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On 3/31/2020 at 11:55 AM, peludo said:

Spain - Tuesday

94,417 positive cases (+9,222 relative to Monday) +10.82%

8,189 deaths (+849) +11.57%

19,259 healed (+2,479) +14.77%

 

These new positive cases data, being not good relative to yesterday, could be explained with lack of updates during weekend. Last Tuesday happened something similar:

 

Positive cases

Sunday, March 22nd: +3,646

Monday, March 23rd: +4,517

Tueday, March 24th: +6,584 (+44% relative to Monday)

...

Sunday, March 29th: +6,549

Monday, March 30th: +6,398

Tuesday: March 31th: +9,222 (+45% relative to Monday)

 

Since today I am including data about active cases (total positive cases - deaths - healed). The evolution of this data during last 10 days to keep perspective has been as follows:

 

Sun 22nd: 24,272 (+2,797) +13.02%

Mon 23rd: 27,552 (+3,280) +13.51%

Tue 24th: 33,183 (+5,631) +20.44%

Wed 25th: 38,809 (+5,626) +16.95%

Thu 26th: 45,084 (+6,275) +16.17%

Fri 27th: 49,844 (+4,760) +10.56%

Sat 28th: 54,273 (+4,429) +8.89%

Sun 29th: 57,560 (+3,287) +6.06%

Mon 30th: 61,075 (+3,515) +6.11%

Tue 31st: 66,969 (+5,894) +9.65%

 

There was a very similar jump in absolute numbers last Tuesday from Monday.

 

Spain - Wednesday

102,136 positive cases (+7,719 relative to Tuesday) +8.18%

9,053 deaths (+864) +10.55%

22,647 healed (+3,388) +17.59%

70,436 active cases (+3,467) +5.18%

 

It is confirmed that yesterday's rise was given by late weekend numbers. We are back to 8% increase in positive cases, in the same way we had on Monday.

 

I guess that deaths daily number will still be in this level (800s) during some more days until, I hope, it starts to fall.

 

Best healed absolute daily data. More than 3,000 for the first time.

 

Active cases continue increasing but with a 5% increase. 7 days ago we were increasing a 16% daily.

 

I heard today that some ER units are not so saturated as they had been some days ago. The stabilization continues.

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Eh, i still think is too early for Spain to stabilize. They responded really late, way to late to peak two weeks after lockdown. It's going to take them more time.

 

Better numbers likely have more to do with less testing

Edited by Damianport1
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The situation in Spain in getting really bad, it will pass Italy soon in total number of cases. But the spanish authorities have only themselves to blame for that. Look what happened on march 8, The International Women's Day, when Spain had already over 600 confirmed cases:

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-08/thousands-march-in-spain-on-womens-day-despite-coronavirus-fears

Thousands marched in Spain on Women's Day despite coronavirus fears. One protester held a sign that read: "Machismo kills more than coronavirus." 

The Spanish Government is totally responsible for allowing that big infection party to take place. They literally have blood in their hands. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Marcus Cato said:

The situation in Spain in getting really bad, it will pass Italy soon in total number of cases. But the spanish authorities have only themselves to blame for that. Look what happened on march 8, The International Women's Day, when Spain had already over 600 confirmed cases:

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-08/thousands-march-in-spain-on-womens-day-despite-coronavirus-fears

Thousands marched in Spain on Women's Day despite coronavirus fears. One protester held a sign that read: "Machismo kills more than coronavirus." 

The Spanish Government is totally responsible for allowing that big infection party to take place. They literally have blood in their hands. 

 

 

The government had the choice of affecting all feminists in one day or halting the virus spread, it was tough but i think they made the right choice

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21 minutes ago, MadJosh said:

The government had the choice of affecting all feminists in one day or halting the virus spread, it was tough but i think they made the right choice

Why was that demonstration more damaging than millions of people commuting to work in subways, trains and buses every day the week before and the week after March 8? I don't understand the focus on that particular gathering, is it because it was a women's rights march?

 

In any case, the central government didn't have the authority to ban the marches at that point. Until the state of emergency was declared on March 14, it would have been the city hall or the regional government the ones in charge of that (and both are conservative governments with support from the far-right.)

 

Anyway, sorry my first post on the forum had to be about this. I love the forum since the times of BOM and it's sad we are now tracking these kinds of numbers instead of the box office.

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2 hours ago, Marcus Cato said:

The situation in Spain in getting really bad, it will pass Italy soon in total number of cases. But the spanish authorities have only themselves to blame for that. Look what happened on march 8, The International Women's Day, when Spain had already over 600 confirmed cases:

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-08/thousands-march-in-spain-on-womens-day-despite-coronavirus-fears

Thousands marched in Spain on Women's Day despite coronavirus fears. One protester held a sign that read: "Machismo kills more than coronavirus." 

The Spanish Government is totally responsible for allowing that big infection party to take place. They literally have blood in their hands. 

 

 

The curve comparison has been saying many days ago that Spain will be over Italy, not just now.

 

That day were celebrated many other events, beyond the Women's Day. That day there were football league matches, with several matches with 30k or 40k people, and one of them with 65k people, beyond that day every theater, cinema, pubs or malls were opened. Even, the extreme right party VOX celebrated an assembly on March 7th with 9,000 people, with one of their main members with evident covid's sympthoms greeeting everyone. He was diagnosed several days later.

 

It is obvious that it was a mistake to have not closed the country several days before (Italy did it 5 days before us), but to blame exclusively to that manifestation is not correct and a politically oriented critic since Spanish right parties detest the feminism movements. The reality says that experts and data agree that the spread was out of control already in last week of February. Some Italian authorities said that the Champions League match between Atalanta and Valencia, played in Bergamo on February 19th with 45,000 people (2,500 of them from Spain), was literally, "a biological bomb".

 

Spanish Government was late. That is undeniable. But to close the country is not an easy decision as we are seeing in many other democracies.

Edited by peludo
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2 hours ago, Damianport1 said:

Eh, i still think is too early for Spain to stabilize. They responded really late, way to late to peak two weeks after lockdown. It's going to take them more time.

 

Better numbers likely have more to do with less testing

I am saying stabilize, not peaking. Stabilize in order the health system can be able to manage all active cases, which is the main problem of this crisis in any place. We will still have a higher number of active cases, but some zones are already starting to decongest ERs units.

 

And I do not see how a better number of healed people is related to testing number.

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16 minutes ago, Munashii said:

Why was that demonstration more damaging than millions of people commuting to work in subways, trains and buses every day the week before and the week after March 8? I don't understand the focus on that particular gathering, is it because it was a women's rights march?

 

In any case, the central government didn't have the authority to ban the marches at that point. Until the state of emergency was declared on March 14, it would have been the city hall or the regional government the ones in charge of that (and both are conservative governments with support from the far-right.)

 

Anyway, sorry my first post on the forum had to be about this. I love the forum since the times of BOM and it's sad we are now tracking these kinds of numbers instead of the box office.

I was only messing around. Just trying to add humour to some doom and gloom, its needed.

 

People in Italy and Spain tend to greet more with a kiss, i wouldn't be surprised if this small part of their culture had more to do with their outbreak than a simple womans day march

Edited by MadJosh
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19 minutes ago, Munashii said:

Why was that demonstration more damaging than millions of people commuting to work in subways, trains and buses every day the week before and the week after March 8? I don't understand the focus on that particular gathering, is it because it was a women's rights march?

 

In any case, the central government didn't have the authority to ban the marches at that point. Until the state of emergency was declared on March 14, it would have been the city hall or the regional government the ones in charge of that (and both are conservative governments with support from the far-right.)

 

Anyway, sorry my first post on the forum had to be about this. I love the forum since the times of BOM and it's sad we are now tracking these kinds of numbers instead of the box office.

That is the key. Beyond that it should have not been allowed ANY EVENT many days before March 8th, it is a political controversy.

 

Just a data: it is estimated that 2 million people used the subway in Madrid region on March 9th, 17 times more than the estimated people who were in the manifestation.

 

The mistake was to have not closed the country before March 14th, not just the manifestation.

 

Welcome to the forums :)

Edited by peludo
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4 minutes ago, MadJosh said:

I was only messing around. Just trying to add humour to some doom and gloom, its needed.

 

People in Italy and Spain tend to greet more with a kiss, i wouldn't be surprised if this small part of their culture had more to do with their outbreak than a simple womans day march

Pretty agree

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This is a really good article to read. It is Dr. Fauci describing his relationship with 5 different US Presidents. It has the link to the actual podcast with Dr. Fauci. The podcast is 27 min. The portion talking about US Presidents starts at min 8. FWIW, i'd highly recommend listening to the whole 27 min if you have time.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/politics/fauci-very-different-relationships-presidents/index.html

FWIW, he highly recommends going outside if you can do so without being within 6 feet of other people. 

 

The veteran doctor spoke in glowing terms about his relationships with earlier presidents. He highlighted his close relationship with President George H.W. Bush, noting that "just by accident I developed a really close friendship with him because he came to the (National Institute of Health) in the late 80s when he was vice president and was thinking of running for president, and he sincerely wanted to learn about HIV."
"He was a very modest, unbelievable human being. And he came in, he says, 'I want to learn,'" Fauci said, adding that he introduced Bush to patients at NIH and "gave him a bit of a tutorial on HIV."
"And all of a sudden he decided he was going to be my friend, thank goodness, and he invited me to the White House ... we had a very warm, personal type relationship," Fauci added.
His relationship with President Bill Clinton "was different," Fauci said.
"Clinton had all the right vibes about what to do. I had a good relationship with him, but it was quite formal, as you would have with respect to the presidency," he said.
Fauci said that he got to know President George W. Bush amid the crises of 9/11 and the 2001 anthrax attacks before he "had the privilege of being close to him and developing PEPFAR," or the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.
Fauci considers Bush's PEPFAR -- an unprecedented, $3 billion-a-year program to help the world fight AIDS -- "one of the most important things any American president has ever done," he said, noting that "it saved millions of lives."
President Barack Obama was "a very easy person to get along with and a really good, good human being," Fauci said, highlighting the "marathon" of outbreaks at the time, including Ebola and Zika.
    "He didn't joke about it because he was serious, but I remember once he walked into the into the Situation Room and we were sitting around and he just put his hand on his head," Fauci said.
    "He said, 'I got children at the border, I got wars going on, and I'm spending all my time with these diseases. Would you guys please do something about this?' It was it was sort of like almost tongue in cheek, but it was serious," Fauci recalled.

     

     

    Article by an American living in China teaching AP Psychology and English. Talking about after the quarantine doesn't mean things go back to 'normal'.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/opinions/china-coronavirus-end-quarantine-devika-koppikar-opinion/index.html

     

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    24 minutes ago, MadJosh said:

    I was only messing around. Just trying to add humour to some doom and gloom, its needed.

     

    People in Italy and Spain tend to greet more with a kiss, i wouldn't be surprised if this small part of their culture had more to do with their outbreak than a simple womans day march

    Well, I'm sorry. I actually wanted to reply to the previous post, not yours. Don't know if I can edit it know.

    Anyway, about the kissing as a greeting, it seems it doesn't play a big role compared to hand shakes. But I think culture plays a role in other ways, like grandparents living with the rest of the family more often and stuff like that.

     

    21 minutes ago, peludo said:

    That is the key. Beyond that it should have not been allowed ANY EVENT many days before March 8th, it is a political controversy.

     

    Just a data: it is estimated that 2 million people used the subway in Madrid region on March 9th, 17 times more than the estimated people who were in the manifestation.

     

    The mistake was to have not closed the country before March 14th, not just the manifestation.

     

    Welcome to the forums :)

     

    Thanks! I actually used to post a little during the BOM times, but this is the first time after the move to BOT (I still read it almost daily for some weird reason.)

     

    About closing the country earlier, we actually did it with less official deaths from Covid-19 than Italy had in March 9, but very likely because of lack of testing at that point.

    Edited by Munashii
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    24 minutes ago, martin said:

    cant believe BOT turn from counting box office number to covid19 death number........:tvscared:

    Kind morbid... But also expected. The two things that unite everyone on this forum is our love of movies and our love of statistics. Kinda expected we'd inevitably turn to track covid19 cases and deaths. Kinda funny tho in a dark way

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