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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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25 minutes ago, AndyK said:

I don't know how this virus compares to previous ones when they first appeared on the scene, but...thinking about how common viruses that exist in the modern world are so lethal to isolated tribes that have never been exposed to them....

 

IF ... there is no workable vaccine, then I guess, as it's not harmful to children, it will just eventually join the other viruses that cause the common cold or Flu.

 

Getting exposed to it young and throughout their lives may render it relatively potent-less when they are old.

 

Just a guess, hope its so.

Its not clear if it is harmful for children or not yet. At least the bad cases seem to damage the lungs of some patients, its seems way too early to assume anything? Especially with small children I can imagine there might be bad surprises in the future, not in the way to ‚panic‘, only in the way I hope they start to look into that when the time comes, wont miss chances in the long run.

I am more of the lets collect tons of data first kind of gal, as a lung scan of that kind is not easily done and expensive, I guess only time will tell (or when they will have the time / resources for broader studies), or?

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"Good news" from Italy.

Quote

According to the National Higher Health Institute, Italy’s coronavirus curve has reached its plateau but lockdown measures are still needed to defeat it. ISS President Silvio Brusaferro said:

 

The curve tells us that we’re at the plateau. That doesn’t mean we’ve hit the peak and that it is over but that we must start the descent and you start the descent by applying the measures in force.

 

 

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1 hour ago, lilmac said:

‪I truly believe that after this pandemic we will go back to normal and fairly quickly. I don’t see major and long lasting changes in behavior after this. We have short memories and are resilient. ‬

Won't be that easy (economy) and I can definitely see some long-term changes too. (Look at how AIDS changes sexual behaviour for a whole generation). Also, maybe some more recognition for WHO, CDC and so on ... they got ridiculed pretty often when they were warning about some new flu which then fizzled (thankfully) out.

And don't underestimate the homeworking trend ... there were a LOT of offices in Asutria where it was "not possible", not even for one day a week (would have been nice for weekly commuters) and now, bang! - suddenly it's not only possible but compulsive AND it's working.

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1 hour ago, bladels said:

As a healthcare worker, I can't read any news related to Trump anymore, they make my blood boil. 

How dare he suggest nurses and doctors stealing medical supplies? MY GOD

 🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬

That's what happens when you read just the headlines without reading the whole article. Here is the article by Vox:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/30/21199538/coronavirus-mask-trump-new-york-hospital-stealing

If you look inside the article they have the exact quote from Trump. Here it is:

" Something is going on, and you ought to look into it as reporters. Where are the masks going? Are they going out the back door? How do you go from 10,000 to 300,000? And we have that in a lot of different places. So, somebody should probably look into that, because I just don’t see, from a practical standpoint, how that’s possible to go from that to that. And we have that happening in numerous places — not to that extent; that was the highest number I’ve heard."

 

He never mentioned nurses, that was completely made up by the media.

 

Edited by Marcus Cato
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On 3/30/2020 at 10:52 PM, a2k said:

India, new cases last 10 days:

208 - today

110

143

151

78

86

66

102

69

76

 

Edit: am assuming/hoping that Sun was under-reported and Mon is redressing that.

India, new cases last 10 days:

288 - today

208

110

143

151

78

86

66

102

69

Edited by a2k
'today' updated from 272 to 328
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2 hours ago, 4815162342 said:

Those details about the R0, 25% asymptomatic, and contagious 48 hours before symptoms show really makes me think there's a notable undercount in loads of places, even with testing getting ramped up.

Note that in China, asymptotic people who did test positive during mass tests at the peak of the pandemic are not included in the total. There is no reason to exclude them so the Chinese number should be something like +40K higher.

 

In many countries, asymptotic cases will never be tested. The number of "cases" is underestimated everywhere by an order of magnitude.

Edited by MrGlass2
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6 minutes ago, Marcus Cato said:

That's what happens when you read just the headlines without reading the whole article. Here is the article by Vox:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/30/21199538/coronavirus-mask-trump-new-york-hospital-stealing

If you look inside the article they have the exact quote from Trump. Here it is:

" Something is going on, and you ought to look into it as reporters. Where are the masks going? Are they going out the back door? How do you go from 10,000 to 300,000? And we have that in a lot of different places. So, somebody should probably look into that, because I just don’t see, from a practical standpoint, how that’s possible to go from that to that. And we have that happening in numerous places — not to that extent; that was the highest number I’ve heard."

 

He never mentioned nurses, that is completely made up by the media.

 

the journalists can do it, he has to do it, its literally his job....

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17 minutes ago, Marcus Cato said:

That's what happens when you read just the headlines without reading the whole article. Here is the article by Vox:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/30/21199538/coronavirus-mask-trump-new-york-hospital-stealing

If you look inside the article they have the exact quote from Trump. Here it is:

" Something is going on, and you ought to look into it as reporters. Where are the masks going? Are they going out the back door? How do you go from 10,000 to 300,000? And we have that in a lot of different places. So, somebody should probably look into that, because I just don’t see, from a practical standpoint, how that’s possible to go from that to that. And we have that happening in numerous places — not to that extent; that was the highest number I’ve heard."

 

He never mentioned nurses, that was completely made up by the media.

 

Distinction without a difference. Trump accused health care workers of stealing masks.\

Getting tired of your "I am not a Trump supporter but I  constanly defend him " routine.

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ANybody who thinks this is not going to result in changes in our society is living in fantasy land.

Problem with conservatives is they hate change and want to live in a world were nothing ever changes. Not going to happen.

 

Edited by dudalb
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Some good news:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/us/florida-pastor-arrested-river-church/index.html

 

I am sick and tired of "religious leaders" thinking they are above the law. Hope they throw the book at this moron.

If you want to believe in a two thousand year old book of fairy tales, that is your business. If you spread a deadly disease, that makes it everyone's business.

Edited by dudalb
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22 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Looks like cases escalated in a big way overnight. Might hit a million by Thursday.

I'm looking for a sizable bump in the number of cases and fatalities in the US today. Based on the trend, it stabilizes for 2-3 days and then jumps up. It didn't really move much yesterday, so today is the growth day. We're at 290 deaths in the US already so it looks like it is happening. Hopefully I'm wrong and we start to see a plateau. I think that's unlikely, but I can wish.

 

14 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Won't be that easy (economy) and I can definitely see some long-term changes too. (Look at how AIDS changes sexual behaviour for a whole generation). Also, maybe some more recognition for WHO, CDC and so on ... they got ridiculed pretty often when they were warning about some new flu which then fizzled (thankfully) out.

And don't underestimate the homeworking trend ... there were a LOT of offices in Asutria where it was "not possible", not even for one day a week (would have been nice for weekly commuters) and now, bang! - suddenly it's not only possible but compulsive AND it's working.

 

That's potentially the biggest societal difference I see coming out of this.

 

I have worked from home for 4 years now. When I took the job about 6 years ago, I worked in the office full time. I gradually transitioned over my first two years to working from home. I've seen the same trend play out with my coworkers. Many work from home either most of the time or all of the time. The last time I went into one of our offices, which I had to travel out of state to do, actual in-office workers only made up about a third of my coworkers. The rest there had cubes with equipment and a name tag, but it was obvious they barely came in, if they ever did. Now we're literally all working from home due to the virus.

 

What I think COVID is going to do is accelerate a trend that was already set in motion. It would take a lot for me to accept a job where I could not work from home, and even if I did I'd keep looking until I did find a work from home situation. I'm done wasting my life commuting. Not everyone is going to take that extreme of a position on it, but I see far more use of working from home going forward. For many different jobs there is simply no reason to travel to an office. It also saves employers money if they don't have to pay for office space, desk phones, monitors, etc. Working from home is a win-win.

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Possibly against my better judgment, but there's something in this thread I feel compelled to address more thoroughly than I have in the past. I'm not replying to any particular comment because it's come up multiple times, and I don't see any reason to single out any one person.

There are limitations with the data from China, yes. The Chinese government acknowledges these limitations - for example, by stating which of the "confirmed cases" were confirmed by clinical diagnosis, owing to lack of available tests. (This seems like a strange thing to admit if you're manufacturing the data anyway, or trying to otherwise trying to cover up the true extent of the outbreak.)

And yes, China covering up the outbreak at the beginning cost both China and the rest of the world valuable time. Their suppression of citizens criticizing the government response is both wrong, and counter-productive in the long run. It's exactly what made local officials who were supposed to report the outbreak to the central government try to cover it up instead.

However, the size of the outbreak in China was almost certainly not larger than about three times the size of the reported data, based on epidemiological modelling. The fear that the outbreak was actually ten times larger than reported etc., is simply not supported even by the worst-case scenarios in models that are using other data.

I regrettably don't have the time to break down the analysis in every single academic paper that has been published with such a model, but the following is a good example:

 

Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China

 

The model starts by relying on calculations from previous research (Imperial College London) that estimated the true number of cases of COVID-19 based on the prevalence found in travellers leaving Wuhan for other countries. (Yes, papers published on that subject take into account that many cases would be missed. Ultimately, though, routine surveillance for influenza-like illness in a number of countries would be all but guaranteed to detect a severe case.)

These estimates, completely independent of any data from the Chinese government, indicated that ~1,700 cases were present by January 12th, and ~4,000 cases were present by January 18th. This ultimately allows for an estimation of 40 initial zoonotic cases by early December, and an R0 of 2.1-3.5, with R0 ~2.6 as the best estimate. (Other parameters that start with more zoonotic cases in early December have a lower R0, so somewhat paradoxically actually result in fewer cases in the long run.)

 

To get an upper range (but still realistic) estimate of the total number of cases, they use the lower estimate of initial zoonotic cases, and a higher estimate of R0 = 3.1 (3.6 would not be realistic), through to January 23. The assume a reduction in transmission after travel restrictions were put in place on January 23, so that Rt = 2.6 (about a 16% reduction, if anything, erring on the side of caution). Following the isolation measures put in place in Wuhan (one person per household leaving every three days), they assume Rt = 1.9. Finally, after February 16, which would give time for people to have transmitted the infection to members of their own households, they model continued transmission with Rt = 0.9 and Rt = 0.5.

Figure 3 shows the estimates that result in a worst-case scenario for the total number of active infections. Note that it predicts a peak only a little more than twice the number of confirmed cases in Wuhan, occuring only a few days after the time they had data for (up until February 16 - date of final revision of the paper was February 17). This is what actually ended up happening, showing that at least until Febuary 16, the model's parameters were well-chosen.
 

41421_2020_148_Fig3_HTML.png

 

The trajectory after that time predicts a decline that is slower than what has actually occurred based on the reported data from China. But that's not unreasonable. Note that the the lower limit of Rt = 0.5 represents an 84% reduction in transmission, and it could easily be even a greater reduction than that given how strongly enforced the measures were on movement in Wuhan. (That's something even critics of China's response seem to agree on.)

TL;DR: There almost certainly isn't a huge outbreak of COVID-19 in China that the government is successfully covering up, based on analysis and modelling that is independent of data provided from the government of China.

Edited by Jason
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7 minutes ago, dudalb said:

I see some people here are still looking for  some quick and easy end to this. There isn't one. Better to face and deal with realities rather then ignore them.

China managed to end it. It won't be as "easy" in the western world, but your apocalyptic predictions are scary

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2 minutes ago, Jason said:

TL;DR: There almost certainly isn't a huge outbreak of COVID-19 in China that the government is successfully covering up, based on analysis and modelling that is independent of data provided from the government of China.

Thank you, tired of made-up numbers on Twitter for China x100 or x1000 higher (even for the number of deaths) taken at face value by some here. There were more infected people in China than the "confirmed cases" in the data, but that is true for every single country.

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@Jason how do you think we’re doing so far in Canada (and Ontario more specifically?)?
 

I’ve been following a lot more doctors on twitter as I try and keep up and most say things seem ok-good for now but we need to do more testing(obviously), which we should see soon as the government just made that agreement with that company to do the quicker turn around tests. 

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