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A scientist who adapted his veterinary lab to test for disease among humans rather than salmon is being celebrated for helping the Faroe Islands avoid coronavirus deaths, where a larger proportion of the population has been tested than anywhere in the world.

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The north Atlantic archipelago currently has only one person in hospital with Covid-19 and it is one of five European countries, along with Latvia, Georgia, Malta and Liechtenstein to so far not have any deaths from the virus.

 

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, peludo said:

Well, according worldometers, death rate per million in both Spain and Italy are not too different (311 vs 283). Anyway the count of deaths is far from being exact. I am reading analysis which say that deaths in Spain becasue of Covid could be, right now, double of current number, so close to 30,000... And I guess that scenario could be the same in many other countries.

 

I see two problems in Spain which maybe there are not so deep in other countries: life style (we spend a lot of time outside home, what increases the risk of contagion) and aged population (most of deaths are aged people with previous pathologies and by 2015 Spain was proportionally the country in the world with more people over 60 years old).

 

It is just a theory but I think it fits quite well with what is happening, beyond the govenment could have taken decissions a couple of days before what I think it is a problem of many countries, not just Spain.

I think what the NHS spreadsheet numbers show, is that, here in the UK, the daily numbers are aggregated as they arrive from the source hospitals. They include deaths that occured maybe days or weeks ago but have just arrived at central accounting.

 

I suspect the care home death statistics, even though they are counted, are even more lagged that the hospital ones.

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26 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

the "closing of borders" is a solution if an outbreak is still confined to a certain region. When it's already all over the world, closing borders is just a placebo, the important thing to do is keeping your distance, from everyone, no matter what country they hail from.

 

Here in Tyrol, we had a very severe lockdown+quarantine, people were forbidden to cross community borders which was quite absurd in many cases since they're rarely visible and people often have no idea where those borders run. Police sent back people who wanted to buy something in their usual supermarket across the road because the border ran along this road, and so on. Really made no sense, and the rest of Austria was able to flatten the curve nearly equally well with less severe restrictions.

 

The issue is closing the border a part of flattening the curve though and it depends on each area. 

 

Issue is if you look at Canada...

 

Would it not make sense to shut down the US border to Americans, like we did?

 

The main focus should be to stop community spread with measures already, but does it make sense to bring in people who have a very high risk of being infected as US Covid spread is way more?

 

So, how would you flatten the curve if you bring in people that cause more chains of transmission? 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, RamblinRed said:

Also, good news from the Univ of Washington model.

The update today has avg deaths down to 60K in the us with a range of 31K to 131K. A much lower projection then ever before.

Having the predicted total death count for the UK bigger than the whole of the USA is quite bizarre.

 

 

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14 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Having the predicted total death count for the UK bigger than the whole of the USA is quite bizarre.

It is for the "first wave" only but I'm not sure what that means for a country as big as the US with no clear nationwide strategy. Probably:

 

The first wave of the model = sum of all first waves in each state.

 

It probably won't look like a "wave" in the US overall though.

Edited by MrGlass2
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2 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

No, the lesson is not 'let' s close the borders' as it's not economically viable on the long run. 

 

The only solution is the Chinese solution: automatic testing for anybody coming from abroad, and if a person is infected among them it must self-isolate for 2 weeks. 

 

That's the real lesson here, efficiency must beat ideology and recklessness in order to protect both people and the economy. 

It is not like lockdown are viable on the long run.

 

A world 3 month strict control (if you have fast enough test that the same or if it is acceptable to quarantine everyone, not self quarantine but a controlled one it can be the same, but those are also maybe not economically viable on the long run) from people coming/having been in Wuhan that would have started in 2019, could have slowed this a lot.

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28 minutes ago, stephanos13 said:

I don't know how easy will be for the US to flatten the curve because of transportation between states (planes, etc.). Other countries shut down their borders both land and air and there is no travel in and out.

https://www.flightradar24.com/15.11,56.93/2, look how much the sky is painted by the volume of flight still going on.

 

There is flight in and out of even Italy today, there not many country (I do not have an example in mind) that have actually closed their borders on either land or air. Maybe Vietnam ? 

 

I do not think it was ever even talked about in Canada.

 

This is still today the official recommandation:

https://travel.gc.ca/assistance/emergency-info/financial-assistance/covid-19-financial-help

If you are already outside Canada, think about returning as soon as possible

 

And I imagine it would be the same everywhere, country pushing even actively helping for the most travel of possible from their citizen abroad, it does seem the reasonable thing to do.

 

Edited by Barnack
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41 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

It is for the "first wave" only but I'm not sure what that means for a country as big as the US with no clear nationwide strategy. Probably:

 

During the 1918 it was also quite local strategies I think and it looked like this in the US:

death-chart.jpg

 

Never before, measure like today were taken I think, so that could change this time, but it could take a wavy look if it end up being strongly seasonal and if the relaxation occur around the same time, the re-putting them in place at the same time, despite if the local situation are different. In this couple of weeks make giant difference when you are in it, but when you look at a graph a year later, it can look close.

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2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

https://www.flightradar24.com/15.11,56.93/2, look how much the sky is painted by the volume of flight still going on.

 

There is flight in and out of even Italy today, there not many country (I do not have an example in mind) that have actually closed their borders on either land or air. Maybe Vietnam ? 

 

 

I look up and I still see jets flying, I think nowadays, the passengers are just an extra revenue stream adding to the cargo in the belly.

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2 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

the "closing of borders" is a solution if an outbreak is still confined to a certain region. When it's already all over the world, closing borders is just a placebo, the important thing to do is keeping your distance, from everyone, no matter what country they hail from.

For place that want to re-open like Taiwan with a different timing then the rest of the world, not closing their border (would it be effectively with superbe testing of everyone coming in or literally if they can) seem to be a big issue.

 

Closing the border late make it soon that you gain just 4-6 days, but closing your border december 31 like some country do, do seem to work, the closing the border outside Asia do not do much because it is always too late to be politically feasible could be true, but that different.

 

Here the outbreak was confined to a certain region for long enough that the closing of border solution could have been superbe (and seem to have been for the people that did it).

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2 minutes ago, AndyK said:

I look up and I still see jets flying, I think nowadays, the passengers are just an extra revenue stream adding to the cargo in the belly.

You can click of them and many are cargo plane yes but many are not, I think if we would be asking around we would all easily find story of people that came back in our countries in the last 2 weeks.

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