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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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2 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Governors will do what they think is right ... doing the opposite of what Trump's ideas are will probably put you on the safe side

I would anticipate 80% of Republican governors agreeing with Trump. Dewine, Baker, Hogan won't. Not sure who else.

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4 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Hmm, 2017/18 flu season had 61,000 deaths in USA.

 

So this doesn't seem right (yet).

It could be right, a terrible 2017-2018 level week is around 7,000-8,000 death I think, that would less than the 1,700-1,800 a day you need to be number one above heart disease.

Edited by Barnack
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Ecuadors numbers confuse me. 2,000 cases one day and then suddenly only 60 another. They also seem to have one of the highest amounts of undercounted deaths. Sounds like hundreds are dying there and yet they have very little confirmed deaths 

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16 minutes ago, Barnack said:

It could be right, a terrible 2017-2018 level week is around 7,000-8,000 death I think, that would less than the 1,700-1,800 a day you need to be number one above heart disease.

Amortised over time though 24K < 61K.

 

No doubt it will be come the leading cause at years end.

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18 hours ago, AndyK said:

Amortised over time though 24K < 61K.

 

No doubt it will be come the leading cause at years end.

Not sure what you meant, but there is still many doubt about that, for a country like the USA:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm

  • Heart disease: 647,457
  • Cancer: 599,108
  • Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
  • Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
  • Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
  • Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
  • Diabetes: 83,564
  • Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
  • Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
  • Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

 

 

 

COVID need to kill over 600K to compete as a number one cause of death I would imagine (depending how they count it), if it achieve that just this year, with 2021 could need over 1 million death.

 

Could happen obviously, but it is very much in doubt, it could end up lower than Alzheimer or Diabetes or even of usually influenza in many country with the level of measure undertaken.

Edited by Barnack
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1 hour ago, dudalb said:

ANohter reason why I  think, it Trump is reelected,we will have something  close to a second Civil War in this country.

You claim to fight against hate, and yet you are the one that is preaching hate and fearmongering with some fantasy "civil war".

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45 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Hmm, 2017/18 flu season had 61,000 deaths in USA.

 

So this doesn't seem right (yet).

You are aware how they count death as flu caused there? Like if its e.g. a newborn dying after a pneumonia during flu season, its counted as flu and so on.

Got here repeatedly mentioned I think - or was it in the (too) many articles I read?

 

I try to take a break, prepare for a possible reopening of ‘my’ school at 20 April, even if it is possible the date will get moved.

 

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3 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

I assume this is monthly.  

It is for the full flu season.

 

1 minute ago, terrestrial said:

You are aware how they count death as flu caused there?

It is math model that use some precise sampling  of certain population extrapolated, mixed with how many people globally die during the flu weeks vs usually mostly from what I understand.

 

Description in detail:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25738736

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29446233

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm

The model uses a ratio of deaths-to-hospitalizations in order to estimate the total influenza-associated deaths from the estimated number of influenza-associated hospitalizations.

We first look at how many in-hospital deaths were observed in FluSurv-NET. The in-hospital deaths are adjusted for under-detection of influenza using methods similar to those described above for hospitalizations using data on the frequency and sensitivity of influenza testing. Second, because not all deaths related to influenza occur in the hospital, we use death certificate data to estimate how likely  deaths are to occur outside the hospital.  We look at death certificates that have pneumonia or influenza causes (P&I), other respiratory and circulatory causes (R&C), or other non-respiratory, non-circulatory causes of death, because deaths related to influenza may not have influenza listed as a cause of death. We use information on the causes of death from FluSurv-NET to determine the mixture of P&I, R&C, and other coded deaths to include in our investigation of death certificate data. Finally, once we estimate the proportion of influenza-associated deaths that occurred outside of the hospital, we can estimate the deaths-to-hospitalization ratio.

Data needed to estimate influenza-associated deaths may lag for up to two years after the season ends. When this is not yet available for the season being estimated, we adjust based on values observed in prior seasons (e.g., the 2010-2011 season through the 2016-2017 season) and update the estimates when more current data become available.

 

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1 hour ago, Barnack said:

That graph and that statement are showing different things, that graph put many cause of deaths in the same category (i.e. in 1918 infection went over all non infectious type of death, cancer+accidents+heart disease together) and show how little of an uptick the 100, 000 american death from the 1968 Hong Kong flu seem to have made.

 

I am not sure if there is anyone still in the it is just the flu camp, it is just an extremely bad flu (say 3 time worst, that would only kill 3-4 time more people than a bad flu season, say 150-300K people if nothing special would be done that do not believe the 1-3 million death scenario) do still exist thought.

 

In the worst weeks of the flu, you can go over 1,000 a day dying from it in the USA.

 

That particular graph only shows data up to 1999. If you follow the link you'll see that is the year it was created. The claims made by that twitter account are completely accurate

 

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-leading-cause-of-death.html

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5 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

I assume this is monthly.  

Deaths per 100k people per year.

 

54 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Hmm, 2017/18 flu season had 61,000 deaths in USA.

 

So this doesn't seem right (yet).

61k deaths in a year in the US is roughly 20 / 100k people. Corona is 7 / 100k people so far.

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23 minutes ago, Marcus Cato said:

You claim to fight against hate, and yet you are the one that is preaching hate and fearmongering with some fantasy "civil war".

 If thinking and saying Donald Trump is a bigot and wannabe dictator is preaching hate and fearmongering, then I gladly accept the term.

But lets' take this discussion to Politics.

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18 minutes ago, doublejack said:

That particular graph only shows data up to 1999. If you follow the link you'll see that is the year it was created. The claims made by that twitter account are completely accurate

 

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-leading-cause-of-death.html

I am not saying the claim is not accurate, but that the graph in the tweet is not showing the same data has the claim made. The graph show that during 1918, flu was killing more than all the other case of death together let alone being the leading cause of death.

 

If I understand it correctly it does not show if in the worst days of the 1957, 1968 pandemic or of the 2017-2018 flu season (or simply of what we feel terrible for us regular flu almost all season before WW2),  that the excess death related to the flu/flu like affair never went a single day above the second most of that day (would it be heart disease or cancer that day).

 

Most cause of death are seasonal:

325188_1_En_9_Fig1_HTML.gif

 

Lot of cause of death are lower in the summer (I imagine that what make flu death count a bit hard, is lung cancer really deadlier during January than the summer of poor health people having low immunity with an cancer and the flu over it as well and how much death give to each in that case).

 

Someone that is simply using a annual average / 365 and reported to be covid death do not inspire confidence has both value are necessarily off the mark, but I would imagine that right now all other type of death are down making that type of estimate probably likely to be OK if not overestimating the other cause of death.

 

 

Edited by Barnack
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Just now, AndyK said:

Swedens non-lockdown appears to be working

 

For a community that has already more social distancing/not much urban density than say italian, maybe that reduction in activity:

https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-04-05_SE_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

-25% in retail

-37% in public transport

-18% in workplace

 

+ extra measure like handwashing, sitting in a separate way, dancing somewhat not too close to each other in bars, could be enough for an R0 under 1.0, that what the number seem to tell at the moment.

 

Stockholm, is -34% in retail, -50% in public transport, -22% in workplace, public transport being I would imagine the big big place in urban center for transmission it is far from nothing what the people do by themself, while lower density does less.

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