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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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Glad Boris’ condition is improving, but this headline is disgusting. I guess we shouldn’t be surprised. It’s The Sun. Vile paper full of hatred and propaganda.

 

 

Edited by Heretic
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1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

No forecast is indicating a 60% GDP loss. That's crazy pants. 40% for 1 quarter would be mind boggling. Bad enough to guarantee a massive drop for GDP this year.

I'm not suggesting a 60% GDP loss for a quarter - even for a full month. I'm just saying that when people first start going back to work, given alot of states will still be in lockdown, you might only have 40-50% of normal GDP starting to go back to work. It will ramp up over time.

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BORIS JOHNSON IS NO MORE unstable

BORIS JOHNSON HAS PASSED the difficult stage

BORIS JOHNSON WILL BE MISSED by the icu staff

BORIS JOHNSON DEAD wrong about hand-shaking

BORIS JOHNSON, RIP the stupid newspapers

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10 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Article on Sweden's attempts to control COVID19

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/europe/sweden-lockdown-turmp-intl/index.html

 

Quote
Tom Britton, professor of mathematical statistics at Stockholm University, models how infectious diseases behave in a population. He believes 40% of the Swedish capital's population will be infected by the end of April. While acknowledging the difficulty of measuring the rate of infection, he told CNN that "my best guess today would be 10% or a bit more" of Swedes currently have the virus nationwide.
 
Some opponents of the government's policy fear that reliance on voluntary behavior will cause a much faster spike in cases, potentially overwhelming the health care system. Sweden also has one of the lowest ratios of critical care beds per capita in Europe, and the government official who spoke with CNN said that supplies of protective equipment are only just staying ahead of demand.
...
The next month will determine whether the Swedish system got it right.

I'm sure it will all work out great. :winomg:

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17 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Article on Sweden's attempts to control COVID19

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/europe/sweden-lockdown-turmp-intl/index.html

 

 

Sweden is just so wrong, surprising from a country that usually seems to care about its population. 

Edited by Fullbuster
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Italy

🔴 #Coronavirus, national update at 18

• Current cases: 98,273 (+1,396, + 1.4%)
• Deceased: 18,849 (+570, + 3.1%)
• Discharged / Healed: 30,455 (+1,985, + 7.0%)
• Intensive care patients: 3,497 (-108, -3.0%)

Total cases: 147.577 (+3.951, + 2.8%)
 

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43 minutes ago, a2k said:

religious places will be the first to reopen

Freaking religion man. That’s high on community transmission possibilities and 0 on essentiality, they should be among last to open.

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49 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

I'm not suggesting a 60% GDP loss for a quarter - even for a full month. I'm just saying that when people first start going back to work, given alot of states will still be in lockdown, you might only have 40-50% of normal GDP starting to go back to work. It will ramp up over time.

It's not down 60% even in lockdown. Again that possibility isn't possible. A horrific God awful forecast for q2 is 50%. Nearly guarantees depression, assuming through the summer we don't open states that don't have breakouts.

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11 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

What is ICU capacity at though? If you’re at like 99% capacity then daily net will be pretty much guaranteed to be ~flat...

Outside of New York City it's not even close to 99%. Nyu City was already high before this so yeah probably damn near max.

Edited by cdsacken
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2,000+ Cases in Ecuador on worldometer. Could be another mistake like they made earlier with Pakistan tho??

 

So how likely do we all think it is that cases are going to skyrocket in a lot of places in the next coming week? Obviously most everywhere is in full shutdown mode but it's officially Easter weekend now and it is pretty much a given to me that around the world there will be people trying their hardest to ignore lockdown and have their big Easter festivities. Hopefully it can be stopped as much as possible, but it'll certainly be impossible to stop it all. So the question becomes how bad will the spread be this weekend and where will it hit hardest?

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8 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

In Austria, the testing of a representative sample of 2.000 Austrians last weekend showed a 0,5% positive rate ... which means that, despite Austria being a little hotspot, any talks about "herd immunity" are way way off. It also means that testing in Austria was pretty good, of course you're missing cases but the dark figures are probably only about 2-3x the confirmed cases, not 10x or bigger as some had suggested.

It is strange that they talked about 1% for around 90,000 case this week, not 0.5%

 

And now it seem to be about 0.32% and 1,544 test instead of 2,000:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-10/austrian-study-shows-coronavirus-cases-more-than-3-times-higher

 

According to worldmeter Austria has over 400 test by dead too, France has 27, Italie 48, Spain 22. (And that with probably missing less deaths in their counts), very few place tested more than them, I could imagine France numbers being 5-10x off if they are 2-3x time off.

 

Numbers are here:

https://www.sora.at/nc/news-presse/news/news-einzelansicht/news/covid-19-praevalenz-1006.html

 

95% chance that 10.2K to 67.4K people were infected in early april, with 28.5K being the best guestimate.

 

It does show that containment measure do seem to work quite a bit if only 30K has it, if the US is just 40% worst they would have around 1.5 million infected (about 3 times more than the known case)

Edited by Barnack
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