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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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51 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

I'm glad to say France definitely passed the peak: the number of daily deaths is decreasing on average, fewer people going into intensive cares. April 6 was the worst day with 605 deceased, today we got 353. In the end France never reached the level of pain Italy and Spain got, and the healthcare system held on very well as it never reached saturation. 

Another secret of Macron: don't test anybody so the numbers remain lower than Italy.

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4 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

You make my point for me.  Small businesses pass  their income through to their personal taxes.  It's the larger corporations and high earners that get the tax breaks.

 

Well no, they can pay themselve via dividend and via salary, everyone with a small business are maximizing those.

 

5 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

Inflation punishes everyone by making the future value of their money worth less so I see no reason to give those that can afford to invest a tax break because of it.

That the only case where how much they have made make that calculation Value now - Value of the past (and using vastly different money because they do not consider inflation, a bit like taxing on much you made by selling in Canadian dollars stock you bought in US dollars).

 

7 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

That's a risk of investing... to make sure your gains outpace inflation.  Which hasn't been an issue in the modern stock market.

I think we could reasonably argue to make sure to have your net gains to be above inflation, not your gross gains.

 

Say you invested in 2000 in a company that gave 0 dividend: $10,000

In 2020, you sell it $18,000, +80%.

 

Say taxation on your gain is 45% and that you pay $3,600 in tax, you have $14.400 in your pocket.

$14.400 in 2020 in dollars is worth $9,607 in 2000 money.

 

In reality with that tax rate you didn't do +80% on your investment you lost 4%, people in that example would choose a 100% capital tax gain if the gain calculation adjust for inflation, they would have paid less taxes and not lose money at least.

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1 hour ago, terrestrial said:

i‘d love to see per capita per worst top 10 counties per state or countries

 

and dead count per official infected, same counties in comparison

 

I think local officials vary strongly in how good they are in organizing, leading with example and so on, as an additional reason to e.g. in county XY are more than average care homes, or...

NY Times has deaths per capita in counties for the US. It’s not ranked for the whole country though, but you can rank it in order for each state.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

Edited by Inceptionzq
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12 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

It's mostly people mad about the idea.

That's accurate. I went over to twitter and looked at the most recent couple hundred tweets using that hashtag, and the vast majority were expressing outrage. Trump is so isolated from reality.

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5 minutes ago, doublejack said:

That's accurate. I went over to twitter and looked at the most recent couple hundred tweets using that hashtag, and the vast majority were expressing outrage. Trump is so isolated from reality.

Isn't that counter productive?

 

People will just see the hashtag.

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2 hours ago, Barnack said:

That seem quite encouraging right ? If they are not easter friday deflated.

I hope so. That seems the trend along previous days. We have had less than 1k new active cases in last 4 days. It seems promising. But we will have to wait until to Tuesday to confirm it.

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On 4/7/2020 at 2:58 PM, Andreas said:

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/gesundheit/coronavirus-junge-menschen-gefahr-1.4863155

"Während in Deutschland bislang mehr als neun Prozent der über 80-Jährigen, bei denen das neue Coronavirus nachgewiesen wurde, gestorben sind, waren es unter den 60- bis 69-Jährigen nur gut zwei Prozent. Von den unter 30-jährigen positiv Getesteten mussten dagegen 98,8 Prozent nicht ins Krankenhaus, die allermeisten Jungen und Gesunden spüren nicht einmal etwas davon, wenn sie sich anstecken. Intensivstation, Todesgefahr, das Risiko dafür ist in dieser Altersgruppe so gering, dass es mit 0,03 Prozent statistisch kaum valide zu erfassen ist. Erst in der Gruppe der 30- bis 39-Jährigen steigt das Letalitätsrisiko in den Promillebereich."

 

ENG: "While more than 9% of the over-80 year-old have died in Germany, only 2% of those aged 60-69 have died from it. For under 30-year olds who have tested positiv for Covid, 98.8% didn't need hospitalization, and most of them didn't even know they were infected. The risk of getting admitted to the ICU or dying is so little for this age group, that we can hardly consider it to be statistically valid (0.03%). The lethality-risk gets more noticeable in 30-39 year-olds (0.1%)."

 

This data shows that Germany does A LOT more testing than Italy, Spain or UK, and that the IFR (infection-fatality-rate) is much smaller than the CFR (case-fatality-rate).

 

Current CFR in Italy vs Germany:

over 80 year-olds: 30% vs 9%

60-69: 8.4% vs 2%

30-39: 0.4% vs 0.1%

20-29: 0.1% vs 0.03%

 

Also, data from both the US and Spain have shown that around 12-18% of people under the age of 30 need hospitalization. In Germany, only 1.2% have needed it, once again proving the same thing.

 

I believe there might be at least 20x more COVID-19 cases worldwide than the official numbers seem to suggest.

Just came across more data to support this.

Italy's death rate among infected medical workers (no less than 14.032) is 0.3%. 

0% for under 30 year-olds.

0.1% for 30-49 year-olds.

0.3% for 50-59 year-olds.

1.3% for 60-69 year-olds.

10.3% for 70+ year-olds.

 

It would just make sense that a MUCH larger proportion of medical workers are getting tested than general population.

 

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_9-aprile-2020.pdf

(Page 13)

Edited by Andreas
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11 minutes ago, Andreas said:

 

Current CFR in Italy vs Germany:

over 80 year-olds: 30% vs 9+%

60-69: 8.4% vs 2++%

30-39: 0.4% vs 0.1%

20-29: 0.1% vs 0.03%

great find ! (I gave today a bit up, too depressing, no idea why it hits today harder thanbefore)

 

I‘d only add maybe (if you are interested into the details of the language, in no way meant as criticism, I see you look for data too, so I thought you might want to know, just in case) the plus signs, as more than 9% and ‚gut 2%‘, the gut does not stand for good like in quality, but in over 2 in a not micro amount way (but also not a lot, like 2.5)

 

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Just 137k tests today, -25% weekly (after removing the cali pending dump, otherwise -40% weekly).    
 

positive continues to hover 22-23%. Still weeks and weeks at least before reopening can be seriously considered.

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4 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Just 137k tests today, -25% weekly (after removing the cali pending dump, otherwise -40% weekly).    
 

positive continues to hover 22-23%. Still weeks and weeks at least before reopening can be seriously considered.

well, it's been the same practically everywhere in the "western" world with some exceptions (Australia showed much quicker reflexes than most european countries) ... we all saw what was happening but we only began acting when it was nearly too late.

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5 hours ago, Plain Old Tele said:

22-24 Celsius is hot weather? Oh man....

 :hahaha:

It gets positively baking around here whenever it hits 24 degrees. Summer's getting increasingly unbearable as a result.

 

Although I wish it was 20+ right now since it's still so cold I have to wear thick gloves while biking. And that stupid wind...

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43 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

great find ! (I gave today a bit up, too depressing, no idea why it hits today harder thanbefore)

 

I‘d only add maybe (if you are interested into the details of the language, in no way meant as criticism, I see you look for data too, so I thought you might want to know, just in case) the plus signs, as more than 9% and ‚gut 2%‘, the gut does not stand for good like in quality, but in over 2 in a not micro amount way (but also not a lot, like 2.5)

 

You're right, thank you!

I'm part german and I did understand that, but I guess I've missed it when I've read the article :)

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43 minutes ago, cookie said:

It gets positively baking around here whenever it hits 24 degrees. Summer's getting increasingly unbearable as a result.

 

Although I wish it was 20+ right now since it's still so cold I have to wear thick gloves while biking. And that stupid wind...

Wind is always the biggest bitch. 

 

24 degrees is baking, though? That's a very cool day here (in summer, it can hit 55 degrees). BUT...the one thing that's surprised me is that air-condition isn't as prevalent as I thought it would be in Europe.

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