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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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4 hours ago, dudalb said:

So better people die then you be bored?

Sorry, but you are coming off as a Saturday Night Live satire on a self centered Millinial.

I'm quite lucky in that I enjoy my own company.

 

My wife on the other hand is not so lucky, she has to put up with me 24/7.

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While the strict lockdown here has ended by now after 4 weeks, schools, universities and shopping centres are still closed, as are all types of gastronomy except take-away. It takes time to return to normal, traffic is still far from before, it's very quiet, you hear the birds singing, the wind - I'd call it a slow-down. A nice surprise is that people are extremely polite; people are greeting each other on the streets (or at least giving polite nods), wait without grumbling even if there are (inevitable) delays - this is not a doomsday scenario, it's much more like a travel back in time.

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22 hours ago, peludo said:

Spain - Tuesday

172,541 positive cases (+3,045 relative to Monday) +1.80%

18,056 deaths (+567) +3.24%

67,504 healed (+2,777) +4.29%

86,981 active cases (-299) -0.34%

 

Being cautious since yesterday it was still holiday in some regions and these numbers could still be underreported, but this is the first day that number of active cases drops relative to previous day.

Spain - Wednesday

177,633 positive cases (+5,092 relative to Tuesday) +2.95%

18,579 deaths (+523) +2.90%

70,850 healed (+3,346) +4.96%

88,204 active cases (+1,223) +1.41%

 

We can see the end of the long weekend effect in numbers. Positive cases rise, but deaths and healed people keep the trend. With these data active cases rise again.

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I will admit, like @AndyK mentioned, I am somewhat lucky in this quarantine situation that I do enjoy my own company. Yea, I like seeing friends from time to time, but my social battery always drained incredibly quickly, and I have had problems with social anxiety in the past. I'm not saying a quarantine is HELPING my situation, but being who I am, it has made it easier for me to be on my own for these few weeks (and presumably the next few months).

 

My heart does go out however for people who are not in the same situation, who are in bad home environments, and who are feeling depressed and/or anxious due to the current social situations. 

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Government ONS data includes all Covid deaths including Care Homes and private homes, so the totals are correct but only get corrected at weekends.

 

 

The data is lagged on this chart and the "10-15%" gap is widening, so expect hospital deaths to flatten off and home deaths to get bigger for some time.

 

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1 hour ago, DAJK said:

I will admit, like @AndyK mentioned, I am somewhat lucky in this quarantine situation that I do enjoy my own company. Yea, I like seeing friends from time to time, but my social battery always drained incredibly quickly, and I have had problems with social anxiety in the past. I'm not saying a quarantine is HELPING my situation, but being who I am, it has made it easier for me to be on my own for these few weeks (and presumably the next few months).

 

My heart does go out however for people who are not in the same situation, who are in bad home environments, and who are feeling depressed and/or anxious due to the current social situations. 

 

I feel very much the same. Up until now, my quarantine life hasnt really been that different from my normal life, which i know its maybe a bit sad, but im just not so good at interacting and generally talking to people if that makes sense. My university is also working hard to ensure all courses in the new semester are online. Me and my family also have a very good relationship and nobody gets on the nerve on the others till now so the situation for us isnt that concerning.

 

But i know ofc that tens of millions of people around the world have it much much worse. Especially in poorer countries where people often have to work to ensure their familys have enough food.

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When you lose trust, conspiracy theories are what you get. Many governments at all levels have lost trust, including some at state and local levels that entered this circus with broad tolerance if not outright support. The public was sold on “n days/weeks to flatten the curve.” There was broad bipartisan acceptance of massive disruption for up to a couple months for the sake of getting the health care infrastructure up to the task.

Now almost every hospital outside NYC sits mostly empty, furloughing workers and at risk of closing. Hospital ships? Unused. Field hospitals? Deserted. And we’ve learned that most patients who need ventilators—and presumably almost all of those in the highest-risk groups—never come off of them alive. There are of course no shortages anyway, but if there were, the death rate wouldn’t spike as we were told at the outset.

I think people see the horizon starting to perpetually retreat. We seem to be approaching the “hospitals ready” exit ramp without slowing down, and as long as possible treatments are being pooh-poohed as unproven with no seeming urgency to prove or disprove them, the only other exit ramp we know of is 1.5-2 years down the road. Panic and rebellion are not justifiable. The vaccine endgame is not viable. In that kind of time, skills are lost. A generation falls irrecoverably behind in their education—disproportionately, of course, the children of single, poor, and/or uneducated parents. Lifestyle changes plus stress plus avoidance of routine health services equals mortality. And by the 10th or 15th round of stimulus checks, it’s only a question of whether the Senate majority or inflation rears its head first. 

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While I strongly believe in Social distancing and locking down for the short-term to save hundreds of thousands and millions of lives around the world.

 

I frankly think it's unacceptable for World governments to expect people to practice social distancing up to 2022.

 

You're literally telling people to frankly forfeit 2 years of their lives.

 

 

 

Edited by Lordmandeep

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11 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

While I strongly believe in Social distancing and locking down for the short-term to save hundreds of thousands and millions of lives around the world.

 

I frankly think it's unacceptable for World governments to expect people to practice social distancing up to 2022.

 

You're literally telling people to frankly forfeit 2 years of their lives.

 

 

 

 

Expecting 2 years is batshit insane.

 

Personally, I have a feeling that Memorial Day is going to be key. With it being the traditional start of summer season, if there aren't substantial reopening talks/plans by then, the people will make the decision for the government and just start doing whatever they want. 

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7 hours ago, Plain Old Tele said:

I mean, I could easily see Trump announcing May 1 with great fanfare a few days from now, only to abruptly bail on it two weeks from now, while claiming he was never in favor.  

 

Insert bookmarked quote from 1984 I have on speeddial

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36 minutes ago, ACSlater said:

 

Expecting 2 years is batshit insane.

 

Personally, I have a feeling that Memorial Day is going to be key. With it being the traditional start of summer season, if there aren't substantial reopening talks/plans by then, the people will make the decision for the government and just start doing whatever they want. 

I think governments have to understand that frankly up to a certain limit people will start to do the personal calculus in their head 

 

If restrictions are going to go into the summer and afterwards I would say that governments would have to become much more authoritarian minded to enforce them.

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1 hour ago, Lordmandeep said:

While I strongly believe in Social distancing and locking down for the short-term to save hundreds of thousands and millions of lives around the world.

 

I frankly think it's unacceptable for World governments to expect people to practice social distancing up to 2022.

 

You're literally telling people to frankly forfeit 2 years of their lives.

They generally don't do that though. I can't think of a single government that has told its people that social distancing might have to be uphold in its entirety until 2022.

 

There are some experts - which isn't the same as the government - who say that there may be some measures which could in some form last into next year, with even fewer suggesting the year afterwards. That doesn't mean that everything will remain in shutdown-mode until then.

 

If someone is saying "don't expect everything to be 100% normal again even by 2022", it doesn't mean "expect everything to remain the way it is right now until 2022", it means "even when things return to a regular life, you still might need to be a bit more careful about some things".

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7 minutes ago, George Parr said:

They generally don't do that though. I can't think of a single government that has told its people that social distancing might have to be uphold in its entirety until 2022.

 

There are some experts - which isn't the same as the government - who say that there may be some measures which could in some form last into next year, with even fewer suggesting the year afterwards. That doesn't mean that everything will remain in shutdown-mode until then.

 

If someone is saying "don't expect everything to be 100% normal again even by 2022", it doesn't mean "expect everything to remain the way it is right now until 2022", it means "even when things return to a regular life, you still might need to be a bit more careful about some things".

 

Thing is govt initially said these measures will last 14 days, now its a month and now will be many months. 

 

The issue is that i dont think most governments know actually what will be the case beyond 2-3 months right now as things are so up in the air. Experts are all over the place. 

 

So we could be back to normal in a few months or we may have travelling,clubs, festivals, parties, big gatherings banned for years, oof. 

 

It will depend on each country, Like I fully expect New Zealand and Australia, Norway and Finland that have things under control reopening soon and just being isolated from the world. 

 

While countries like USA, Spain and Italy and such that cant isolate themselves from the world may have measures for a long time. 

 

 

Edited by Lordmandeep

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New poll on American attitudes toward Coronavirus - let's look at some real data rather relying on just our opinions.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/15/poll-dont-stop-social-distancing-coronavirus-spread-187290

 

More than eight in 10 voters, 81 percent, say Americans “should continue to social distance for as long as is needed to curb the spread of coronavirus, even if it means continued damage to the economy.” Only 10 percent say Americans “should stop social distancing to stimulate the economy, even if it means increasing the spread of coronavirus.” Nine percent of voters have no opinion.

 

By a ratio of more than 2 to 1, voters say they are more concerned about “the public health impact of coronavirus, including the spread of the disease which would cause more deaths,” than they are about “the economic impact of coronavirus including the effect on the stock market and increased unemployment.” Overall, voters break toward the public-health impact, 64 percent to 29 percent — though it’s more narrow among Republicans, 51 percent to 43 percent.

Three in four, 75 percent, say it’s more important for the government to address the spread of the virus, while 17 percent say it’s more important for the government to manage the economy.

 

Voters are skeptical about their fellow Americans returning to work while the virus continues to ravage the nation, the poll shows. Just 37 percent would support allowing some Americans to return to work as long as the virus is still spreading, fewer than the 52 percent who would oppose Americans returning to work under those circumstances. And even fewer, 27 percent, would support allowing Americans under age 45 — who researchers say are less likely to die from Covid-19 — to work while older Americans continue to stay home.

 

But majorities do want returning workers to take significant precautions if they do go back: 76 percent would support their testing negative for the virus before being allowed to work again, 60 percent say they should take an antibody test to determine whether they’ve been exposed to the virus, and 76 percent support workers’ being required to wear face masks.

 

“Public trust in the safety of interacting with other Americans is a necessary precondition for being able to reignite the U.S. economy,” said John Leer, an economist for Morning Consult. “If Americans believe that their eating at restaurants or spending time in an airport jeopardizes their safety, loosening restrictions on businesses is not a sustainable economic solution.”

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US Testing has dropped 30% week over week so far this week,

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/14/coronavirus-testing-delays-186883

 

Morgan Stanley has an analysis of a potential re-start timeline for the US (FWIW this is probably overly optimistic since it assumes 500K testing per week by the end of April and 1M/wk by end of May. It also assumes that widespread antibody testing will be available in early June before the first wave of openings would happen. All of that seems unlikely to me given the current reality)

 

 “Ultimately, we believe Governors will begin considering relaxing social distancing measures once cumulative mortality rates peak, which lags new cases by ~20 days. This means that some resumption in activity will occur in the coastal regional areas prior to the full US peak, followed by other states that have experienced a similar trajectory in peak new cases and cumulative mortality. Ultimately, based on our projections we do not expect to see significant resumptions in activity for ~70 days.”

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Couple of early morning news bites.

Switzerland faces shortages of medicine for coronavirus patients in intensive care unit, the country's health ministry admitted Tuesday, calling the situation ''tense.''

Patrick Mathys, the head of the Swiss federal health ministry resolution team, told reporters in a press conference ''there are real bottlenecks for essential medicines in intensive care'' adding that ''there has been some easing of the situation, but in the long term it's a huge problem." 

Mathys went on to say that the country competes with the international market to purchase more drugs and that the procurement of medicine is equally as challenging as procuring protective masks.

 

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said during an interview Wednesday that the US is seeing a flattening out of new coronavirus cases.

Except for a few cities where cases haven't peaked yet, "there's no doubt what we've seen over the last several days is a flattening out," Fauci said.

"Even when you get to New York, it's actually starting to come down regarding admissions, hospitalizations, needs for intensive care and intubation," Fauci told NBC.

"Hopefully that trend will continue. … As I say, I'm a very cautious person, but we are seeing some light at the end of the tunnel," Fauci added.

 

 

More than 400,000 people could die of Covid-19 in Japan if nothing is done to contain the virus, according to a report released Wednesday by the Japanese Health Ministry and reported by public broadcaster NHK.  

The report also says 850,000 patients would need ventilators.

"If we receive the outbreak without any weapon to protect ourselves, the number of severe cases will exceed existing number of ventilators," Dr. Hiroshi Nishiura said, the head of the panel.

"All Japanese must change the pattern of action and help us to stop this outbreak as soon as possible," he added.

 

Germany's highest single day number of deaths: 285 people died of Covid-19 within 24 hours in the country on Tuesday. However, fewer new infections were recorded than in recent weeks, with cases rising by 2,486.

 

Study rules out coronavirus drug: A French study has found that hydroxychloroquine doesn't help coronavirus patients and was associated with heart complications.

(my comment - given that 2 other HCQ studies have been stopped in the last week due to side effects it seems less likely that HCQ will be a major part of any therapies. Fortunately there are other drugs currently in testing. Hopefully at least one works.)

 

Singapore recorded 334 new cases of the novel coronavirus on Tuesday -- none of them imported -- as the second wave continues to spread through the community.

(my note - almost 1/3 of Singapore's total cases have occurred in the last 3 days and almost 2/3 of their total cases have occurred in the last 10 days. This suggets that future waves are likely no matter how good our policies toward containment are).

 

 

Finland will lift restrictions on movement in its capital Helsinki and the surrounding region, Uusimaa, later on Wednesday, the government has announced.

The government said the legal grounds for continuing to restrict movement "are no longer considered to exist."

"When the travel restrictions entered into force on 28 March, Covid-19 incidence in the region of Uusimaa was increasing significantly faster than in the rest of the country," the government said. "While Uusimaa still has the highest number of Covid-19 cases, the gap with the rest of the country has narrowed.”

Despite the plan to lift movement restrictions, the Finnish government is still advising against all unnecessary travel.

 

The Czech government has announced a further easing of the containment measures it put in place to stop the spread of coronavirus.

Final year university students can return to class next week, and primary schools may reopen at the end of May, the government announced on Tuesday evening.

Starting in June, secondary and high schools can open for one-on-one teacher-pupil consultations. Students will also be allowed to take high school graduation exams and high school entry exams, but schools are not expected to fully reopen until September.

Next week, the government will allow some businesses, including farmers’ markets and car dealerships, to reopen.

Weddings can also take place from next week, provided that fewer than 10 people attend.

Restaurants, pubs and wine shops offering goods for immediate consumption can open at the end of May, if they have an outdoor patio or takeout options.

Museums, galleries and zoos can also open their outdoor installations at the end of May.

In June, retail shops, hotels and other accommodation services will be allowed to reopen.

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8 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Germany's highest single day number of deaths: 285 people died of Covid-19 within 24 hours in the country on Tuesday.

I guess that's just late reporting thanks to Easter holidays; numbers on Sat-Mon were exceptionally low. Same in Sweden for instance.

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9 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

I guess that's just late reporting thanks to Easter holidays; numbers on Sat-Mon were exceptionally low. Same in Sweden for instance.

Agree, it’s the second workday (+/- 1day) after a weekend or a public holiday, when the weekend ~ misses will come up to the counts

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Norway has 6740 cases and 145 deaths

Sweden has 11927 cases and 1203 deaths

 

 

Sweden's plan is a massive failure. 

 

 

Edited by Lordmandeep

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