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18 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Looks like Spain will extend its lockdown two weeks. Old date was 9 April, new 26 April (government is in session)

Yes, it is confirmed.

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locally a girl I know went to Bali with 8 friends from around the world and got corona aged 27-35 , 4 are now dead in their respective countries, one is about to die. 

 

She however tested positive with no symptoms and will be fine... 

 

An odd disease this is... 

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5 hours ago, stephanos13 said:

23000 new cases in France yesterday. WTH?

 

An error or they added previously unreported cases just like they did with deaths?

According to worldometer:

 

France: on April 3 the French Government reported 17,827 additional cases and 532 additional deaths from nursing homes that had not been reported previously. On April 2, it had reported 884 additional deaths.

 

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2 hours ago, The Futurist said:

If chinese numbers are somewhat true, it means they sacrificed people for the greater good aka  a country of 1,4B entirely covided.



 

You let an entire city get covided (the biggest cities of Wuhan I think), you don't try hard to save everybody, you close the city with a border/wall nobody and I mean Nobody can pass, you shoot on sight any trespasser.

You let famine & people getting crazy without hope develop in this closed city.

But Covid doesn't travel anymore, its carriers anyway.

The pandemic stops, at least the epicenter of it which is paramount in any pandemic.

The Chinese numbers are barely a fraction of what's going on. If the virus reportedly originated around November, that means it must have infected millions. However, their response was effective. I actually completely encourage it. It's basic logistics...to shut down the spread, they had to shut down the city. It's a necessary sacrifice. 

2 hours ago, The Futurist said:

I can't prove it but that s what I think China did to prevent massive European/Western/Other places type contamination in their country.



 

How do you think wars were won during the entire history of mankind ?

 

With Christian/Leftist values ?

 

With smiles and teddy bears ?

 

Think again.

 

Sacrifice, that malevolant word again, rears up its ugly head.

How were wars won in the history of mankind? With smiles, teddy bears, and rainbows. 

 

I'm Arab. I live in the Middle East. Don't presume for even a millisecond to try and explain what war is to me...our fingers know more about war and its effects on countries, the region, the people, and governments than most Westerners will comprehend in a lifetime. Sacrifice is not a malevolent word and is a necessary trait everyone (and all governments) must take for themselves, their families, and their countries.

2 hours ago, The Futurist said:

Also, don't assume the chinese regime is against its people, that s the biggest mistake any westerner (or person with western value you can have because you have comfort, comfort that took thousands of years to create) makes.



You wouldn't say that if you lived in CHina just 20 years ago when famines were still common ( I have a 30 something bartender in my town who is from China  and where he lived in the early 90's, he told me they used to squeeze plants to drink, you read me correct), the progress they made in about 4 decades is so massive it boggles the mind.

Literraly.

To be against its own people doesn't make sense on any level, even of the most basic ones such as evolutionary.

No life form destroys its sibblings on pure nihilism or whatever argument you can use in this case.

A dictatorship does not necessarily mean it's against the destruction of its own people. I would actually argue that dictatorships and authoritarians handled the Coronavirus more efficiently than Western democratic countries (aside from the ones in the East) - and you wanna know why? Because the West (and in particular the USA) are extremely fat, lazy, and spoiled when it comes to their rights and freedoms. They take it for granted every single day of their lives to the point where they have now been conditioned to believe that their countries are beacons of hope and democracy for the world when anyone with a merely adequate comprehension of world politics knows that quite a bit of the Western countries are not democracies - especially the US. I've said this point repeatedly. 

 

However, the political party in China prizes itself above all else. This is not a twist of facts...you could argue that it's basic human evolution that someone fights to keep their relevance. But if that were the case, then China would allow deep political and social reformations but they don't. Anyone crossing the line is subject to imprisonment, torture, or death. This is something you do not understand when you are living in France. The fact that you are able to discuss these ideas is a right and luxury your country has secured...billions of people around the world are unable to express basic concerns or to discuss reform without threat to themselves and their families. 

 

2 hours ago, The Futurist said:

 

Western People have no clue the level of suffering the chinese people endured just until recently on so many levels compared to the comfort of living in the west we were able to create for ourselves  since the 50's/60's and so on.



The country was not in synch with the west historically and yes, it is the chinese dictatorship that put around 800m people out of middle age poverty and put them in giant urban areas and made the country the second most powerful country economically.

Is it so wrong to think you belong to a group of people to achieve a common good  and be ready to make sacrifices for it ?

Sacrifices are always unjust and horrible, that s its nature.

That s how we used to think in the west until WWII.

But comfort makes people lazy and coward, sorry but that s the cold hard truth.

I don't pretend to be any different by the way.[/quote]

China's economic boom has been great, there's no doubt about that. But any regime wants to succeed economically and there was no way in hell they were going to be able to accomplish that without removing hundreds of millions from poverty. China doesn't win any points in my book for doing something they should have done decades earlier. 

 

Also, China? I'll give you two countries from the Middle East with by far the most dictatorship - Iran and Saudi Arabia - yet they still have access to Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Whatsapp, and YouTube. Chinese citizens can't even access those. It's a testament to how technically savvy they are that they're able to prevent the vast majority of the population from access but also shows how utterly terrified they are of their citizens developing their own ideas and asking for changes.

 

Many people in dictatorships are rich and comfortable...and don't want to think for themselves. 

2 hours ago, The Futurist said:

 

In France, we are so fucked we legalized euthanasia in nursing homes.

You read me correct, we re gonna kill our elders because we can't do anything for them.

No enough beds and respirators for them.

Living la vida loca you see.

 

You wanted to talk to me about morals, democracy vs dictatorship ?

 

Oh and let s hope China s numbers are somewhat correct, they are by far the biggest masks producers in the world.

And masks.

We wants them.

Badly.

Unless we start our own masks factories maybe but how long that would take ...

 

 

I can go on and on for pages and pages regarding varying morality between democracies and dictatorships. I also majored in political science so this is a topic I do genuinely enjoy discussing. :)

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The Futurist's rants are not a good source of information, in general but especially not in this thread.

6 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Looking at big ecomomies, obviously Australia, Japan, SoutKorea, Germany are handling this pretty well. China - well, you can see how the managed to contain the outbreak but I guess nobody would want to live in such a country.

I wouldn't put Germany in the group of countries who handled it "pretty well", the number of cases and deaths speak for itself: the pandemic isn't contained. Merkel has been about as bad as other European leaders, at one point she was open to the idea of letting ~70% of the population get infected. And I don't know if the end of the lockdown would be easier to manage there, they have the same problem as everyone else: how to prevent another major outbreak?

 

Germany may be the most competent of the big European countries but that is not a very high bar. It also isn't clear if the lower numbers are not mainly for geographical reasons, as the parts of Europe worst hit at first were west and south-west; East European countries have an even better record (for now at least).

 

And living in Chinese conditions doesn't so bad at the moment when it comes to pandemics measures, at least they are allowed to leave their houses.

Edited by MrGlass2
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17 hours ago, dudalb said:

I would not predict how strong the second wave will be.

And you had better hope not, since a second wave in the fall will destroy any chances for a second term for your Hero.

He's in like Flynn.

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9 minutes ago, Noctis said:

The Chinese numbers are barely a fraction of what's going on. If the virus reportedly originated around November, that means it must have infected millions. However, their response was effective.


I agree with everything else in your post. But I have to challenge this - peer-reviewed epidemiological models not reliant on the Chinese data (ie. using the prevalence found in travellers leaving China) have produced worst-case estimates of infections around ~200,000 (about twice the reported totals). The same methods had accurately estimated R0 by late January.

To make a long story short, we know that by late January there were only a few thousand cases. At that point, China introduced travel restrictions and shortly thereafter very draconian measures to keep people in their homes. It's simply not possible for the virus to sustain exponential growth in those circumstances - even assuming it took until mid February to end exponential growth, cases wouldn't have grown past roughly ~200,000. It's unthinkable for measures that strict (which all the evidence suggests were enforced) to not end exponential growth - ending exponential growth for this virus only requires a reduction in transmission of about 70% at most.

Without those measures, then yes, it would have infected millions by now.

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The irony of the pavlovian negative reaction towards China from westerners is that they have no idea, no clue how much China and its leaders admire America and the west at large and how everything they do is modeled after the west.

The means to get there are just different but it s the same endgame.

3 years ago, there was an official and very important ceremony for the Father of Modern China, Dr Sun Yat Sen, it was the 150th anniversary of its birth and guess what ?

This guy, travelled Europe at the end of the 19th century and couldn't believe what he saw.

He was in fact furious to see the difference between  where China was at and where Europe was at.

He was "ashamed" of China and when he came back to his native village, he destroyed the idols his fellow people still worshipped.

Europe was full on science, progress (the real ones), modern medicine ( he had his doctor degree in London) and technology and in the village of Dr Sun, people still worshipped idols in his native village, surviving on scraps.

Humans have more in common than we think.

 

 

 

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Here is a report of the situation in Guayaquil, the biggest city in Ecuador:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/03/americas/guayaquil-ecuador-overwhelmed-coronavirus-intl/index.html

"Bodies are being left on the streets in an overwhelmed ecuadorian city."

"The streets of Ecuador's western city of Guayaquil are deserted, with few residents in sight -- and a few dead, as bodies are being left in the streets of this overwhelmed place. The coronavirus pandemic is overloading the public services in the country's most populous city to a point of collapse. Hospitals have no beds left to accept sick patients, and morgues, cemeteries and funeral homes are straining. With no place left to put them, some residents say they have no choice but placing them outside."

"We have been waiting for five days," Fernando Espana said in a video obtained by Reuters on March 30, as he complained about the struggles to have authorities come pick up his family member. The smell is too much to take. "It's the odor from the body that one can no longer handle," Espana's neighbor, Glenda Larrea Vera says in the same video, from across the street and behind a mask. "And we also have neighbors that are elderly. I have my mother who is 80 who is also having respiratory problems."

Guayaquil's mayor Cynthia Viteri has desperately begged for help from the national government in a video posted to her Twitter account last week. "What is happening in the country's public health system? They are not taking away the dead from houses, they're leaving them on the sidewalks, they're falling in front of hospitals. No one wants to pick them up," she said.

 

The official number of deaths in Ecuador is 145, but the real number is exponentially higher and likely will never be known.

Edited by Marcus Cato
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On 3/31/2020 at 1:42 PM, Marcus Cato said:

Actually it was New York Gov. Cuomo that did that first. He accused people of stealing masks and other medical equipment from hospitals:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/people-are-stealing-face-masks-from-local-hospitals-gov-cuomo-says.html

 

And no, i'm not a Trump supporter, but i'm a supporter of facts and truth, Earlier Trump said that Seoul has 38 million people. Yep, he made a mistake there, he's not probably that good at world demographics.

You know, when i was growing up in totalitarian communist Romania, we were taught at school about how evil America is, and how bad americans are, and so many other nasty words. And i believed that, because there was nothing else to invalidate that. That's the power of suggestion without counterbalance. It took me a long time to realize that americans are not that bad actually.

 

Very well said. And now you have this happening in the US where people just want to hear what they want to hear without a counterbalance. It’s an echo chamber. If you only get quotes from the sources where your views align, then nothing can be done for you. You are lost in your echo chamber and don’t even realize the bias you are being fed, often clothed around ‘facts.’ 
 

Also, the anti-Trump sentiment is no surprise. All the world leaders knew that as this hard to contain virus spread to their borders, they would be blamed by their respective populace. Sure enough, that’s happening. It’s human nature. In the 1980s soon after Mexico City suffered through a 8.1 earthquake, tens of thousands starting marching through the street demanding answers. Ummm what? Yea....so what happened was an earthquake stronger than mankind could contain (even with the requisite building codes) devastated the city. Sure, the Mexican army could have done more to recover bodies but these catastrophic things happen. It shows the limits of man. Here in the US, I’m not saying the governors or the administration couldn’t have mitigated the spread, but ultimately there is a limit to what any state or federal government can do. Like an asteroid strike or supervolcano, you just gotta get through the suck. On a side note, when Trump said that you shouldn’t believe what came out of China early on re: the efficacy of this disease I chalked it up to his anti-Chinese rhetoric. Turns out from the intel report that we didn’t know how dangerous this strain was back then. It’s likely why even Dr. Fauci downplayed this disease back in January. 

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They have found a suspected case in the building next to ours. Couple hours ago loads of police came to the area. Then workers came and sprayed sanitizers all over the place. And now they have taken 8 people (with little bit of their belongings) in an ambulance to hospital. These people are presumably roommates of the suspected case. They are gonna test all of them and quarantine if found positive. They are also likely gonna seal the building with the people inside. Not sure if the suspected guy has already tested positive or not. They are also likely going to seal the road 
 

Its a small 2 story building with a mix of residential and small manufacturing units. These units usually have lots of poor daily wage workers crammed in small spaces and they live in the same place as well. 

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10 minutes ago, lilmac said:

Very well said. And now you have this happening in the US where people just want to hear what they want to hear without a counterbalance. It’s an echo chamber. If you only get quotes from the sources where your views align, then nothing can be done for you. You are lost in your echo chamber and don’t even realize the bias you are being fed, often clothed around ‘facts.’ 
 

Also, the anti-Trump sentiment is no surprise. All the world leaders knew that as this hard to contain virus spread to their borders, they would be blamed by their respective populace. Sure enough, that’s happening. It’s human nature. In the 1980s soon after Mexico City suffered through a 8.1 earthquake, tens of thousands starting marching through the street demanding answers. Ummm what? Yea....so what happened was an earthquake stronger than mankind could contain (even with the requisite building codes) devastated the city. Sure, the Mexican army could have done more to recover bodies but these catastrophic things happen. It shows the limits of man. Here in the US, I’m not saying the governors or the administration couldn’t have mitigated the spread, but ultimately there is a limit to what any state or federal government can do. Like an asteroid strike or supervolcano, you just gotta get through the suck. On a side note, when Trump said that you shouldn’t believe what came out of China early on re: the efficacy of this disease I chalked it up to his anti-Chinese rhetoric. Turns out from the intel report that we didn’t know how dangerous this strain was back then. It’s likely why even Dr. Fauci downplayed this disease back in January. 

We had no real data in January.

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The other thing I want to point out is that nobody could have

 

foreseen how Covid-19 was gonna behave.

 

Hindsight is always 20/20 and some of the biggest scientists in the world got it wrong too.

 

Plus, the effects of Covid create an enormous stress on any health care.

 

WHat I am trying to say is the scale and scope of Covid poses problems states don't/didn't have weapons for, or not enough.

 

It s very easy to point fingers and say "oh you should have done this and that "... "where is  my 1 Billion masks strategic reserve folks ?"

 

Forgive me for being a bigot too, I would if I could have closed borders with China and Asia in Mid-Late January 2020.

Whatever you say to this argument, it wouldn't have stopped Covid entirely from entering my country but I am pretty damn sure it would have scaled down the scope of the pandemic for the countries that made that choice.

Plus now countries have done it now so whatever  point you have about closing the borders early is moot.

People clearly see the point now.

Again, Covid Cells don't book airport tickets.

Infected Covid people do and bring Covid Cells to your friendly neighborhood.

Globalization, gotta love it.

 

When I learned China had closed all its cinemas and cancelled its new Years eve events, I knew deep in my guts something very wrong/unusual/tragic was occuring.

But I am a pessimist guy. 

Edited by The Futurist
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46 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

The Futurist's rants are not a good source of information, in general but especially not in this thread.

 

I wouldn't put Germany in the group of countries who handled it "pretty well", the number of cases and deaths speak for itself: the pandemic isn't contained. Merkel has been about as bad as other European leaders, at one point she was open to the idea of letting ~70% of the population get infected. And I don't know if the end of the lockdown would be easier to manage there, they have the same problem as everyone else: how to prevent another major outbreak?

 

Germany may be the most competent of the big European countries but that is not a very high bar. It also isn't clear if the lower numbers are not mainly for geographical reasons, as the parts of Europe worst hit at first were west and south-west; East European countries have an even better record (for now at least).

 

And living in Chinese conditions doesn't so bad at the moment when it comes to pandemics measures, at least they are allowed to leave their houses.

Merkels 70% thing was just about R0 getting <1 if 2/3 of the population got it and thus are (hopefully) immune. That is what scientists told her and not what she wanted for Germany. Without vaccination that's what happens over time.

 

Germany didn't do good in prevention. But I think since the outbreak really hit us the government did rather well, though I'm sure we're lucky not to be hit too hard.

 

And I really don't think living in chinese conditions would do anything better really. That's a big part of what led to this crisis - covering up things, silencing doctors and critics (and that isn't meant to be an excuse for the awful corona prevention policy). Not everythings perfect living in a european country but there shouldn't be a doubt that it's better living here than in a totalitarian country.

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47 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

The Futurist's rants are not a good source of information, in general but especially not in this thread.

 

I wouldn't put Germany in the group of countries who handled it "pretty well", the number of cases and deaths speak for itself: the pandemic isn't contained. Merkel has been about as bad as other European leaders, at one point she was open to the idea of letting ~70% of the population get infected. And I don't know if the end of the lockdown would be easier to manage there, they have the same problem as everyone else: how to prevent another major outbreak?

 

Germany may be the most competent of the big European countries but that is not a very high bar. It also isn't clear if the lower numbers are not mainly for geographical reasons, as the parts of Europe worst hit at first were west and south-west; East European countries have an even better record (for now at least).

 

And living in Chinese conditions doesn't so bad at the moment when it comes to pandemics measures, at least they are allowed to leave their houses.

Actually, Merkel has basically zero power on that matter. Health is a state-issue, the federal government can only hand out advise which the states may or may not follow at their own perril. Which is why some German states reacted rather quickly, while others sat on their hands. All orders about shutdowns of schools, businesses and so on come from state-governments. At some point the states did come to the conclusion that coordination among themselves might actually be quite useful though.

 

Eastern Europe might actually have been lucky in that there isn't nearly as much contact to the hotspots than in western Europe. Germans are big on travel to Italy and Spain, most of the cases originated from people getting infected in those places, with the odd case coming directly from China. Eastern Europe just doesn't have nearly as much tourism and general travel to those areas as the richer western nations do.

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Very difficult to interpret the numbers for each country.

So many variables and so many wrong/incomplete statistics/data.

 

Depending on the country you are someone with a serious heart condition with covid will not be counted as a covid death or vice versa etc

 

We compare statistics that are not even based on the same premises, concepts and assumptions etc

Testing vary so much from country to country etc.

It s big bordelo.

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Very difficult to interpret the numbers for each country.

So many variables and so many wrong/incomplete statistics/data.

 

Depending on the country you are someone with a serious heart condition with covid will not be counted as a covid death or vice versa etc

 

We compare statistics that are not even based on the same premises, concepts and assumptions etc

Testing vary so much from country to country etc.

It s big bordelo.

 

German numbers seem odd, the country has as many elders as the rest of the hardest hit european countries so I dunno ...

God is in the details and german statisticians could use tricks who knows ?

Edited by The Futurist
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19 minutes ago, Aristis said:

Merkels 70% thing was just about R0 getting <1 if 2/3 of the population got it and thus are (hopefully) immune. That is what scientists told her and not what she wanted for Germany. Without vaccination that's what happens over time.

She mentioned that it would probably happen and then didn't immediately shut down the entire country (or strongly suggested it to local authorities). It shows that she was taking into account other factors in this crisis, economical or political. Saving lives by containing the virus wasn't the #1 priority.

 

People have rightly mocked Boris Johnson and his "herd immunity strategy", but it seems it was implicitly the mainstream European strategy after containment failed, for a couple of weeks at least - before the death toll exploded in Italy then Spain.

 

19 minutes ago, Aristis said:

And I really don't think living in chinese conditions would do anything better really. That's a big part of what led to this crisis - covering up things, silencing doctors and critics (and that isn't meant to be an excuse for the awful corona prevention policy). Not everythings perfect living in a european country but there shouldn't be a doubt that it's better living here than in a totalitarian country.

But the pandemic condition is to lock everyone in their homes, it isn't a great time to celebrate the great European freedoms.

Competent doctors and critics were also been "silenced"/ignored in European media, the stock market was more important than saving lives - and perhaps still is. It doesn't get worse* than the current situation given the wealth of these countries, or what has been achieved elsewhere. It is a systemic failure of historic proportions.

 

(* unless Trump is involved of course)

Edited by MrGlass2
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