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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Anyway, the 'actual' death count is almost certainly higher than what's being reported right now.  How much of the undercount is caught in the fullness of time, I have no idea.

Some already want to exclude the case where the virus ‘only’ sped up the death of someone already in a rather bad condition.

Personally I think if an virus added is the reason someone is dying early, I do not care for the splitting hairs. Maaaaybe if its only shortening the live for a week or whatever, very ‘dangerous’ ground, do not even want to think about that.

 

Governments who might get under a strong criticism for being too late, too less... might want to try to pick the best looking numbers 

 

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3 hours ago, Noctis said:

@The Futurist Also...Donald Trump...the guy you refuse to criticize...is the literal definition of a spoiled and lazy brat. I don't know how you can't see that.

To be honest,  Trump hysteria completely fascinates me.

The day he was elected, the world got mad.

And it never stopped since.

I know for a fact he eats babies and loves beeing pissed on by russian prostitutes.

CNN told me that.

Oh, and of course, Trump is a Russian asset controlled by Vlad the Empaler, Owner of Gazprom.

I got that from the New-York Times.

And yes, he grabs them.

Stolen private conversations told me that.

 

But I maintain what I always said :

 

Trump is not and was never the disease, he is merely a symptom.

But it is comforting and soothing for leftist simpletons to think otherwise.

Good luck with that.

 

The way leftists have been obsessing about him is pure lunacy.

And if these cowards leftists were being honest, they would declare war on its voters, a real war  I mean, with weapons and deaths, like the old times when you disagreed on ideologies/things.

Because the level of insults/patronizing attitudes/violence Trump voters have been eating for the last 3 years should be enough to have a new Civil War in America.

Luckily, we have oil and full bellies but in the long run, be careful for what you wish for.

If leftists hatred for Trump voters runs that deep, they should be ready for what s coming because they won't disapear when Trump is out of the equation.

People have memories.

Even rednecks.

Schocking I know.

 

Oh and the way leftists weaponized IP is shameful.

But that s another debate entirely and a can of worms I won't open.

 

 

In the past when ressources where more scarce, wars were declared for way less than the vile hatred I see in American politics/society.

 

Hold on to your butts, the bubble will burst, eventually.

It always does.

"History is Tragic."

 

And of course, I love the irony that leftists believe in

 

righteous hatred.

 

There s a reason I call them the New Puritains.

Trump was the truth serum of western societies.

We know who are the tyrants now.

The people who made Woodstock.

Peace and Love they said.

But they were on acid.

Sober & in control of economic and media powers, they became what we are seing now.

A terrifying and hilarious parody of the intolerant people they used to fight against in the 50's, 60's, 70's & before.

 

Edited by The Futurist
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10 minutes ago, Marcos12 said:

 

I saw it on the covidtracking website, and the numbers are.

 


Positive = 10.701

Negative= 24,599

 

Total test results= 35,300

Pending= 59,500

 

10k700 positive with only 35k tests results  (numbers updated yesterday, according to the website),, this is quite high and much higher than Florida rate (almost the same number of positives as Florida with 1/3 of the number of tests), I don't think it's a mistake, they say they updated this information yesterday.

 

Here it says 10,701 cases with 94,800 tests, so it could be an error on the other site, Or they’re including the pending tests in these 94k800 tests....

https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19PublicDashboard/Covid-19Public?:embed=y&:display_count=no&:showVizHome=no

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4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Plenty of people say things about the lack of testing on a per capita basis in California. It's the one single area where we have dropped the ball.

 

But the reason why many folks think Florida will be much much worse is that California shut down far earlier than Florida did.  Preventative measures have had two weeks or more longer to do their thing.

 

We are flying blind to some degree, but at least we have our seat belts fastened and are in crash position.  That makes a difference. A big big difference.

I can say that majority of adults are extremely careful about social distancing. I go to Costco once a week, most adults wear some kind of mask and maintain distance. Only few folks who seem to be in a hurry seem to forget. Plus most stores allow only few folks at a time to avoid crowding. Most public parks also maintain distancing. 

 

That said its not a substitute for testing, contact tracing and isolating positive cases. I just dont understand why Newsom does not make that a priority. There are so many biotech's based on CA who have the infrastructure. I guess they are worried the real number will be so scary that they want to bury their head in the sand than finding out the facts 😞

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15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I can say that majority of adults are extremely careful about social distancing. I go to Costco once a week, most adults wear some kind of mask and maintain distance. Only few folks who seem to be in a hurry seem to forget. Plus most stores allow only few folks at a time to avoid crowding. Most public parks also maintain distancing. 

 

That said its not a substitute for testing, contact tracing and isolating positive cases. I just dont understand why Newsom does not make that a priority. There are so many biotech's based on CA who have the infrastructure. I guess they are worried the real number will be so scary that they want to bury their head in the sand than finding out the facts 😞

The private sector is still processing:

 

Quote

The major reason for the backlog has been a massive bottleneck at Quest Diagnostics, a large commercial lab that launched coronavirus testing at a facility in San Juan Capistrano, near Los Angeles. On Thursday the company reported a backlog of 115,000 tests, though it declined to say how many of the samples awaiting processing were from California.

 

When coronavirus first began spreading through the country, large commercial labs like Quest and Labcorp were the only ones with the infrastructure to quickly gain federal approval for their tests, and soon hospitals in California were being encouraged by these companies and by the government to send their samples to San Juan Capistrano for processing.

 

Meanwhile, academic medical centers were scrambling to get approval to do their tests in-house, said Attul Butte, who leads the Institute for Computational Health Sciences at the University of California, San Francisco. “Now, our own internal tests are faster,” Butte said. “But it took us a while to get those up and running.”

In the meantime Quest was flooded, and quickly overwhelmed. Initially, the commercial lab gained approval for a bespoke test that needed to be manually processed by lab technicians, which the company said in a statement to the Guardian is “less suited” to a situation where tens of thousands of tests need to be processed each day. Quest said it has now started processing tests at 12 laboratories across the country, some of which are now using to an automated system developed by the Swiss diagnostic company Roche.

 

“But once you get behind, it’s very hard to catch up,” said Jennifer Doudna, a researcher at the University of California, Berkeley, who has transformed her 2,500-sq-ft scientific laboratory into a pop-up lab Covid-19 testing center. Doudna and her team are using robotics to process at least 1,000 samples a day, collected at the university’s student health center and other nearby hospitals and clinics, to deliver test results within 24 hours.

 

“We hope that having pop-up labs like ours will really help bring down the backlog,” she said. “So we can help people quickly understand when they may have an infection.”

 

Having more academic labs and state and county health labs process tests also allows health centers to send their samples somewhere local, rather than mailing them across the state – or even farther for processing.

 

At the Contra Costa county medical center, the physician Madhvi Shah said she’s relieved that the wait time for test results has somewhat reduced in the past week. “Initially, they were taking almost 10 days or up to two weeks,” she said. “People would be getting their negatives or positives way after they’d waited out their quarantine period.”

 

Unlike some other hospitals and health centers in California, the Contra Costa health service has access to a number of rapid-result tests, which the county’s lab can process within 24 hours. The tests are reserved for patients in high-risk groups including those who are on dialysis, or are undergoing chemotherapy, as well as for healthcare workers who need to know quickly if they may have passed an infection on to patients.

 

Over the past week, the standard tests that Contra Costa sends for processing at Quest are being processed within five to seven days, Shah said. “It’s not necessarily the worst thing,” she said. But especially with so many patients sheltering at home, often with family members to whom they worry they’ll pass the disease, “I do wish we could give them results faster.”

 

It’s not only patients that are anxious to know the results of coronavirus tests – epidemiologists and infectious disease experts have warned that while California’s early and restrictive shelter-in-place mandates appear to have slowed a surge of illness that could overwhelm hospitals, delays and backlogs in testing have limited their ability to track the virus’ spread.

 

“As this pandemic goes through its course,” said Butte at Stanford, “We’re going to need more numbers.”

 

It's not that Newsom wants underreported numbers.  It's that it's a clusterfuck of competing resources.

 

This is one of the reasons why having a coordinated federal response is so important.  They're able to use the power of the federal government to direct and streamline things.  State governments don't necessarily nearly have those powers or resources, even ones like California.

 

Anyway, once the backlog starts it takes time to get out from under it.  

 

tl;dr:  Just because a governor wants something to be a priority, doesn't necessarily mean it will become one.

Edited by Porthos
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according to Covid tracking website, Florida's numbers are.

 

Tests Hospitalized In ICU On Ventilator  
Positive Negative Pending Currently Cumulative Currently Cumulative Currently Cumulative Recovered Deaths Total test results(Positive + Negative)
10,268 84,144 1,388 N/A 1,409 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 170 94,412

 

Positives= 10k268 

Negatives = 84k144

Total test results= 94k412 (only 1,388 pending)

 

It looks much better than California, if the site is correct.

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38 minutes ago, Marcos12 said:

California has 12k600 cases with only (around) 41k tests (and 59k pending tests), and nobody says anything about California and they always say that Florida is going to be worse ....

California was praised for declaring the first statewide lockdown in the US. And the governor of Florida has been especially awful in this crisis; mayors had to take the lead.

 

Yet according to Google numbers, both states have gone through the same level of "shutdown" as measured by movement near shops or workplaces. It will be interesting to see if the perception of the response matches the reality (assuming the test situation gets better and we can even know).

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39 minutes ago, Marcos12 said:

California has 12k600 cases with only (around) 41k tests (and 59k pending tests), and nobody says anything about California and they always say that Florida is going to be worse ....

California probably has 50000 cases but the curve has already flattened there. Florida is screwed hard.

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2 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

The point is that the response in Europe has been absolutely dreadful, this isn't about how much you love freedom or hate communism. There is nothing about democracy or human rights that prevented competence in this crisis, especially for rich countries. If the obvious superiority of the Chinese response bothers you so much, then look at South Korea (who had to deal with a significant outbreak and share a border with China), Taiwan or New Zealand.

The point is though that measueres like this haven't been taken since at least WW2. Europe isn't like China were you can do things like that out of a sudden. Those measures would have been unthinkable a few weeks ago. People slowly learned how bad of a threat this crisis is and that these things have to be done. Of course that is an disadvantage compared to a totalitarian dictatorship where people accept things. So ultimately it is about the european love of freedom.

 

You assume too much in your comment. I don't hate communism (even though sadly I don't think it works). I just don't like the chinese system. The thing is, we will never know how big this obvious superiority of chinese response really was... And, as I said, things are easy if you can do anything. But as you seem to be a fan of the chinese system this discussion is probably useless.

 

I never said Germany our Europe (which is hard to see as one) had a great response, especially in prevention. And I said that Germany should have acted more like South Korea. But even if that country is a democracy it's not really comparable to Europe (there have been many discussions about differences between western and eastern people here).

 

Europe could and should have done better but people just didn't realize soon enough how bad this is. Next time hopefully it'll be better.

2 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

If 70% of people get infected then the vulnerable won't be saved.

If the curve is flattened and the health care system won't be overwhelmed more of the vulnerable will be saved than if nothing happened. And as I said, it would have been better to stop the outbreak rather than to slow it. But they probably where too late for this and therefore we must live with flatten the curve.

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As I think about it, the overwhelming of the couple of places statewide that already had federal approval might have been because CA tried to get ahead of the testing curve.

 

And in doing so, flooded the system locally causing the backlog that we are trying to get out from under of with other testing resources.  Ironic, if so.

 

Or not.  But just goes to show how difficult it is to get out of the snowball effect once it starts getting rolling.

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8 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

California probably has 50000 cases but the curve has already flattened there. Florida is screwed hard.

How will we know if this is true? they  had very few tests results so far,  and  60k tests pending (apparently).

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11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

The private sector is still processing:

 

 

It's not that Newsom wants underreported numbers.  It's that it's a clusterfuck of competing resources.

 

This is one of the reasons why having a coordinated federal response is so important.  They're able to use the power of the federal government to direct and streamline things.  State governments don't necessarily nearly have those powers or resources, even ones like California.

 

tl;dr:  Just because a governor wants something to be a priority, doesn't necessarily mean it will become one.

I would blame trump if California was on par with other states. but the numbers are way below other states. Why cant Newsom work with all the start ups/tech companies to ramp up testing. Several weeks ago Verily(google company) have started testing in few counties. They have the resources to scale it across the state. its just matter of Prioritization from the local government. Its time to stop depending on Trump and tackle this head on. 

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3 minutes ago, Marcos12 said:

How will we know if this is true? they  had very few tests results so far,  and  60k tests pending (apparently).

Well for one thing our hospitals aren't being overwhelmed yet.  Emphasis on yet.

 

*knocks on wood*

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2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I would blame trump if California was on par with other states. but the numbers are way below other states. Why cant Newsom work with all the start ups/tech companies to ramp up testing. Several weeks ago Verily(google company) have started testing in few counties. They have the resources to scale it across the state. its just matter of Prioritization from the local government. Its time to stop depending on Trump and tackle this head on. 

The rest of the article did talk about other companies getting up and running.  But getting out from under the snowball ain't easy.

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9 minutes ago, Aristis said:

 

You assume too much in your comment. I don't hate communism (even though sadly I don't think it works). I just don't like the chinese system. The thing is, we will never know how big this obvious superiority of chinese response really was... And, as I said, things are easy if you can do anything. But as you seem to be a fan of the chinese system this discussion is probably useless.

I am not a fan, but you must admit that their response to this outbreak (in their own country no less) has been vastly superior to the one in Europe. Mentioning the beautiful freedoms of European people "not accepting things" (except a complete lockdown I guess) is a non sequitur, it has nothing to do with the criminal incompetence of their leaders.

 

And you can't dismiss South Korea either because it is somehow not "comparable" (?). Biology and medicine guided their actions, they are the same everywhere. There is a very easy comparison to make, it is another country where the response has been much better.

 

6 minutes ago, Aristis said:

If the curve is flattened and the health care system won't be overwhelmed more of the vulnerable will be saved than if nothing happened. And as I said, it would have been better to stop the outbreak rather than to slow it. But they probably where too late for this and therefore we must live with flatten the curve.

No we must not. The instant popularity of the concept in the case of the coronavirus is very suspect, and probably linked (again) to the desire to restart the economy and save the stock market rather than human lives. The priority must be to save as many lives as possible, Merely "flattening the curve" still means that ~1% of the population will die, just over many months.

 

Maybe a vaccine will be found sooner than expected, maybe the wide use of masks will help, maybe a treatment will be available in a few months... Either way, it is a novel virus and it is way too early to just give up and decide to let 70% of the entire population get infected. A lockdown or semi-lockdown should remain for much longer than the minimum required to "flatten the curve".

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24 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Well for one thing our hospitals aren't being overwhelmed yet.  Emphasis on yet.

 

*knocks on wood*

Well, that just says it's not on the NY level, but doesn't  say that it's better than Florida, or are hospitals in Florida overwhelmed?

My comparison is between California and Florida, and I see many people talking only about Florida,  the test results have shown so far the situation seems to be worse in California, the % of test results/to positive cases is much higher in California (if the sites are correct about this informations).

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11 minutes ago, Marcos12 said:

Well, that just says it's not on the NY level, but doesn't  say that it's better than Florida, or are hospitals in Florida overwhelmed?

My comparison is between California and Florida, and I see many people talking only about Florida,  the test results have shown so far the situation seems to be worse in California, the % of test results/to positive cases is much higher in California (if the sites are correct about this informations).

Cases arrived in California before they arrived in Florida, so it stands to reason we're on a different point of the curve than Florida is.  We're literally at a different point in the pandemic than Florida is.

 

As it stands as of April 1 according to the admittedly optimistic UW model:

 

FL:

Quote
Total deaths
6,897COVID-19 deaths
projected by August 4, 2020

 

CA:

Quote
Total deaths
5,068COVID-19 deaths
projected by August 4, 2020

 

And that's with a far larger population in Cali (39.6m) than Florida (21.3m)

 

That's one reason.  We'll see what happens as more testing gets done in both states as well as the effects of both government policy and social distancing done by the populace on its own, as MrGlass2 noted.

Edited by Porthos
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7 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

I am not a fan, but you must admit that their response to this outbreak (in their own country no less) has been vastly superior to the one in Europe. Mentioning the beautiful freedoms of European people "not accepting things" (except a complete lockdown I guess) is a non sequitur, it has nothing to do with the criminal incompetence of their leaders.

 

And you can't dismiss South Korea either because it is somehow not "comparable" (?). Biology and medicine guided their actions, they are the same everywhere. There is a very easy comparison to make, it is another country where the response has been much better.

China did better, cause they have more options as the whole systems and peoples rights are different. Still, would they have been more open about the issue and wouldn't people be afraid to have bad news for higher authorities, things might be different - though western countries may still be hit hard...

 

People would not have accepted full lockdowns a month ago.

 

And I'll say it for the third time: It would have been great to have had a response more like SK, but I don't know if that would have been possible. There would have been the need of testing and some shut downs very early on - which people here maybe would not have accepted. SK is different from Europe even though they are a democracy too. They are eastern which means less individualism (sometimes not that bad) and had an outbreak not that long ago...

 

... Germany acted awfully when it comes to prevention which is why acting like SK became impossible. All that I want say is that when the outbreak occurred they finally didn't do that bad and there actions were guided by science too.

7 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

No we must not. The instant popularity of the concept in the case of the coronavirus is very suspect, and probably linked (again) to the desire to restart the economy and save the stock market rather than human lives. The priority must be to save as many lives as possible, Merely "flattening the curve" still means that ~1% of the population will die, just over many months.

 

Maybe a vaccine will be found sooner than expected, maybe the wide use of masks will help, maybe a treatment will be available in a few months... Either way, it is a novel virus and it is way too early to just give up and decide to let 70% of the entire population get infected. A lockdown or semi-lockdown should remain for much longer than the minimum required to "flatten the curve".

As I said: The failure in prevention made it impossible to act like SK. They had small clusters whereas in Germany and Europe it's already spread. I think flattening the curve is the only possibility now.

 

And for the economy it would have been much better to have a SK response. They still have shops open. Flattening the curve is probably the worst you can do for your economy as it means a long shut down or at least closure of unesential business. As soon as you reopen big, the curve won't be flattened.

 

So, to sum up: Suppression would have been the best way. I think that would have required better prevention though. Most leaders failed at that, not taking the virus seriously just soon enough, so maybe we just have to live with flattening the curve (which probably kills less than 1% of the population given the death rate with good health care, but is still more than would haven been necessary).

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1 hour ago, Porthos said:

The private sector is still processing:

 

 

It's not that Newsom wants underreported numbers.  It's that it's a clusterfuck of competing resources.

 

This is one of the reasons why having a coordinated federal response is so important.  They're able to use the power of the federal government to direct and streamline things.  State governments don't necessarily nearly have those powers or resources, even ones like California.

 

Anyway, once the backlog starts it takes time to get out from under it.  

 

tl;dr:  Just because a governor wants something to be a priority, doesn't necessarily mean it will become one.

 

I feel like the backlog of 115 tests is worth bolding too. That is a lot.

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