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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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21 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Ahm, they can not fully quarantine all at risk people and more for roughly 2 years. Theoretical time needed for full approval vaccines

 

Iceland will try to test almost everybody (literally), if you achieve that in a short enough windows, quarantined all the known case and the people in close contact with them and you should achieve an R0 significantly under 1 (quite under 1) and have it goes away, then you need to test everyone that enter and quarantine those you cannot achieve too if you do not have enough test, for a small island without a big tourist industry, that sound possible.

 

Quote

Containment tries were not succesful, as the pandemic experts did not count for a change in the ~ distribution, nor for a such big of multiple spreaders at once. E.g. the soccer match? I think someone said 45000 people there alone.

A country is not trying to contain a virus like Covid if something like a soccer game occur.

Edited by Barnack
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8 hours ago, stephanos13 said:

23000 new cases in France yesterday. WTH?

 

An error or they added previously unreported cases just like they did with deaths?

They added non-hospital "suspected cases" (not enough tests I guess) in nursing homes. The numbers in France look horrific the last few days but they are caused by this backlog, it actually looks like they may be close or at the peak, following a few days after Italy.

 

Not sure if other countries also count non-hospital deaths, their number is underestimated in general.

 

France also released overall mortality statistics for March 2020, they are between March 2018 and March 2019. For reasons already discussed, coronavirus deaths might be difficult to measure by country mortality rates, there are many other factors playing a role - most of all a lockdown. It may be possible to adjust the data (non-violent deaths, age, regions...) and I expect many researchers to try.

 

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2 minutes ago, a2k said:

India, new cases last 10 days:

393+ (Sat) - today

563

486

424

288

208

110 (Sun)

143 (Sat)

151

78

I am not sure how many test they run, but those numbers look ridiculously low (enough to be worthless).

 

 

The estimate seem to be around 

Latest estimate: 19 per million people; 26,798 in total (as of 27 March 2020).

Latest estimate: 50 per million people; 69,245 in total (as of 03 April 2020).

 

I.e. they tested virtually no one in India.

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9 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Florida 11200 cases as of 10am. 

Only 102k tests this far. Florida needs at least 1 million tests

Beginning of March it was faaaar less: 

That is how many tests since last or this week were done in Germany per day. They are working on increasing that 

 

I think I read SK does something under 400000 per day, they have something under 52 million population or so, we have 83 million, Florida ~ 21.5 million.

 

 

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This is a time where I wish the virtual reality worlds portrayed by Snow Crash and Ready Player One were a reality today. We're still at least several years away. 16K resolution will allow for the eye to perceive images with 4K acuity at the close ranges of VR.

8K is still 2 yrs from going mainstream and 16K probably 5 yrs after that.

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16 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Iceland will try to test almost everybody (literally), if you achieve that in a short enough windows, quarantined all the known case and the people in close contact with them and you should achieve an R0 significantly under 1.

 

A country is not trying to contain a virus like Covid if something like a soccer game occur.

Islanders neither going skiing into neighboring countries nor have similar work-place traditions as a lot of the other countries.

 

Soccer game: at that time not, plus it was 2 countries, as it was an International game (took place 19 February). What I meant is, some looked too focused to China / business contacts, certain regions, didn’t expect to have to look into their own non China connected places too.

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6 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Beginning of March it was faaaar less: 

That is how many tests since last or this week were done in Germany per day. They are working on increasing that 

 

I think I read SK does something under 400000 per day, they have something under 52 million population or so, we have 83 million, Florida ~ 21.5 million.

 

 

No, SK did about 450k tests overall

 

the  number of test, by the way, is now included in worldometer numbers (total# and # per capita):

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

Austria did more per capita testing than Germany and both more than SouthKorea.

 

and on a positive note for all you in the UK and US: numbers may seem shocking now but LOCKDOWN IS WORKING and you will see the n umbers go down eventually. Today in Austria, after nearly 3 weeks of lockdown, we're at <5% increase in cases and even stable in active cases (means, new cases are balanced by recovered cases)

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1 minute ago, IndustriousAngel said:

No, SK did about 450k tests overall

 

the  number of test, by the way, is now included in worldometer numbers (total# and # per capita):

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

Austria did more per capita testing than Germany and both more than SouthKorea.

 

and on a positive note for all you in the UK and US: numbers may seem shocking now but LOCKDOWN IS WORKING and you will see the n umbers go down eventually. Today in Austria, after nearly 3 weeks of lockdown, we're at <5% increase in cases and even stable in active cases (means, new cases are balanced by recovered cases)

 

 

That means the SWR wrote %&$#, found it fast:

Quote

Virologen streben eine möglichst hohe Zahl an Tests an, um den Verlauf der Infektionen besser einschätzen zu können. Andere Länder haben noch höhere Kapazitäten. In Südkorea werden täglich 400.000 Menschen getestet.

means

in Sk 400000 people get daily tested / tested per day.

 

Thanks, I guess I have to add that link too to my favorites, fast search gets too many bad results

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43 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Florida 11200 cases as of 10am. 

Only 102k tests this far. Florida needs at least 1 million tests

 

California has 12k600 cases with only (around) 41k tests (and 59k pending tests), and nobody says anything about California and they always say that Florida is going to be worse ....

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4 hours ago, lilmac said:

8K is still 2 yrs from going mainstream and 16K probably 5 yrs after that.

Because when you use VR, you need 2 independant screen, push everything about it quite a bit versus a regular 2D screen timeline wise, you need in some way twice the power (and you need faster FPS than what people playing on a tv to be comfortable).

 

I doubt 8K is just 2 yrs from going mainstream, and a big mistake if it happen (it is nice for sellers to have easy impressive numbers to push sales but for consumer, the sacrifice to everything else that happen that is made for a resolution you cannot appreciated without sitting near a 100 inch screen is really not worth it).

 

4K is still borderline in term of mainstream:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/internet/netflix-and-youtube-reduce-resolution-as-virus-hits-web/articleshow/74731063.cms?from=mdr

 

https://techraptor.net/gaming/news/4k-gaming-still-in-minority-according-to-steam

Here is a selection of the resolutions players are using:

1024 x 768: 0.47% (-0.05%)

1280 x 1024: 1.64% (-0.01%)

1920 x 1080: 64.58% (+1.11%)

2560 x 1440: 4.95% (-0.06%)

3840 x 2160: 1.74% (-0.04%)

 

I would imagine that still a lot of what the industry call 4K is upscaled to it, it require a ridiculous amount of horsepower, a bit like actual large volume of realtime raytracing is not soon to be something mainstream.

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Marcos12 said:

California has 12k600 cases with only (around) 41k tests (and 59k pending tests), and nobody says anything about California and they always say that Florida is going to be worse ....

That number in this (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/e/2PACX-1vRwAqp96T9sYYq2-i7Tj0pvTf6XVHjDSMIKBdZHXiCGGdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml#) must be a mistake ?

 

An average Canadian province of 4-8 million people can easily have the double of that test numbers run by now, the 40 millions California only 41k ?

 

 

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7 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

the  number of test, by the way, is now included in worldometer numbers (total# and # per capita):

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

Aehm, I think there might be some backlog thing here acc to the link’s chart Germany had yesterday 483295 tests, and today 918460 tests.

So many per day are not possible here, at least not yet 😉

 

If it is a new addition, maybe waiting a few days to see if there are still jumps in a country or more to be more sure about the numbers?

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22 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

They added non-hospital "suspected cases" (not enough tests I guess) in nursing homes. The numbers in France look horrific the last few days but they are caused by this backlog, it actually looks like they may be close or at the peak, following a few days after Italy.

 

Not sure if other countries also count non-hospital deaths, their number is underestimated in general.

Can't source it right now, but I've seen several articles talking about the undercount happening in real time.

 

And it makes sense.  It takes time to test for coronavirus. It takes resources to process tests.  There are stories about how some tests are taking over 10 days to process.  California is still working through a backlog of testing being done by the private sector.

 

The thing is, none of this is exactly new or unexpected.  It's one of the reasons why an "official" death count for a seasonal flu or other diseases has to be an approximation.  We just can't know with precision how many people are actually dead because of COVID-19.  What we can do is try to compare it to is suspected undercounts in other outbreaks.  Especially after there is time to "catch up" logistically.

 

Of course none of this gets into intentional undercounting or outright lying.  

 

Anyway, the 'actual' death count is almost certainly higher than what's being reported right now.  How much of the undercount is caught in the fullness of time, I have no idea.

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30 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

, there are many other factors playing a role - most of all a lockdown. It may be possible to adjust the data (non-violent deaths, age, regions...) and I expect many researchers to try.

 

A certain part should be possible fast, see traffic accidents, workplace accidents and such should be accessible rather simple, as for those they release either directly the numbers already regular see traffic, or have good data as all work-related accidents get fairly good externally managed (Berufsgenossenschaft) - here at least.

I also think a lot of the sportive accidents have good statistics, especially all of those where specialised rescuer are typical (water, mountains,...)

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8 minutes ago, Marcos12 said:

California has 12k600 cases with only (around) 41k tests (and 59k pending tests), and nobody says anything about California and they always say that Florida is going to be worse ....

California hospitalization and death growth rate don’t look so bad, and are unaffected by their testing fiasco. Also led Florida in mitigation measures by about two weeks. However, I agree with the main point that California testing is mind boggling lagging and so we have a really incomplete picture of what’s going on there.

4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

That number in this (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/e/2PACX-1vRwAqp96T9sYYq2-i7Tj0pvTf6XVHjDSMIKBdZHXiCGGdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml#) must be a mistake ?

 

An average Canadian province of 4-8 million people can easily have the double of that test numbers run by now, the 40 millions California only 41k ?

 

 

Seems to true. Really embarrassing, yes.

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15 minutes ago, Marcos12 said:

California has 12k600 cases with only (around) 41k tests (and 59k pending tests), and nobody says anything about California and they always say that Florida is going to be worse ....

Plenty of people say things about the lack of testing on a per capita basis in California. It's the one single area where we have dropped the ball.

 

But the reason why many folks think Florida will be much much worse is that California shut down far earlier than Florida did.  Preventative measures have had two weeks or more longer to do their thing.

 

We are flying blind to some degree, but at least we have our seat belts fastened and are in crash position.  That makes a difference. A big big difference.

Edited by Porthos
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17 minutes ago, Barnack said:

That number in this (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/e/2PACX-1vRwAqp96T9sYYq2-i7Tj0pvTf6XVHjDSMIKBdZHXiCGGdNC0ypEU9NbngS8mxea55JuCFuua1MUeOj5/pubhtml#) must be a mistake ?

 

An average Canadian province of 4-8 million people can easily have the double of that test numbers run by now, the 40 millions California only 41k ?

 

 

I saw it on the covidtracking website, and the numbers are.

 


Positive = 10.701

Negative= 24,599

 

Total test results= 35,300

Pending= 59,500

 

10k700 positive with only 35k tests results  (numbers updated yesterday, according to the website),, this is quite high and much higher than Florida rate (almost the same number of positives as Florida with 1/3 of the number of tests), I don't think it's a mistake, 

 

Edited by Marcos12
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