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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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3 hours ago, MadJosh said:

The government had the choice of affecting all feminists in one day or halting the virus spread, it was tough but i think they made the right choice

 

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COVID-19 Projections from IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) for the United States.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

Their current projection (which I assume will change based on actual data every day) for Total COVID-19 deaths projected to August 4, 2020 is 93,765.

 

It also projects the needed hospital resources (all beds and ICU beds) and when there will be a shortage of beds.

Edited by stephanos13
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9 minutes ago, stephanos13 said:

COVID-19 Projections from IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) for the United States.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

Their current projection (which I assume will change based on actual data every day) for Total COVID-19 deaths projected to August 4, 2020 is 93,765.

 

It also projects the needed hospital resources (all beds and ICU beds) and when there will be a shortage of beds.

They're also expecting 0 deaths from July 16th onwards. 

Edited by lorddemaxus
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About not counted cases, they evacuated a care home today, where the boss and several,of the caregivers got tested positive. 41 elderlies are now in the hospital, 31 of those already tested positive.

 

In another care home (another city, same state) 2 died who got tested positive, but 7 others too died there without have gotten tested. As they died rather time near, they think those too were infected. They are looking into it.

 

 

On a private not, one of my ~ colleagues, who’s main profession is being a medical doctor, got drafted for an open air tent ️ praxis (practice?), that will only test the ones with obvious flu or corona symptoms so other doctor‘s praxises (practices?) of the county and the hospital get a much needed relief. Not sure where the team will sleep the next few weeks.... (pre-teen kids at home). Usually I‘d offer to do something with them instead, but that is now not possible. It feels not good to not be ~ allowed to help.

 

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38 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Damn, Italy new cases back to 4.8k after two days of 4k. Clearly exponential growth has been curbed, but still a long road back.

Still the very "low" (for them) 14% of positive:

Positives Tests Ratio
466 2511 0.19
587 3981 0.15
769 2525 0.3
778 3997 0.19
1247 5703 0.22
1492 7875 0.19
1797 3889 0.46
977 6935 0.14
2313 12393 0.19
2651 12857 0.21
2547 11477 0.22
3497 11682 0.3
3590 15729 0.23
3233 13063 0.25
3526 10695 0.33
4207 16884 0.25
5322 17236 0.31
5986 24109 0.25
6557 26336 0.25
5560 25180 0.22
4789 17066 0.22
5249 21496 0.24
5210 27481 0.19
6153 36615 0.17
5959 33019 0.18
5974 35447 0.17
5217 24504 0.21
4050 23329 0.17
4053 29609 0.14
4782 34455 0.14

 

 

 

 

Last 2 days are those with the less positive cases by tests results this month by a significant amount (outside the strange under 1000 case March 10 day), 4000 or 4700 being maybe more just the difference in volume than any indication trend wise.

Edited by Barnack
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Another sign that the Italy lockdown is working:

Quote

The death toll from Covid-19 in Italy has climbed by 727 to 13,155 – the lowest number since March 26.

 

Edited by MrGlass2
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2 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Another sign that the Italy lockdown is working:

That a good sign, because the median death is around 20.5 days after infection I think from Wuhan numbers, if we see the numbers goes down 20 days after the measure taken march 10, that could link the reduction to these measure directly.

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41 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

They're also expecting 0 deaths from July 16th onwards. 

That's with social distancing ending June 1. Six weeks later there are no deaths? That projection is very inaccurate, I believe. Not worth even looking at.

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1 minute ago, doublejack said:

That's with social distancing ending June 1. Six weeks later there are no deaths? That projection is very inaccurate, I believe. Not worth even looking at.

The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic

 

http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

 

I think those numbers assume nation wide strict measure taken at the latest next week.

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15 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Damn, Italy new cases back to 4.8k after two days of 4k. Clearly exponential growth has been curbed, but still a long road back.

🔴 #Coronavirus, national update at 18

• Current cases: 80,572 (+2,937)
• Deceased: 13,155 (+727)
• Healed: 16,847 (+1,118)
• Hospitalized in Intensive Care: 4.035 (+12)

Total cases: 110.574 (+4.782, + 4.5%)
 


 

And yesterday the government said that the measures will remain until Easter

🤡🤡

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8 minutes ago, Barnack said:

The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic

 

http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

 

I think those numbers assume nation wide strict measure taken at the latest next week.

Actually I think it is a pretty solid model. Been going to it since last Friday when it came online.

Numbers won't be 0 deaths through the last half of July, but if things go according to plan they should be very low (single digits).

The most important point to understand about the model is that it is basically a best case model. It assumes that all states will enact strict social mitigation measures within the next week and keep them in place through May 30th. It also assumes the mitigation measures will work as expected.

 

If any of those things end up not happening then it would undercount likely deaths and the tail of the model would be too short. 

Note the confidence interval is very large for the model right now - the mean death projection through August 4th as of today is 93,765 (note that is a 10K increase from yesterday's run) with a confidence interval that stretches from 40K on the low end to 180K on the top end. As they get more data from the states each day it will be refined and become more accurate.

 

Also, when the head of the project was interviewed on CNN he mentioned they will eventually have to build a model for the 2nd wave, but right now all their focus is on the first wave. 

 

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7 hours ago, Jamiem said:

I’m Maori and I can assure you there are many groups that are more susceptible to this than me, namely the elderly and homeless for starters.

 

Once again the reason that in recent history Maori have faired worse during diseases is not due to genetics, Maori have been living amongst other ethnic groups for nearly 200 years now so very different to what happened when Europeans first came and with them their diseases and there was no immunity to those. The reason is due to inequality in the same way that Black communities in the US are generally worse off, thus leading to numourous health factors which negatively impact the severity of an illness when contracted.

 

Edit: Also another factor disproving your audacious theory is that most Maori in modern times (including myself) have some European heritage, yet they are still disproportionately affected. It’s almost like race doesn’t play a part in how things play out, crazy stuff. 

Another example in the US are Native Americans. Navajo Nation has much higher obesity rates, higher poverty rates, and lower incomes than average. They are currently at 174 cases and 7 deaths.

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6 hours ago, AndyK said:

Disease resistance is pretty fundamental to genetic evolution, to deny that is to deny science. 


No one here is denying that disease resistance exists or that it's part of evolution. You are the one who is conflating adaptive immunity with genetic resistance, among making an extraordinary number of other statements are completely, absolutely wrong. I think most of those have been covered already by other posters, so I hope there will be no need to re-visit them.

@Jamiem @aabattery @Plain Old Tele and @George Parr have already explained that increased Maori mortality to disease exists for socioeconomic reasons rather than genetic ones, and that this is an equally novel virus for all human populations, meaning that there is no expectation of pre-existing genetic resistance (or even adaptive immunity) within specific populations. (Thanks to all posters who responded, but I had to do a shout-out for those key points. Hope I didn't miss someone!)

However, to make it absolutely clear, a few additional points:

Yes, this virus is completely novel, by definition. The fact that there are distantly related viruses that infect humans worldwide, and the fact that a closely-related virus (SARS) has infected a small number of humans, does not make it not novel, or even less novel.

 

However, pandemics are NOT necessarily novel diseases. There are simply a widespread global outbreak of a disease, and there are many cases in history of pandemics that were not novel diseases. (So you cannot go back in history and find a pandemic that had a different response in different human populations and necessarily conclude "oh look, a different response to a novel disease".)

There is no evidence whatsoever that Europeans have greater genetic resistance than other populations to the other distantly-related coronaviruses that infect humans. Even if there were, it would mean very little or nothing with regards to this coronavirus, which is distantly related and known to enter human cells by via a different binding site than the other human coronaviruses.

There is likewise no such evidence that the Maori have any genetic susceptibility to the prior human coronaviruses. Again, even if there were, it would mean very little or nothing.

It may very well be that there are genetic variants in the human population that create resistance to the novel coronavirus. It may even be that some of these variants are more common in certain populations. However, there is no reason whatsoever to predict that such variants will be more common in Europeans or any other ethnic group, because the distribution of the prior human coronaviruses is worldwide.

Please, please, maybe consider that you don't know these subjects nearly well enough to be drawing your own conclusions that aren't directly in the sources you cite.

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14 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

It assumes that all states will enact strict social mitigation measures within the next week and keep them in place through May 30th.

Yes I imagine that a month long (and longer for some region) strict regime would lead to incredible low number of death for the first wave (and still unknown what happen)

 

1 full nation month long strict measure would be quite something, but more and more do not sound impossible.

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