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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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23 hours ago, peludo said:

Spain - Monday

135,032 positive cases (+4,273 relative to Sunday) +3.27%

13,055 deaths (+637) +5.13%

40,437 healed (+2,357) +6.19%

81,540 active cases (+1,279) +1.59%

 

A bit muted numbers, probably because during weekends numbers are underreported as I said yesterday. Tomorrow, we will probably have some rises, but the trend continues being good.

 

Last Monday we had 6,400 new positive cases against today's 4,200. It is a 33% lower.

 

Lowest daily death number since March 25th

 

Daily new active cases keep dropping. Barely over 1,000 increase.

 

Healed people already over 40,000.

Spain - Tuesday

140,510 positive cases (+5,478 relative to Monday) +4.06%

13,798 deaths (+743) +5.69%

43,208 healed (+2,771) +6.85%

83,504 active cases (+1,964) +2.41%

 

As happened previous weeks, we have a rise in all numbers on Tuesday. Tomorrow we should see some drops. To put into perspective, last Tuesday we had:

+9,222 new positive cases

+849 deaths

+2,479 healed

+5,894 active cases

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Who had Peter Navarro as the voice of reason and common sense on their bingo card?

 

 

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Falling like flies, there won't be much of a government left at this rate.

Edited by AndyK
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3 hours ago, terrestrial said:

 

Is that frustration speaking or is that seriously meant - assuming you mean counting for the US?

I was California, it was a long time ago mind, and a local queried my accent and when I said England, he looked puzzled and asked "is that east coast?".

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10 hours ago, AndyLL said:

The average person doesn't even know where China is.

 

The biggest drop in GPD (35% predicted by Dimon), double digit unemployment and millions of medical bankruptcies will be the "election tactics: people will be worrying about.

 

 

 

Just because you are mod you does not  mean you have an open license to say stupid nonsense that is not true.

 

Then delete post that counter you narrative.

 

Like there are a lot of low information voters, but that is reaching a bit lol 

 

Edited by Lordmandeep
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https://www.sueddeutsche.de/gesundheit/coronavirus-junge-menschen-gefahr-1.4863155

"Während in Deutschland bislang mehr als neun Prozent der über 80-Jährigen, bei denen das neue Coronavirus nachgewiesen wurde, gestorben sind, waren es unter den 60- bis 69-Jährigen nur gut zwei Prozent. Von den unter 30-jährigen positiv Getesteten mussten dagegen 98,8 Prozent nicht ins Krankenhaus, die allermeisten Jungen und Gesunden spüren nicht einmal etwas davon, wenn sie sich anstecken. Intensivstation, Todesgefahr, das Risiko dafür ist in dieser Altersgruppe so gering, dass es mit 0,03 Prozent statistisch kaum valide zu erfassen ist. Erst in der Gruppe der 30- bis 39-Jährigen steigt das Letalitätsrisiko in den Promillebereich."

 

ENG: "While more than 9% of the over-80 year-old have died in Germany, only 2% of those aged 60-69 have died from it. For under 30-year olds who have tested positiv for Covid, 98.8% didn't need hospitalization, and most of them didn't even know they were infected. The risk of getting admitted to the ICU or dying is so little for this age group, that we can hardly consider it to be statistically valid (0.03%). The lethality-risk gets more noticeable in 30-39 year-olds (0.1%)."

 

This data shows that Germany does A LOT more testing than Italy, Spain or UK, and that the IFR (infection-fatality-rate) is much smaller than the CFR (case-fatality-rate).

 

Current CFR in Italy vs Germany:

over 80 year-olds: 30% vs 9%

60-69: 8.4% vs 2%

30-39: 0.4% vs 0.1%

20-29: 0.1% vs 0.03%

 

Also, data from both the US and Spain have shown that around 12-18% of people under the age of 30 need hospitalization. In Germany, only 1.2% have needed it, once again proving the same thing.

 

I believe there might be at least 20x more COVID-19 cases worldwide than the official numbers seem to suggest.

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10 minutes ago, Andreas said:

I believe there might be at least 20x more COVID-19 cases worldwide than the official numbers seem to suggest.

yep, data seem to indicate a "real" mortality rate of about 0,5% or lower. Meaning, if you have 100 Covid19 deaths today, there were about 20.000 "real" cases about 14 days back. If you don't test outside hospitals like Sweden, you have no cases, but still deaths.

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4 hours ago, AndyK said:

I had a bug before Xmas with all the symptoms, the not being able to breath was what got me, never had that before.

 

Also I literally was falling off chairs with the fatigue.

 

I know its highly unlikely/impossible because of the timing, but there's always that nagging doubt.

 

I wish the antibody tests were available.

 

Yeah...I do, too...I had a late Feb virus that did give me shortness of breath one day...and I've never had that symptom in a virus in my life...my fam also all got sick within 24 hours of each other (thus, wildly contagious), with just 2 having symptoms for one week...most of us kicked it rapidly, but we were taking homeopathic anti-virals:)...

 

And yet, after this illness, I developed my new suspected allergy...which is the kinda weird after-effect that might happen if I dealt with some new virus I never had before...

 

So, I would also love certainty on antibodies:)...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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On the real deaths there was an early study from the University of Miami that suggested a real mortality rate of .66% (without asymptomatic patients it calculated a 1.38%). Keep in mind that that is still well above the flu death rate that is estimated at 0.1%

 

Also, the University of Washington has added other countries (and within some of them regions within countries) to their model

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Go to the first drop down (it defaults to the United States) and you can choose from 29 countries besides the US. For Germany, Italy and Spain it includes regions within the countries as well.

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The last human experiment known as "herd immunity strategy" in Europe doesn't please the neighbors of Sweden:

Quote

 

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43 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

The last human experiment known as "herd immunity strategy" in Europe doesn't please the neighbors of Sweden:

 

They'll all be looking at envy at Sweden in a few years when they realise they are the only country in the western world without a pensions crisis.

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2 minutes ago, AndyK said:

They'll all be looking at envy at Sweden in a few years when they realise they are the only country in the western world without a pensions crisis.

Who's "they", psychopaths who hate old people and cancer patients?

Either way, Swedish opposition to this madness is growing and I don't expect the human trial to last much longer.

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6 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Either way, Swedish opposition to this madness is growing and I don't expect the human trial to last much longer.

yep, Sweden added >100 dead bodies today, for a total of 591. I wonder how much longer they can sustain this. As a comparison, Austria - about the same population size, 10-15% smaller - added 23 today, the total is now at 243. Despite the fact that Austria was hit much harder in the beginning, bordering on Italy and with all the skiing hotspots and tourism.

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The UW model now includes forecasts for European nations:

Quote

New COVID-19 forecasts for Europe: Italy & Spain have passed the peak of their epidemics; UK, early in its epidemic, faces a fast-mounting death toll.

 

The UK could see as many as 66,000 Covid-19 deaths during the first wave of the current pandemic, more than a third of the expected death toll across Europe, according to modelling by a US university.

 

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine estimated that approximately 151,680 people were likely to die from the virus across the continent. The institute estimates 81,766 deaths for the whole of the US.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

 

Again this model is only for the first wave but seems optimistic for many countries (especially the US).

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2 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

Just because you are mod you does not  mean you have an open license to say stupid nonsense that is not true.

 

Then delete post that counter you narrative.

 

Like there are a lot of low information voters, but that is reaching a bit lol 

 

Then what makes you think you have that open license every day?

Edited by The Panda
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Looks like the time for lock-downs within Germany might wary a bit.

At least it did sound to me as counting for my state only (for now)

As Bavaria is actual the state with the worst per population count it could be the reason for it:

 

our head of state said a few hours back it will be need longer time till all is open. He hinted at the Austrian solution a bit, also named schools as an example for being longer closed. But I think they will open them earlier for the grades that are in their finals.

 

Also listed restaurants, hotels,... as longer being closed

 

Also he says he ~ expects masks to become mandatory ... (different versions for different situations, medical/care getting the professional ones...)

 

 

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I think most schools in USA will be smart and close for the school year which sucks for parents and kids. 

 

What's unclear is preschools classified as child care (Montessori types) are open in summer so not sure what happens with them. Washington closed all schools for the year. Hoping my daughter can go back in May or June....argh

 

Sticking with Trump not extending April 30th guideline if data continues to get better in general. Curious to see if we see that Tuesday big jump. Dow is up 5000 points from the low 15 days ago.

Edited by cdsacken

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6 hours ago, terrestrial said:

 

Is that frustration speaking or is that seriously meant - assuming you mean counting for the US?

To be fair, @AndyLL is probably more accurate with that comment than inaccurate, in spirit, when speaking about the US.

 

A fairly recent USNews report in 2015 reports how below average American students are at geographic comprehension in social studies classes:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/10/16/us-students-are-terrible-at-geography%3Fcontext%3Damp
 

From a test given to 1000 Americans vs 1000 Europeans, while a majority of Americans could point out where China was, they faired quite a bit worse than their European counterparts.  And it’s pretty staggering how poorly Americans and Europeans did at recognizing the locations of some fairly easy countries to locate (like North Korea, less than half of Americans in the survey could point to it on a map)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-6289667/amp/The-U-S-vs-Europeans-interactive-test-shows-Americans-really-ARENT-good-geography.html

 

So while, yes more than half of Americans probably could point to China on a map, the spirit of the comment was more of hyperbolizing about just how ignorant the American populace is as a whole about other places in the world.  This is an overall idea that obviously shows up to be true.

Edited by The Panda
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Japan jumping on the bandwagon, better late than never.

 

 

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