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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

No shit. Trump still is to blame for 99%. Fucking idiot trusted China 

That's not enough to explain his 7 weeks (from mid-Jan to early March) of inaction and purposely ignoring the risks though. He or his people on the cabinet should have seen Italy's situation. He should have known it was a big deal China locked down the Wuhan area and other big cities, which had prompted other Asian countries to take significant containment measures. China values their economy more than human life. It would take something really damaging for them to shut down the economy on Jan 22.

 

My theory is Trump, always self-centered and skeptical of science, did not think the virus would be more deadly than the flu. Any collective action to contain it that would disrupt the economy (and the stock market too) would be unwarranted. Even it would kill thousands of lives, he thought it would cause only a small ripple and closing down the economy for it would be unwise, It was the same thinking as that of the Chinese government in the initial phase. "It's just the flu", business as usual. He only acted when the thing was spreading uncontrollably.

 

The world should demand answers from China for its coverup from December to mid-January. The US should demand accountability from the Trump admin for its inaction and purposely ignoring the risks.

Edited by Neucentro
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Posted (edited)

As I've mentioned, China's initial cover-up of the outbreak cost China and the rest of the world valuable time. It's beyond odious if they continued to intentionally under-report cases and deaths after that time.
 

However, even if it was intended to do so, the Chinese data did not mislead epidemiologists with regards to the transmissibility or severity of the virus, and therefore Western politicans have no right to use any of that data as an excuse for their delayed responses.

The earliest estimates of both the transmissibility and severity in the academic literature are consistent with what is now known about the virus, and were alarming to epidemiologists. The estimates of transmissibilty also did not even use the Chinese data, which was known to be extremely inadequate at the time.

The first transmissibility estimates in the academic literature were published around January 25 and inferred the rate of spread within Wuhan (R0 from 1.5-3.5, ~2.6 midrange estimate) by using the prevalence found among travellers leaving Wuhan (as I've mentioned). Other following and widely cited estimates (including those used by the WHO) also did not use the Chinese data - it was never a secret that widespread testing started far too late in Hubei for transmissibility estimates from confirmed cases there to be reliable. The earliest estimates are remarkably consistent with more recent estimates inferred from the spread in Europe (R0 from 2.4-3.3)

The earliest estimates of the fatality rate were published around February 10 and used both Chinese data, and data from overseas cases. The case fatality rate as reported in China from earliest data was actually higher (18%!) because of the underreporting of cases, whether intentional or not. So if that data was taken at face value by epidemiologists, it should have actually led us to be more alarmed, not less. However, the earliest estimate (and other similar estimates, including those cited by the WHO in their reports) used modelling (from overseas detections, as above) to estimate the probable true number of cases within China at that time, and therefore arrived at a value of 0.5%-4% for all cases (symptomatic + asymptomatic), with the midrange estimate being ~1%. Again, this is remarkably consistent with current estimates of the infection fatality rate (~0.94%).

When you hear Western politicians blaming Chinese data for their delayed responses, they're full of shit. The delayed responses in the West are because our politicians ignored scientists that were raising the alarm, and had arrived at accurate estimates of transmissiblity and severity by January 25 and February 10, respectively. Their modelling was never reliant on the reported Chinese case counts.

Edited by Jason
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Does anyone have it or know anyone that personally has it? I’m trying to figure out how quickly the symptoms come on. I understand that a lot of people are having mild cases, and others are Having more extreme. 
 

I woke up this morning with a headache, which didn’t really phase me because I have headaches all the time. I was coughing a little bit, but I’ve taken some DayQuil and the coughing is going away. I never really had a coughing fit, I just had a couple here and there. And then I had chills and I took my temperature and it was 95°. So I took a shower but I had some hot tea And now it’s back up to 96.1. And I have a slight tightness in my chest, but I have no problem breathing.

 

I’m just trying to figure out if anyone else started out this way.  I have the whole thing is just some kind of like stress induced nonsense

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Posted (edited)

We’re about to have a big jump in deaths in Canada over the next few weeks I imagine cause of this. In Ontario alone today we basically doubled our death toll in a day I believe. So sad, I hope they can figure out a way to stop the spread in the homes :( 

 

 

 

Edited by cax16
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12 minutes ago, Cap said:

Does anyone have it or know anyone that personally has it? I’m trying to figure out how quickly the symptoms come on. I understand that a lot of people are having mild cases, and others are Having more extreme. 
 

I woke up this morning with a headache, which didn’t really phase me because I have headaches all the time. I was coughing a little bit, but I’ve taken some DayQuil and the coughing is going away. I never really had a coughing fit, I just had a couple here and there. And then I had chills and I took my temperature and it was 95°. So I took a shower but I had some hot tea And now it’s back up to 96.1. And I have a slight tightness in my chest, but I have no problem breathing.

 

I’m just trying to figure out if anyone else started out this way.  I have the whole thing is just some kind of like stress induced nonsense

Don't know anyone personally as of yet but those sound like the typical symptoms I've read about. Of course these days any small sickness and I'm guessing we're all going to start feeling the symptoms out of fear whether they are really there or not.

 

Depending on where you live it might be relatively easy to go get tested, in which case if you aren't feeling better tomorrow would probably be good, or it could be nearly impossible like where I live, in which case you should just stay away from anyone until you're feeling better. Apparently at my work they're saying if anyone has any cold or flu symptoms they have to close for a couple days and test everyone (no mention of how we'll all get tested considering they aren't testing almost anyone here). Just waiting for the upcoming day when somebody at work coughs once and the whole place gets shut down... at this point we might as well just close already like any sensible business

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42 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

You know, I'll be really curious to see what movies come out of this after this blows over. Should be quite interesting. $200M OW?

An excellent horror film can be made out of this. Not your 21st century jump-cut scares. Good ol' Hitchcockian horror. Build up the dread. The audience knows how the story will go, so use that to your advantage and twist the knife slowly. Scare people with the horrors of reality, about how horrible the world managed the situation. Not just the virus, but the societal effects.

 

On another note, my guess right now is that the absolute earliest movie theaters could reopen right now is early August. That's assuming this peaks in late April/early May (I'm not sold on the idea this is peaking in two weeks), and really trails off in June. There will need to be a decent grace period to get operations rolling again, and get potential customers comfortable with the idea of going back to theaters. In fact, I imagine social distancing will still be enforced when theaters re-open for a good while.

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1 minute ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

In fact, I imagine social distancing will still be enforced when theaters re-open for a good while.

For sure. For at least the first month theaters will still be doing the "selling at 50% capacity" thing they were doing before everything was completely shutdown (another reason why movies that would be playing right now in an alternate universe like Mulan and A Quiet Place Part II will still be held off for a bit once theaters do reopen).

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14 minutes ago, Cap said:

Does anyone have it or know anyone that personally has it? I’m trying to figure out how quickly the symptoms come on. I understand that a lot of people are having mild cases, and others are Having more extreme. 
 

I woke up this morning with a headache, which didn’t really phase me because I have headaches all the time. I was coughing a little bit, but I’ve taken some DayQuil and the coughing is going away. I never really had a coughing fit, I just had a couple here and there. And then I had chills and I took my temperature and it was 95°. So I took a shower but I had some hot tea And now it’s back up to 96.1. And I have a slight tightness in my chest, but I have no problem breathing.

 

I’m just trying to figure out if anyone else started out this way.  I have the whole thing is just some kind of like stress induced nonsense


https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-symptom-progression-11-03-2020.pdf

Table 3 is a bit hard to read, because the proportion is actually a proportion of symptoms, not a proportion of people (there were 448 people in the studied cohort, but not all of them had detailed case histories).

Key take-aways though:

Fever is most common symptom, followed by cough/sore throat (grouped together). On average, fever and cough both happen within a day of onset of earliest symptoms (i.e usually one shortly follows the other). A majority of cases that report those symptoms will have them occur within 2 days ~85% of the time. Other reports indicate that in symptomatic cases, fever happens about ~90% of the time, and cough about two-thirds of the time.

Shortness of breath isn't directly listed but I'm guessing is what is meant by "respiratory symptoms" (in the absence of pneumonia), it's less common but happens on average 5 days after the earliest symptoms, (Note: shortness of breath would also exist in most of the cases with pneumonia, average presentation at 6 days).

Myalgia/fatigue is the next most common symptom, about one-fifth as common as fever, and has an average presentation of 2 days after onset.

Other symptoms are all fairly uncommon to rare.

Hope you're okay!

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Attaboy, Gov. Newsom.

 

Newsom was asked by host Jake Tapper if he had a message for governors of states that have not issued statewide stay-at-home orders amid the coronavirus pandemic. Newsom said:

 

“My message is this: What are you waiting for? What more evidence do you need? If you think it’s not going to happen to you there are many proof points all across this country - for that matter all around the rest of the world. Don’t dream of regretting. Lean into the moment, take responsibility to meet it head-on. You’ll never regret overcompensating at the moment so that you’re preparing people for meeting this moment in the responsible way. And there’s no greater intervention - period, full stop, none - than physical distancing. We talk about social distancing, but it’s really physical distancing. You can stay socially connected but you need to be physically apart. And that foundationally and fundamentally we know can bend the curve, can save lives and ultimately can get people back to work and get society back to some semblance of normalcy faster than anything else we can do.”

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The UK. 
 

On 25 March, Horton told MPs on the science and technology select committee that Sage appeared to have little input from public health experts and doctors, despite being chaired by the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, and the chief scientific officer, Sir Patrick Vallance.

 

“We thought we could have a controlled epidemic. We thought we could manage that epidemic over the course of March and April, push the curve to the right, build up herd immunity and that way we could protect people,” said Horton. “The reason why that strategy was wrong is it didn’t recognise that 20% of people infected would end up with severe critical illness. The evidence was there at the end of January.”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/absolutely-wrong-how-uk-coronavirus-test-strategy-unravelled

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

America, fam.

 

 

 

Reminds me of the time we took our cat to the vet because she had this cut down part of her back. The vet kept listing all these various things she "needed" to be sure she was okay. It involved stitches, some sort of X-Ray or scan to make sure nothing was broken inside, some kind of medicine in case it was infected, some special cat food for some reason, etc. etc.

 

Basically they were just listing as many expensive things as they could think to charge us and I was like wtf I'm not paying for all this crap, just to get the appointment was like 400$. So I just got the stitches and reminded myself not to go to vet again unless I really had to.

 

Can't imagine going to an actual DOCTOR being like that. I end up at my doctors a few times a year, and if there's something he's checking up on I can go like 4-5 times in the span of a couple months just to be sure. I've gotten tons of X-Rays and and blood work and things checked "just to be sure" cause why not? can't hurt.

 

But if I had to pay for literally all of that every time, and if I had to wonder whether my doctor was actually telling me things that I needed or just trying to get me to take a bunch of expensive tests then... idk... just glad I don't live in the US

Edited by Killimano3
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Posted (edited)

Hi!

 

Wow, I haven't checked on these forum for ages because I didn't think box office numbers would look anything but dismal right now with all the covid 19 lock downs. But who knew there would be this huge thread on Covid 19 ? 

 

Hope everyone is ok.  I have to chip in with just one comment.

 

Everyone is focusing too much on the lock down. This is understandable because in some countries, the virus is widespread already, and a lock down is the only way to "flatten the curve".  However, if you think about it from a longer term perspective, you have to consider:

 

1) If this lasts for a year or more, are you going to stay in lock down for a year or more? How many countries can even handle having the majority of its citizens stay in lock down for a year or more? 

 

2) So, if you can't do that, this means that at some point, you are going to have to risk slowly relaxing the lock down. In fact, I would imagine after a month or two of lock down, there will be lots of desperate people already.

 

3) However, once you start relaxing the lock downs, the virus is going to come back in full force again. Let's not kid ourselves, this virus is now too widespread now to be "eradicated" the way SARs was.

 

4) This means that if your control measures are not in place. Once you have relax these lock downs, that death count is going to spike up again. 

 

This means you have to set up all the containment, testing and control measures in place so that your whole population can go about their work under this new norm. The way Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore has done it without a full lockdown. 

 

All this focus on the lockdown is nearsighted. If your government is not thinking hard about how to handle this virus after the lockdown is relaxed, it IS going to come back in full focus and eventually, that country will be forced into lockdown again. The lockdown is NOT a cure all. It is a last resort measure when you have failed in containment plus your testing, containment and prevention measures are not fully ready yet. Unless as a country, you are ready to stay locked down for a full year, otherwise, the governments need to seriously start thinking and planning about how to handle life after the lockdown. 

 

How many governments are thinking about that right now? How many are just still so near sighted they are just only thinking about the current situation (including lockdowns). If you do that, you are still only reacting to the virus. You are not being proactive, you are not thinking ahead.

Edited by Eldenfirefly
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https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/newborn-in-connecticut-dies-of-coronavirus/2248709/

 

Quote

The governor of Connecticut delivered heart-breaking news about the COVID-19 pandemic and said an infant girl here in the state died of coronavirus.

This is absolutely devastating. All this talk of continuing with economy and let the fittest survive should just look at news like this. It would be crippling not just to elderly but also to next gen. I feel for all new parents at this point(i know few who had babies in last 1-2 months). Its challenging times to raise a baby for sure. 

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1 hour ago, Jason said:

When you hear Western politicians blaming Chinese data for their delayed responses, they're full of shit. The delayed responses in the West are because our politicians ignored scientists that were raising the alarm, and had arrived at accurate estimates of transmissiblity and severity by January 25 and February 10, respectively. Their modelling was never reliant on the reported Chinese case counts.

End of the day it's everyone's fault as you said. China has a major share of the blame for covering it up, but the west watched the horror show in Wuhan and assumed things would continue to be normal. 

 

This is going to be a tough year.

 

 

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Firstly, I don’t think I have coronavirus. 
 

I’ve been back at work this week but we only opened for the morning. Monday afternoon I went for a run but felt more tired then usual. I also had an irregular dry cough/throat clearing. Tuesday morning I felt OK so I still went to work. However, Tuesday afternoon my throat felt a bit sore and the dry cough became more persistent. For some reason a forced myself to go for a run again but I struggled and it took a bit longer the usual. 
 

At a normal time I probably would have gone to work on Wednesday but given the current environment I thought it best to play it safe and stay home. I managed to find a thermometer which showed I didn’t have a fever. I called my GP in the morning and he went through a number of questions.  
 

Had I been in contact with a confirmed case? No

Where was work? Sydney

Have I used public transport? Yes

When did I last use public transport? Mon/Tue

How crowded was it? Virtually empty (Public Transport in Sydney is still operating at the normal schedule)

 

He then went through the 6 primary symptoms. I pretty much only had one and a half of the symptoms. He said it was unlikely I had it given all of that and that I should stay home. If anything changes I should call back. He didn’t suggest testing and I didn’t press the point. 
 

It’s Thursday afternoon now and I feel much better. I did get a call from work today and now I’m off again until late April. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, Plain Old Tele said:

America, fam.

 

 

More than $600 for a X-ray, more than $7000 for blood test???????? :winomg:

What the actual fuck???

America's health care system is so fucked up 

 

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I actually feel that the death counts are a morbid but effective way to access how widespread the virus is in the country. This assumes of course that deaths attributable to covid 19 are not covered up. 

 

We have to assume a mortality rate. It has been as high as 10% in Italy and as low as 1% or even 0.5%. But let's take a middle of the road 2%.

 

If you have 5000 covid 19 deaths now. Based on a mortality rate of 2%. That means that you HAD 100,000 infected cases two to three weeks ago. This is a snap shot of how many people were infected weeks ago. You then of course have to assume that during these two to three weeks, all these 100,000 infected have then gone on to further infect yet even more people.

 

The number of cases is misleading. Because most countries probably haven't done enough testing to be able to capture all the infected cases. Italy and Spain have literally given up on testing. They are only testing the more seriously sick that show up at the hospitals.

 

Of course, if a country is doing so little testing it doesn't even know its deaths are of covid 19 (classifying them as other stuff). Then, we have a even more serious problem.

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1 hour ago, Plain Old Tele said:

America, fam.

 

 

Contrast with Australia. 
 

If I visit the GP it doesn’t cost me anything and Medicare pays him $38.20 per visit under bulk billing.  If I had to get a coronavirus test it wouldn’t cost anything. If I had to go to the emergency room at the hospital it wouldn’t cost me anything. 
 

Last year I had a skin cancer cut out of my forehead.  My GP (he has surgery training) did the surgery over about 45 minutes. Medicare paid my GP about $200 all up and paid the lab doctor about $85 to test the biopsy. No cost at all to me. 

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17 minutes ago, bladels said:

More than $600 for a X-ray, more than $7000 for blood test???????? :winomg:

What the actual fuck???

America's health care system is so fucked up 

 

 

2 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

Contrast with Australia. 
 

If I visit the GP it doesn’t cost me anything and Medicare pays him $38.20 per visit under bulk billing.  If I had to get a coronavirus test it wouldn’t cost anything. If I had to go to the emergency room at the hospital it wouldn’t cost me anything. 
 

Last year I had a skin cancer cut out of my forehead.  My GP (he has surgery training) did the surgery over about 45 minutes. Medicare paid my GP about $200 all up and paid the lab doctor about $85 to test the biopsy. No cost at all to me. 


Last fall I had to take an ambulance to the emergency room (at a hospital outside my network). The hospital was 1.4 miles from my house, and once I was there, I was given a bed temporarily while they gave me some IV fluids. I was there maybe an hour.

 

While waiting for a bed (and treatment), I was given a thick sheaf of papers to sign — basically, I had to accept financial responsibility for any and all expenses not covered by my insurance. Note: this was before a doctor had seen me so there was no way even to remotely estimate what the cost might be. Nonetheless, I had to sign in order to receive care. It was terrifying.

 

Total cost: $1,500 (cheap! because the ambulance was from the Fire Department, not a private company). Fortunately, I have a very good healthcare plan and it covers out-of-network ER trips, so I ended up paying $30 all told. But the remaining $1,430 was paid by somebody.

 

Our healthcare system is sooooo fucked up.

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