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DeeCee

Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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Responding to the economy vs lost lives mentioned earlier.

Economic and social studies consistently show that the longer you lock things down, the fewer people who die and the better the economy does in the long run (and even the short run)

 

There is research looking at the 1918 Pandemic and the cities that shut down the earliest and stayed shut the longest had the fewest deaths and the best economic recoveries.

 

The counterintuitive reasoning for this is as follows. The fallacy is you let people go back to work, back to 'normal', and then some higher amount of people die but the economy does better. In actuality you do not go back to 'normal', there is a new normal that is different from the old normal. In the new normal some people go back to work - but they mostly get sick and have to stop working and the death rate goes up. Meanwhile more and more people choose not to work because they would rather be alive than dead. As more people get sick, less people are available to work and the economy never actually recovers but actually gets even worse.

 

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/31/21199874/coronavirus-spanish-flu-social-distancing

 

[Mod Edit:Added link to article]

 

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1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

If we have a protracted downturn, economy will definitely kill way more in the longrun. Millions.

Doubtful. Some much poorer countries have higher life expectancy than the US.

Also:

 

Quote

But the assumption that people die more during recessions is wrong, at least in wealthy countries. Past economic downturns show that, in fact, mortality rates go down in recessions, for a number of reasons. If you’re weighing the human cost of a recession or depression against the human cost of illness and death from the virus itself, as Trump and policymakers across the country are doing right now, it’s important to keep in mind that the toll of a recession in terms of lives lost is not a factor.

 

Edited by MrGlass2
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18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

re: coronavirus and voting concerns:

 

 

you can see the clip here:

 

 

...

 

Oh yeah.  I left something off of the PW summay:

 

YiBe40t.png YiBe40t.png YiBe40t.png 

@Porthos You’re really downplaying the concerns about voting fraud. 
 

https://www.npr.org/2019/07/30/746800630/north-carolina-gop-operative-faces-new-felony-charges-that-allege-ballot-fraud

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6 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

If this was the US Politics thread I would have reminded folks about it. :ph34r:;)

 

(almost felt like snarking about it, but taking a pot shot at Trump's hypocrisy was good enuf for this thread :lol:)

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46 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

 

But you wouldn’t know any of this if you got your information from the World Health Organization. The country is Taiwan, which the WHO refuses to recognize as a sovereign state.

The WHO is part of the United Nations, membership is decided by the current members. They also don't have the ability to "recognize" states.

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1 hour ago, Menor said:

Obama sat around doing nothing because for the vast majority of his term he had a a Congress which was hell-bent on blocking everything.

6 of his 8 years. 

 

Wow Morgan Stanley predicts 38% GDP drop for Q2. 5% drop is considering horrific.

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China pauses for three-minutes to remember victims of coronavirus

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Nay-say all you want folks, something like this is likely to be coming to baseball if/when social restrictions continue into June.  There is simply too much money being left on the table (including at the all powerful cable cos).

 

Ken Rosenthal brings up the elephant in the room (transmission from a stray hotel worker or something similar), and that's absolutely is the deal breaker when it comes to concern.  It might be insurmountable.

 

But if social distancing/crowd restrictions aren't lifted/projected to be lifted in June or July I think the temptation to do something... anything sports related will mount.  Both from an economic standpoint and a "provide a much needed diversion for the public" one.

 

And, understand, I ain't advocating for it.  But do I think something like this will happen?  For good or for ill?

 

Y'all tell me what the market forces will be like and the siren song of "safe sports" will be like.  Especially with other sports leagues around the globe looking at similar alleged solutions.

Edited by Porthos
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https://www.blogto.com/city/2020/04/n96-masks/

 

 

I hope this actually pans out and this new N96 mask gets approved and we are able to make it ourselves here. Would be great to share the design with the rest of the world as well if it can help. No details on it yet but apparently it’s in the approval stages now here. 

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50 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Nay-say all you want folks, something like this is likely to be coming to baseball if/when social restrictions continue into June.  There is simply too much money being left on the table (including at the all powerful cable cos).

 

Ken Rosenthal brings up the elephant in the room (transmission from a stray hotel worker or something similar), and that's absolutely is the deal breaker when it comes to concern.  It might be insurmountable.

 

But if social distancing/crowd restrictions aren't lifted/projected to be lifted in June or July I think the temptation to do something... anything sports related will mount.  Both from an economic standpoint and a "provide a much needed diversion for the public" one.

 

And, understand, I ain't advocating for it.  But do I think something like this will happen?  For good or for ill?

 

Y'all tell me what the market forces will be like and the siren song of "safe sports" will be like.  Especially with other sports leagues around the globe looking at similar alleged solutions.

They're delusional. It'll be the same with movie theaters, and film making for that matter. If large groups are restricted, then the show cannot go on, no matter how much the forces that have a stake want it to.

 

The NHL did a quick analysis. How many people, bare minimum, are needed for a professional hockey game. There are 18 skaters and 2 goalies per team. A head coach and two assistant coaches. Two referees and two linesman. Could a game be played with fewer than 50 people present? Turns out the answer is no. Not even close, in fact. The NHL estimated there is simply no way to have a hockey game without more than 200 people present. You need trainers and other essential support staff. League officials. The broadcast crew is of a significant size, by the time you add in production crew, camera operators, on air talent, etc. Factor in one or two radio broadcast teams as well, or more if the game is nationally syndicated (home and visiting teams will almost always have their own broadcast team and have contractual rights).

 

MLB is off their rocker if they think they'll be any different, since their teams and coaching staffs are even larger. There is simply no way to hold games without risk.

 

You want a real solution? Look what NASCAR is doing. I'll be watching their live race this weekend, from virtual Bristol Motor Speedway as 35 of the world's best drivers compete wearing whatever they want from their own basement / home office / kitchen table or whatever. Other professionals in the eSports segment, such as Counter Strike Global Offensive teams, continue to compete as well. That's where the present is at. MLB will return, but not in 2020. If they could afford to lose significant time including a World Series to a labor dispute, they can afford to lose the revenue from a season due to a pandemic. They just need to suck it up and remember there's no crying in baseball.

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1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Nay-say all you want folks, something like this is likely to be coming to baseball if/when social restrictions continue into June.  There is simply too much money being left on the table (including at the all powerful cable cos).

 

Ken Rosenthal brings up the elephant in the room (transmission from a stray hotel worker or something similar), and that's absolutely is the deal breaker when it comes to concern.  It might be insurmountable.

 

But if social distancing/crowd restrictions aren't lifted/projected to be lifted in June or July I think the temptation to do something... anything sports related will mount.  Both from an economic standpoint and a "provide a much needed diversion for the public" one.

 

And, understand, I ain't advocating for it.  But do I think something like this will happen?  For good or for ill?

 

Y'all tell me what the market forces will be like and the siren song of "safe sports" will be like.  Especially with other sports leagues around the globe looking at similar alleged solutions.

Tensions will mount in less than 30 days. Big time

Edited by cdsacken
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One of the options being looked at here for rugby league is “NRL Island”. All the players are isolated on a tropical island and are then flown or bussed to a stadium and kept completely separate from the public. Two rounds were played before being suspended and it may restart in June.  
 

 

https://www.buzzfeed.com/cameronwilson/nrl-island-coronavirus-australia-rugby-league

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20 minutes ago, doublejack said:

They just need to suck it up and remember there's no crying in baseball.

I'm not saying it's a good idea.  I'm saying that we're barely past one week of the regular season being gone and they're already looking at ways to have something this year.  Including looking at the trials and tribulations of what Korean and Japanese leagues are doing (cliff notes: Not all great, bob).

 

If I were a betting man (and I'm absolutely not), I'd personally bet on some form of actual baseball happening.  If only because I can be extremely cynical at times.

 

The greater problem isn't June/July IMO. It is the mooted "second wave" being predicted later this year.  That would come smack in playoff time and cause all sorts of havoc.

 

But do I think something will happen this year in baseball?  Well, like I said, I can be an extremely cynical person at times, and my cynical side says they'll look for any reason to have a cut down season.  And if that means empty stadiums, massive amount of testing and quarantines that would make the participants of Big Brother blush?  Well, I can imagine an awful lot as a famous space pirate once said.

 

Again, not that I think they should.  Just... I won't be surprised one iota is how I will put it.

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And, anyway, the real problem isn't the majors.  There's enough greed money at stake that if they can find something that has a whiff of public safety around it, they'll try to do it.  Not succeed I again add... but try.

 

No, the real problem is the minors.  Take all the near-impossible logistical hurdles involved with 30 teams and multiply that by around 5 to 8 or so. AND add in practically no revenue reasons to do it if they are in empty stadiums. 

 

There is the real hurdle, IMO.  And there are a few teams in the major leagues right now who nearly care more about how their minor leaguers are doing than the major leaguers.

 

If I were a betting man (and again I'm not) I could see the entire minor league season get wiped out before the major league one.  Maybe have some instructional leagues up and running.  Maybe the DSL (in the Dominican Republic) will still go on due to the laws down there.  But aside from that?  Can't see many minor league games being played.   Maybe a stripped down two month season in July and August at AA and AAA, but that's about it.

 

Now @doublejack could be right in that the entire MLB season will be scrapped.  But mark my words, they'll be dragged kicking and screaming all along the way.  

 

The minors? A far far different story.  That I don't have much hope on if social distancing restrictions keep up into June and July.

 

 

Edited by Porthos
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33 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Tensions will mount in less than 30 days. Big time

My actual opinion on how this will play out goes something like this.

 

April is going to be a bad bad bad month (and again my massive thanks and thoughts to all who are fighting on the front lines in absolutely impossible circumstances).  Most of May isn't gonna be good, either.

 

However, If... IF the curve is actually flattened to the degree that in May deaths per day are dropping at a steady pace AND PPE medical supplies AND masks AND tests are far more plentiful in supply than they are now that there are "extras" to go around to more non-essential personnel? 

 

I just think the temptation will be far too great the deeper we get into May if the worst seems to be behind us.  Again, IF there are plentiful supplies and tests.

 

Motivated reasoning is a hell of a drug is how I will put it.  That I am already hearing about detailed plans being looked at just makes me think they'll try.

 

Probably have it blow up in their face.  But try nonetheless.

 

===

 

And, again, none of my comments are saying they should. I just think they'll try.

 

Prove me wrong, Lords of Baseball.

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6 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

I can’t decide who I want to make the documentary about NRL Island. The people who made Fyre or Tiger King. 

Funny you should mention that...

 

 

*reads article*

*reflects*

 

Well, America is the land of second chances, after all.

 

...

 

 

Second chances at trying to get away with it, at least. :ph34r:

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Interesting article comparing the various outcomes between countries.  The big takeaway seems to be test, test and test some more. 
 

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-puzzle-of-coronavirus-a-huge-variation-in-rates-of-death-and-severe-disease-across-the-globe-20200402-p54gkr.html#comments

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By the time of the first death in the UK there had already been 2 deaths in Australia. As of now there have been 30 deaths in Australia and over 3,600 in the UK. It’s just so sad and really hard to wrap your head around the contrast. 

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