Jump to content
DeeCee

Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Read the thread, Neil does not do fake news.

 

The model being used to predict course of the virus may be wrong.


The Imperial College models did not actually use the reported Chinese case counts to calculate R0. They modelled the growth in China by using the prevalance of cases being detected in travellers leaving China. (Epidemiological estimates of the true death toll in China using similar methods have arrived at a death toll in Wuhan up to ~3x the reported numbers in a worst-case scenario.)

They did use Chinese death counts to estimate the fatality rate of the virus, but they also used data from overseas. Evidence from other countries is broadly consistent with an infection fatality rate of ~1%, and a case fatality rate of 1-2% for all symptomatic cases.

Concerns about the Chinese data don't change anything at this point, since we have plenty of other data with which to construct models, and because in any case the results using Chinese data have been consistent with results from elsewhere, within confidence intervals.

As I've mentioned, estimates of the transmissibility (R0) never relied on the reported Chinese case counts, which were understood to be unreliable.

Edited by Jason
  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I didn’t feel that a Winona or apoc were exactly right, but I don’t think I agree with the tone or basic thesis of this post. The way most people seem to be commenting (in, e.g. the BW thread) I get the impression that the awareness of a 2nd wave is pretty low, and while dubalb can certainly get annoying and repetitive with it I feel like it’s a likelihood which probably deserves more emphasis atm, rather than less.   
 

Also I’m skeptical of theaters remaining open and blockbusters releasing through a Big 2nd wave, but that’s a separate matter.

I know I can get annoying at times,and I apologize, but on this topic I think it's important people understand the facts, and not reject them because they don't like them.

And at any real uptick in the virus numbers, the restrictions will come back.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Jason said:


The Imperial College models did not actually use the reported Chinese case counts to calculate R0. They modelled the growth in China by using the prevalance of cases being detected in travellers leaving China. Epidemiological estimates of the true death toll in China using similar methods have arrived at a death toll in Wuhan up to ~3x the reported numbers in a worst-case scenario).

They did use Chinese death counts to estimate the fatality rate of the virus, but they also used data from overseas. Evidence from other countries is broadly consistent with an infection fatality rate of ~1%, and a case fatality rate of 1-2% for all symptomatic cases.

Concerns about the Chinese data don't change anything at this point, since we have plenty of other data with which to construct models, and because in any case the results using Chinese data have been consistent with results from elsewhere, within confidence intervals.

As I've mentioned, estimates of the transmissibility (R0) never relied on the reported Chinese case counts, which were understood to be unreliable.

The model used by Prof Pike from Imperial college definitely did use the data from China and China alone.

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20041475v1

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Also I’m skeptical of theaters remaining open and blockbusters releasing through a Big 2nd wave, but that’s a separate matter.

The coronavirus will kill millions of people worldwide. At the first sign of another wave in a country the movies (and concerts, and sportsball events...) are gone.

Edited by MrGlass2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I didn’t feel that a Winona or apoc were exactly right, but I don’t think I agree with the tone or basic thesis of this post. The way most people seem to be commenting (in, e.g. the BW thread) I get the impression that the awareness of a 2nd wave is pretty low, and while dubalb can certainly get annoying and repetitive with it I feel like it’s a likelihood which probably deserves more emphasis atm, rather than less.   
 

Also I’m skeptical of theaters remaining open and blockbusters releasing through a Big 2nd wave, but that’s a separate matter.

The Black Widow thread are people whining about how Disney is treating MCU like trash because they don't give Marvel movies December release dates. Don't know how that equates with them not being aware about a second wave happening. Even people like Gamora have mentioned they are unsure this is coming out in November.

 

And besides, there are plenty of other people in this thread who have mentioned a second wave happening in the past. Sure there may be some clueless people here and there, but dudalb is acting as if we're all completely oblivious and unaware about what medical experts are saying.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, dudalb said:

Good news, but best  case scenario is it will be months before a vaccine is ready.

Vaccines have to be developed slowly and tested throughly when you consider what a vaccine does;it gives you a mild cast of the virus to get your body to manafacture it's defenses. Should be obvious as to why even a minor miscalculation could be disasterous.


I’m well aware of that, but this is a promising first step. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Eric Lightfoot said:

I GET IT JESUS CHRIST. I KNOW THERE'S GOING TO BE A SECOND WAVE YOU DON'T HAVE TO TELL PEOPLE THIS EVERY OTHER DAY.

 

I'm just under the assumption, for the time being, though I could be completely and utterly 100% wrong here that theaters could still be open, since the second wave is typically weaker, and perhaps things will not be as bad or call for theater shutdowns. Again, I could be completely wrong, and I will admit it could very well be wishful thinking. But I'm just hoping for the best right now.

 

Now, could you please stop annoying people for once and stop telling people every other second a second wave is coming? We all know it's likely. We all know it's happening. We're all paying attention to what's going on. We don't need you to parrot the same thing over and over again, and act condescending on how we're not paying attention to medical experts or whatever and act as if we're all brain dead idiots who don't know what's happening.

Second wave is coming, bigger and stronger too. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:


I’m well aware of that, but this is a promising first step. 

oh, I agree, but it's going be months, best case scenario for it to reach the distribution stage.

The Timeline for vaccines in "Contagion" is pretty damn accurate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, POTUS 2020 said:

Second wave is coming, bigger and stronger too. 

I would not predict how strong the second wave will be.

And you had better hope not, since a second wave in the fall will destroy any chances for a second term for your Hero.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Eric Lightfoot said:

The Black Widow thread are people whining about how Disney is treating MCU like trash because they don't give Marvel movies December release dates. Don't know how that equates with them not being aware about a second wave happening. Even people like Gamora have mentioned they are unsure this is coming out in November.

 

And besides, there are plenty of other people in this thread who have mentioned a second wave happening in the past. Sure there may be some clueless people here and there, but dudalb is acting as if we're all completely oblivious and unaware about what medical experts are saying.

I don’t get what your beef is with people hoping for an MCU movie at Christmas, but that’s a total non sequitor.
 

My point is that a lot more comments seem to assume that it will hit the Nov 6 date vs being skeptical of it.   
 

generally speaking, most of the discourse around dates nd box office that I’ve seen recently has been acting like Aug-Dec will be fairly normal, and if there’s a 2nd wave they’ll probably be closer to how March was.

Edited by Arendelle Legion

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, AndyK said:

The model used by Prof Pike from Imperial college definitely did use the data from China and China alone.

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20041475v1


I presumed you were referring to the widely cited models published in the Imperial College COVID-19 reports. I can't imagine why, when you referred to "the model", you would be referring to this obscure model from an engineer at their Department of Engineering, instead of the widely cited models from epidemiologists at their Faculty of Medicine/School of Public Health.

It has also neither passed peer-review nor been widely cited. I don't see it listed on Imperial College's COVID-19 site either.

It's making a number of questionable assumptions aside from taking the Chinese data at face value, but I would hope that those in government and other decision makers can recognize the difference in significance between epidemiological models being published by epidemiologists, and ad-hoc models being "published" by non-epidemiologists.

To be clear, it's of absolutely no concern to me if some random ad-hoc models out there have taken the Chinese data at face value. The important thing is that the widely cited models being used by epidemiologists have not.

Edited by Jason
  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[deleted]  Jason said it better

  • Like 2
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

A little levity might be in order..

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Forget any big movies, games and other content until Summer 2021. We will be dealing with multiple waves of this virus. PS5 and Xbox One 2 will get delayed. Same with all these movies. I legit loled when I saw Disney scheduling Mulan for July 24. That thing ain't coming out earlier than 2021.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

....what?!

 

 

COVID-19 feels like a harsh lesson in the realities of why elected government matters.  Crises are inevitable but they can be made much worse if you elect incompetent leadership.

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I do find it slightly humerus that the virus is finally the topic that gets Duldabs incessant repetitive behavior noticed 🤣 I unblocked him for this since it wasnt conversations related to Movies and New Mutants in particular but the behavior remains the same. 

By all means make sure we know and I am glad we have folks here that arent ostriches but at times the incessant head battering is more a problem than a help. 

 

Edited to add: Eric finally reaching peak was funny since I see him fairly balanced in the threads I am usually in. So maybe I just find more humor in this than the rest of yall 🤣🤷‍♂️

Edited by narniadis
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

....what?!

 

 

It's not that bad...

 

"He explained that it would allow exercise on the beach by individuals/family groups but NO congregating. Moreover, he explained that Rangers were to be patrolling the beach to enforce strict social distancing," said Petrea in his post.

According to the administrative order issued by Williams, the use of chairs, tents and umbrellas will be prohibited on Georgia’s beaches seaward of the ordinary high-water mark, effective at 6 p.m. April 3 through 11:59 p.m. April 13."

 

VA has been very successful keeping trails and lakes open for the same thing...exercise for families who are local only...

 

Beaches are a little more "attractive nuisances" to encourage getting together, but being able to bring nothing to the beach probably will discourage it...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Jason said:


I presumed you were referring to the widely cited models published in the Imperial College COVID-19 reports. I can't imagine why, when you referred to "the model", you would be referring to this obscure model from the Department of Engineeering, instead of the widely cited models from epidemiologists at their Faculty of Medicine/School of Public Health.

It has also neither passed peer-review nor been widely cited. I don't see it listed on Imperial College's COVID-19 site either.

It's making a number of questionable assumptions aside from taking the Chinese data at face value, but I would hope that those in government and other decision makers can recognize the difference in significance between epidemiological models being published by epidemiologists, and ad-hoc models being "published" by non-epidemiologists.

To be clear, it's of absolutely no concern to me if some random ad-hoc models out there have taken the Chinese data at face value. The important thing is that the widely cited models being used by epidemiologists have not.

It was as widely reported as the first one was ( and on here) because it calculated the likely death rates in various countries.

 

Its obviously fatally flawed.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

It's not that bad...

 

"He explained that it would allow exercise on the beach by individuals/family groups but NO congregating. Moreover, he explained that Rangers were to be patrolling the beach to enforce strict social distancing," said Petrea in his post.

According to the administrative order issued by Williams, the use of chairs, tents and umbrellas will be prohibited on Georgia’s beaches seaward of the ordinary high-water mark, effective at 6 p.m. April 3 through 11:59 p.m. April 13."

 

VA has been very successful keeping trails and lakes open for the same thing...exercise for families who are local only...

 

Beaches are a little more "attractive nuisances" to encourage getting together, but being able to bring nothing to the beach probably will discourage it...


I mean, that sounds fine in theory. It’s virtually certain that people are gonna ignore the finer details, though (IMO) — and Georgia’s hardly in a place where they have some leeway.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.