (inklusive der bis dahin gemeldeten 13 Todesfälle).

for the first time, we have now less active cases than the day before, because more victims were recovered than newly infected. Of course, that's without the hidden infections / dark figures, so in fact, we probably still had a slight increase, but good sign anyway. Here in Tyrol, being a hotspot for the disease, we have a very strict lockdown in place since 16th (schools, universities even earlier).

 

It remains to be seen how the overall strain on the health system develops; victims often get critical only one or two weeks after infection, so hospitalisation and ICU use will probably continue rising for at least two weeks. As of now, Austria has about 200 victims in ICU with about 300-400 beds still free.

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19 minutes ago, Noctis said:

He literally used the coronavirus as a way to grant himself sweeping powers and near-total control regarding all decisions in the country until the emergency situation is lifted. If you think this is not encroaching upon democracy and liberty, then you're in dire need of reassessing politics in the real world. He's reminding me a lot of Erdogan - the man who was democratically elected but eventually descended into dictatorship - who used real life crises to seize more control.

He already had near-total control passing new laws due to his party's dominance in the Parlament. At least until a new election changes the balance of power. This just makes the decision making faster during the crisis.

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In the reactions are some fun posts.

Including: Seoul is 38m (outside the US that means usually Meter as in something over 3 feet) over NN (normal Null = the ocean/sea water ‚skin‘, no idea what the term in English might be)

Like too fast glance into wiki before he said that?

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46 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Son just told me they just got out of a meeting with Environmental health.

 

They have been told to plan for the lockdown to continue until September.

 

There won't be an economy left to go back to in september.

 

If it's true, it means they have abandoned "flatten the curve" and they are going for eradication.

 

Update: expect an address to the nation tonight (this is UK but I cant see how they can do this without co-ordination with other nations).

 

This one not from an official source, so may be wrong.

Edited by AndyK
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In this whole herd-immunity discussion: What is about possible long term consequences for health?

 

I heard about the possibility of lung fibrosis and reduced lung volume even among "mild" cases (not clear yet wether permanent or not). Or I've read about the virus attacking the testicles and therefore maybe leading to infertility.

(I don't know where I've read both of this and my questions are more about the fundamental lack of talk about possible consequences)

 

So does anyone know about such consequences and why the aren't addressed? And how much of a threat the are?

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31 minutes ago, Aristis said:

In this whole herd-immunity discussion: What is about possible long term consequences for health?

 

I heard about the possibility of lung fibrosis and reduced lung volume even among "mild" cases (not clear yet wether permanent or not). Or I've read about the virus attacking the testicles and therefore maybe leading to infertility.

(I don't know where I've read both of this and my questions are more about the fundamental lack of talk about possible consequences)

 

So does anyone know about such consequences and why the aren't addressed? And how much of a threat the are?

Most people will recover with no lasting effects (80%) is what i read. Most respiratory diseases in which hospital assistance is required tend to cause lasting damage to our lungs. Its not like Coronavirus is unique to that

Edited by MadJosh
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33 minutes ago, MadJosh said:

Most people will recover with no lasting effects (80%) is what i read. Most respiratory diseases in which hospital assistance is required tend to cause lasting damage to our lungs. Its not like Coronavirus is unique to that

But most respiratory diseases don't have such a broad spread, right? So trying to reach herd immunity would cause many of those cases.

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2 hours ago, terrestrial said:

 

 

 

In the reactions are some fun posts.

Including: Seoul is 38m (outside the US that means usually Meter as in something over 3 feet) over NN (normal Null = the ocean/sea water ‚skin‘, no idea what the term in English might be)

Like too fast glance into wiki before he said that?

Though not 38 million, the metro area of Seoul has like 28 million people.

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1 hour ago, Aristis said:

But most respiratory diseases don't have such a broad spread, right? So trying to reach herd immunity would cause many of those cases.

Herd immunity through vaccine avoids most hospitalisations, so the answer is no.

 

Herd immunity is somehow been touted as a bad thing, it is the endgame of all strategies except eradication.

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21 minutes ago, krla said:

Though not 38 million, the metro area of Seoul has like 28 million people.

No question about that, but he said ~ no ones Seoul better than him, and seemingly used the 38m sea water level (???) out of Wikipedia, that is, what makes it so funny. To me at least.

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1 hour ago, Damianport1 said:

In Poland now you can't leave home even with person you sleep in one bed. Only alone and only if you really need it. And keep 2 meters of space in public.

that sounds more like a measure to help police to find faster people who break the law (less checks on the streets needed) than like a logical rule

Strange times we are living in...

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4 hours ago, AndyK said:

Son just told me they just got out of a meeting with Environmental health.

 

They have been told to plan for the lockdown to continue until September.

 

There won't be an economy left to go back to in september.

 

If it's true, it means they have abandoned "flatten the curve" and they are going for eradication.

 

I don't know about that last bit. I've maintained since I started posting in this thread that flattening the curve would require a longer shutdown than many were thinking. The concept of flatting the curve is instead of a huge chunk of the population getting sick over the course of a month or two, those people get sick spread out over many months. For this to work, it is not inconceivable that shutting things down until September is required.

 

Eradication will not be possible without a vaccine being widely available. That's a year off, minimum, and probably more.

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Those details about the R0, 25% asymptomatic, and contagious 48 hours before symptoms show really makes me think there's a notable undercount in loads of places, even with testing getting ramped up.

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7 minutes ago, doublejack said:

I don't know about that last bit. I've maintained since I started posting in this thread that flattening the curve would require a longer shutdown than many were thinking. The concept of flatting the curve is instead of a huge chunk of the population getting sick over the course of a month or two, those people get sick spread out over many months. For this to work, it is not inconceivable that shutting things down until September is required.

 

Eradication will not be possible without a vaccine being widely available. That's a year off, minimum, and probably more.

If no one touches anyone for 3 weeks, its can be eradicated.

 

Would take a herculean effort of planning and execution but it could be done.

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