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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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SW Celebration as well, if this policy holds.  Also no crowds for sporting events either.

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46 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-new-york-city-death-count-20200414-fanr6mhybrb73ezaleo2rja2ie-story.html

 

 

Revised figures in nyc say over 10k have died in nyc alone so far.

 

 

Also over 100 deaths in Canada today. Horrid. Senior homes are being wiped out like if its the plague.

It really is horrible. Everything you read is saying nursing homes are losing half or two thirds of their populations from the virus. For the oldest generation this thing really is like the black plague. 

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19 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

SW Celebration as well, if this policy holds.  Also no crowds for sporting events either.

This is going to impact movie theaters for a long time. Box Office is going to be negligible for the rest of 2020, IMO.

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The negative f**ks refusal to see anything but negative crap is quite amusing. Makes me wonder how you all make it through each day.

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3 hours ago, Jason said:


The Washington Post is generally considered credible, yes, and I'm sure the columnist (it's an opinion piece, as noted above) is accurately describing the statements of the people they interviewed. But the problem is, all of the people he interviewed almost certainly have no opinion worth hearing (on this subject). I'm sorry if that sounds harsh.

Yes, many of the early cases don't have a known direct link to the market - but since it's the only common link found among a substantial portion of the cases, it stands to reason that the others can't be directly linked because there was community spread before it was first determined that a novel virus was circulating, and it's very difficult to do contact tracing well after the fact. All of this has been published in peer-reviewed research in the world's leading scientific journal, Nature.

The biosafety level means that the lab is supposed to follow safety protocols, not that the research is secret - and there's been plenty of collaboration between scientists there and internationally - which is how we know that safety protocols weren't 100%. There's no evidence to suggest that the lab has been secretly acquiring other samples no one knows about. Fact is, none of the samples at the lab are a perfect match for this virus, not even close.

The professor being quoted "I don't think it's a conspiracy theory"? He doesn't have any background in biology at all. From his page at UC Berkeley, he's a physicist by training now appointed to the School of Information, and his research has to do with "state censorship, propaganda and disinformation, as well as emerging big data and AI-empowered state surveillance mechanisms in China." I'm sure he's a very smart guy, but he's not a biologist, and having spent thousands of hours studying this stuff, it's definitely not something you just pick up on the side.

As for all the intelligence officials? I can't prove they don't have a background in biology since they're being quoted anonymously, but if any of them did, they shouldn't be offering opinions as obviously uninformed as those quoted in the article. It's completely absurd to suggest there's more evidence in favour of the leak theory instead of natural origin.

Just as an aside, I'm also not a biologist, but I have designed a cancer treatment as a past project.

 

Was quite interesting but would make your eyes water if I told you how it worked.

 

 

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It's certainly scary how much is staying shut down "until a vaccine is found". There is really no estimate time on that one. Literally could be a year or more

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Starting to see a decent trend in % rate. Would love to see similar graphs by state though.   

2766448-B-F796-4047-BFF1-D99323-EE304-F.

 

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1 hour ago, doublejack said:

You can't just look at the % positive tests. The number of raw positives, taken as a 3 day rolling average, peaked 4 days ago. The US should continue to hover in the 2k deaths a day range for the next 7 to 10 days as a result.

 

Cannot just look at raw positive either (thus the arguably, because both metric do not agree, probably because it is so heterogenous, it will be multiple individual peak competing with declines)

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1 hour ago, Lordmandeep said:

What if a client is in a negative balance ?

 

Because the bank I work for in canada made it cover negative balances first on their accounts.

I think that pretty much what they are talking about, if you have  -200 in your account and that there is an 1200 deposit in it, the account could legally be at $1000, instead of creating a different account to put the $1200 and keep your current account at -$200 or create a different account than your current account to put your debt in it (I am not sure how you can simply get around that problem).

 

The situation of refusing to make the payment in the account to not have it eaten by the debt and sending it by a check instead could make thing worst, i.e. many people with a small negative balance would prefer having the transfert than waiting 5 week for the check, creating a second account to put the check in, maybe having to do stuff in person, pay fee anyway.

 

It is not like someone that has a -$1200 check account put back to $0 didn't just receive a nice help (he obviously can spend $1200 and be like he just was at -$1200, I am not certain what difference it make exactly), i.e. I am not sure I understand the issue, the person can still spend $1200 more than he could before receiving that amount pretty much regardless of the situation.

Edited by Barnack
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24 minutes ago, Killimano3 said:

It's certainly scary how much is staying shut down "until a vaccine is found". There is really no estimate time on that one. Literally could be a year or more

Don't worry, nobody's staying shut down. Countries with competent governments are starting to reopen, and will continue to monitor the covid threat.

 

Countries with awful governments will also reopen soon, but they're going for the "herd immunity strategy" after all and millions more will die: see France already planning to reopen schools while the contagion is far from contained, and telling the elderly to self-isolate (good luck with that).

 

Although countries in the second group will be forced to shut down again at one point.

Edited by MrGlass2

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1 hour ago, Barnack said:

Date New test Pos % of positive

I hope things are flattening however I don't don't trust the testing data and I don't think it should be used to determine where on the curve we are on.

 

  • Testing is not standard between states
  • Who gets tested has changed over time
  • More testing in places increases the pos/neg ratio
  • Many places (including CO) assume Covid-19 in many cases and won't test
  • No mention if re-tests are included.  

Hospitalizations might be a better number to track however even that is skewed because, at least here in CO, the symptoms that put you in the hospital have to be pretty severe these days compared to a month ago.  My wife had pneumonia, breathing issues and low oxygen levels last week but they put her on 'in-home' oxygen instead of putting her in the hospital.

 

Months into this and we still have bad and inconsistent data.

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3 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

More testing in places increases the pos/neg ratio

"Luckily" this one isn't much of an issue for us :hahaha:

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51 minutes ago, FilmBuff said:

The negative f**ks refusal to see anything but negative crap is quite amusing. Makes me wonder how you all make it through each day.

Not sure who this is directed at, but there's a huge difference between being negative and being realistic. Saying that life is not going back to normal, or anything really close to that, prior to a vaccine being widely available is just the reality of the situation. This is what the science dictates. Making the best of that situation, or not, determines how optimistic or pessimistic one is.

Edited by doublejack
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39 minutes ago, Killimano3 said:

It's certainly scary how much is staying shut down "until a vaccine is found". There is really no estimate time on that one. Literally could be a year or more

Thinks won't be totally shut down.

 

In CO I expect retail and restaurants to open in May.  It won't be the same as before.... I expect strict limits on the number of people that in these places and maybe enforced negative tests for the workers.

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1 hour ago, FilmBuff said:

The negative f**ks refusal to see anything but negative crap is quite amusing. Makes me wonder how you all make it through each day.

You mean like the day you said to let you know when NBA games got cancelled, then you would take this seriously?

 

And a couple hours later that very same day when that came crashing down at your local OKC game?

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First date night in forever. 

 

Pickup from a burger joint and doing picnic like dinner in isolated place. 

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15 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

First date night in forever. 

 

Pickup from a burger joint and doing picnic like dinner in isolated place. 

“What are those headlights heading for us?”

 

”Quick, start walking.  It’s the cops. We can’t be caught sitting down and eating.”

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So today is by far the deadliest day in America, Worldometers is logging it at 2,349. April 10 was the previous high at 2,035.

 

NYC also announced 3,778 retroactive deaths today, presumed to be from the virus, which was expected with the reports of 200 people dying at home a day in NYC last week (average is 25), among other complications in being able to diagnose the virus. Those haven't been added to any of the national tallies yet, I'm sure they are waiting on more specifics. Lets see what Cuomo says tomorrow morning.

 

I knew the peak of deaths couldn't be last Saturday like the IMHE model was suggesting. Not with the way new cases were ramping up all through last week.

 

Thankfully, new cases are starting to go down. The benefits of 3 weeks of social distancing are kicking in. However, 25k new cases a day is still a massive problem. The number is trending in the right direction but still much much closer to the peak than the valley. Judging by data from the European nations (aside from Germany, who is attacking the coronavirus as if they were Brazil in the 2014 World Cup semi-finals), new cases aren't going to rapidly drop off, even with social distancing.

 

Whichever states cave to POTUS desire to 're-open' earlier than they should will see a resurgence in cases. And even if it's small and manageable, the last thing we need are lingering cases before a possible resurgence in the fall.

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