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DeeCee

Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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7 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

But was there any unusual increase in flu hospitalisation and flu related death over November-January. Surely that data would be available now?  

Yeah, like I said, I'm skeptical.  But more the scientific definition of the word "skeptical" as I want more/any data. Right not all we have is just sporadic anecdotal evidence of "really really really bad flu-like symptoms".

 

And while anecdotal evidence, contrary to the meme, is a kind of evidence, it's hardly conclusive or even that valuable.  But it is worth pursuing, I think.  If only to get a baseline of folks currently who got COVID-19 in the state and didn't get symptoms in the past month-plus.

Edited by Porthos
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27 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Something to ponder in regards to California.

IS it different than the state of Washington and British Columbia ? (i.e. is it all of the American west ?) or there something particular with California ?

 

Almost no one seem to have this in British Columbia as well.

Edited by Barnack
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5 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

Looking at a few articles from early January there doesn’t seem to be anything out of the ordinary on the scale of what has happened in New York. 
 

https://laist.com/2020/01/10/california_flu_season_los_angeles_vaccine_shot_bvictoria_ah1n1.php

Oh, I think if there had been a NYC situation we would have all known about it.  

 

But it is a little curious in that article:

 

Quote

Looking statewide, California isn't faring worse this flu season than it has in years past — so far.

"Right now things are looking like similar to what we have seen in usual flu seasons," said Dr. James Watt, chief of the division of communicable disease control with the California Department of Public Health.

But that's not the case in Los Angeles County, which is "experiencing high levels of influenza activity," according to an advisory issued Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Flu is turning up at a rate higher than the peak of all but one of the last five influenza seasons, according to the county's most recent "Influenza Watch" update.

That's also the case for the rate of ER visits for influenza-like illnesses in the county. The only recent season that saw a higher rate for flu and ER visits was the 2017-18 season, which was particularly severe.

While the statewide situation is not cause for alarm, we are still in the middle of flu season, so the disease "is circulating widely throughout the state right now," Watt said.

 

It could be, emphasis on could, that a fraction of those were coronavirus related.  Still doubtful, mind.  But also curious, if that makes any sense.

Edited by Porthos
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More details:

 

Quote

The All England Lawn Tennis Club (AELTC) has insurance that covers infectious diseases and, in the wake of Wimbledon's cancellation due to the coronavirus pandemic, is putting together a claim that could exceed £100 million, according to Stuart Fraser of The Times.

 

Wimbledon, tennis' oldest Grand Slam, was officially called off last month for the first time since World War II.

 

The insurance policy costs roughly £1.5 million per year and was put in place amid concerns over the SARS outbreak in 2003, Fraser adds.

 

That's not as much as Wimbledon would have made this year, but they will be hurting a lot less than a lot of other sports leagues/tournaments. 

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30 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

But was there any unusual increase in flu hospitalisation and flu related death over November-January. Surely that data would be available now?  

We would need something like that:

NCHS13_small.gif

 

But for the state of California alone (that seem to show COVID uptick just starting in the latest available data), according to this:

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/fluportaldashboard.html

 

Didn't seem to have been anything close to say 2017-2018 in California during that time frame.

Edited by Barnack
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2 hours ago, PDC1987 said:

As bad as the mortality rate is, it's still not nearly high enough for the virus to be a biological weapon.

The Bioweapon theory is crap,pure and simple.

Though you can bet that a real bioweapon virus is something a lot of national security people are having nightmares about. Seeing how sucessful Covid 19 was in spreading massive disrupution,think of how a deadier one...a weaponized Ebola type virus could wreak havoc. Every major terrorist group and every tin pot dictator with delusions of grandeur has such a bioweapon on the top of his wish list.And sooner or later, some bunch of kooks will get one.

Edited by dudalb
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This "pastor" is running a death cult

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/491928-louisiana-pastor-who-refuses-to-stop-holding-church-services-says-true

 

Jim Jones for the new millinium.

 

 

I hope this pastor meets his friend real soon and stops endangering others with his crap.

And people wonder why I don't have much respect for religious fundemnatlist of any stripe...

Edited by dudalb
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It is vanishingly unlikely for this virus to have been circulating undetected in the United States since before January of this year.

Three main reasons:

 

1) The exponential growth of the virus, with a doubling time when left unchecked of less than a week, means that moving forward the date of arrival just a month would result in about 16 times as many cases. The scale of the epidemic would be much larger unless somehow the virus spent a long time growing at a much slower rate, even in the absence of any containment measures. That would be inconsistent with anything we've observed for this virus, and indeed for any novel infectious disease.

2) The US does do routine testing of influenza-like illness. What this means, is that when people go to a hospital with influenza-like illness, they get tested, so that the prevalence of infection of various strains can be determined. This data serves a number of purposes, one of which is to estimate the general prevalence of the flu, another is to determine which strains are circulating so the flu shot can be adjusted for the following season. Some proportion of these tests come back negative all the time - false negatives, or illness being caused by some other organism. There was no elevation in the rate of negative tests for influenza-like illness until February of this year. (Which is more important than looking at an elevation in the overall rate of influenza-like illness, there's a lot of variation in that from year to year.)

 

3) This one's a bit complicated. The RNA of the virus accumulates random mutations at a fairly constant rate, as a result of random errors in transcription. This allows us to establish the relationship between different viral samples, for example, whether newer viral samples are likely to be descended from an older viral sample, based on sharing an ancestral set of mutations compared to an even older sample. It also allows us to estimate how long ago, for any given set of samples, that they last shared a common ancestor, based on the total number of different mutations that have occured - since the rate of mutation can be determined using virus samples that have been collected over time, allowing for calibration of a "molecular clock".

All the US samples of the virus can have trace their ancestry traced back to samples that were sequenced in China from December 30 to early January, at the earliest. (I don't know how easy it is to interpret phylogenetic trees if you're not familiar with them, but you can see this data at https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global.)

If the virus had been circulating in the US before that time, there should be at least some samples found that could trace their ancestry to the samples from the earliest dates in China (but not dates later on), or alternatively that couldn't have their ancestry directly traced back to China at all. (Since earliest sequenced samples are from December 24, viruses circulating in the United States before that time could not have those samples be ancestral to them.)


-----Slight digression-----

 

While we're on the subject, you can see in the above phylogenetic tree (and from the map) that a majority of US samples actually trace their proximal ancestry back to samples from Europe from mid-February. The NY Times just published an article on this: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html

(Edit: of course @Plain Old Tele posted said article while I was writing this. Took me a while because I was interrupted, my mother called for her daily COVID-19 Q&A)
 

Quote

New research indicates that the coronavirus began to circulate in the New York area by mid-February, weeks before the first confirmed case, and that it was brought to the region mainly by travelers from Europe, not Asia.

 

“The majority is clearly European,” said Harm van Bakel, a geneticist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, who co-wrote a study awaiting peer review.

 

A separate team at N.Y.U. Grossman School of Medicine came to strikingly similar conclusions, despite studying a different group of cases. Both teams analyzed genomes from coronaviruses taken from New Yorkers starting in mid-March.

 

The research revealed a previously hidden spread of the virus that might have been detected if aggressive testing programs had been put in place. 

 

Edited by Jason
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Yeah if the coronavirus had been circulating undetected in California for 5+ months, the hospitals would have been overwhelmed long ago; that is the way it is with this virus, it can't stay "hidden" very long.

Edited by MrGlass2
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I am grateful for all of the forum members in this thread who take the time to fact-check and/or are educated in the particular science on which they speak. This really helps to keep unsubstantiated claims at bay, and I'm grateful on a personal level, as I am learning a lot.

 

Peace,

Mike

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I was having a look back through the case history in NSW. 
 

26 January- 4 cases confirmed. 

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200127_03.aspx

 

13 February- First 4 cases all cleared and out of the hospital. 883 tests. [866 tests achieved in 4 March*]
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200213_00.aspx

 

29 February- 5th case confirmed. 
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200301_00.aspx

 

3 March-  22 cases. 1st death. 
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200304_06.aspx

 

7 March- 34 confirmed cases. 6796 tests. [2,150 tests]
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200307_00.aspx

 

15 March- 134 cases. 4 deaths. 22,567 tests. [25,724 tests. Passed NSW for the first time]
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200315_00.aspx

 

27 March- 1617 cases (212 new cases was the peak day). 8 deaths. 86524 tests. [626,633 tests]

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200328_00.aspx

 

2 April- 2389 cases. 12 deaths. 114,455 tests. 
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200328_00.aspx

 

8 April- 2,773 (39 new cases). 21 deaths. 132,997 tests. 
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200409_00.aspx


*The figure in these [] is US testing for the whole country at that point in time. 
https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily

 

 

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Cap said:

My friend and her sister live in Las Vegas. She had a nasty nasty flu last November where she couldn’t breathe. Her sister coughed so much she coughed up blood. She totally thinks it was COVID. 

As I said earlier in the thread, I had the same sort of bug just before Xmas.

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in Austria, the "Matura" (end-of-school exams, needed for studying; equates to a High School Diploma from the administrative side but is closer to a US Bachelor from the amount of work and knowledge) will be a "Matura light" this year

https://www.diepresse.com/5797649/maturaunterricht-startet-am-4-mai-mundliche-matura-entfallt

 

Shaky decision as with so many decisions these days, we're making things up along the not-so-clear way. But better than nothing I guess.

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