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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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2 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:

I think my bigger worry with this Virus is that if MERS or Sars spreads as easily as this Virus because those have a death rate of 35% and 10%. 


Within a given family of viruses, there tends to be an inverse relationship between mortality and infectivity, because a disease that makes its patients sicker also reduces their tendency/ability to pass on the disease. MERS tends not to spread very far for that exact reason (it invariably causes very severe illness). SARS, however, we may have gotten lucky with because it started at a time when China was much less interconnected, so its initial spread was slower and was successfully contained. If it were to re-escape from the wild now, we would have an edge because vaccines have been developed since.
 

2 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:

Looking at history there is a lot of evidence of Animal to Human disease spread then a super weapon being leaked


Yes. Most diseases that infect humans have been determined to have jumped from some other animal originally, even diseases that can now only infect humans. This is the probably the case for all infectious diseases, as we're a relatively new species, and both other animals and infectious diseases have been around much longer than us.

There have been several zoonotic (recent animal origin) disease outbreaks in just the past decade or so (Ebola, MERS, avian flu, swine flu etc.). Last bioweapon leak was 1979.

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1 minute ago, Jason said:


Within a given family of viruses, there tends to be an inverse relationship between mortality and infectivity, because a disease that makes its patients sicker also reduces their tendency/ability to pass on the disease. MERS tends not to spread very far for that exact reason (it invariably causes very severe illness). SARS, however, we may have gotten lucky with because it started at a time when China was much less interconnected, so its initial spread was slower and was successfully contained. If it were to re-escape from the wild now, we would have an edge because vaccines have been developed since.
 


Yes. Most diseases that infect humans have been determined to have jumped from some other animal originally, even diseases that can now only infect humans. This is the probably the case for all infectious diseases, as we're a relatively new species, and both other animals and infectious diseases have been around much longer than us.

There have been several zoonotic (recent animal origin) disease outbreaks in just the past decade or so (Ebola, MERS, avian flu, swine flu etc.). Last bioweapon leak was 1979.

 

 

Sars had a very high death rate of 17 % in Toronto so worried if that came back. 

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On ‎2‎/‎6‎/‎2020 at 1:30 PM, DeeCee said:

Moderation

 

 

Regards

BOT Staff

THANK YOU.

That thread is an absolute cesspool, but that serves a useful purpose it quarantines the conspiracy crap in a specific area, and helps keeping it from spilling over to other threads.

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It has sort of hit the fan in the past 24 hours;apparenlty the Chinese Government has been lying quite a bit about the virus.

Surprise, a Dictatorship lies if it thinks something might threaten it's power.

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9 hours ago, dudalb said:

It has sort of hit the fan in the past 24 hours;apparenlty the Chinese Government has been lying quite a bit about the virus.

Surprise, a Dictatorship lies if it thinks something might threaten it's power.

I have been telling you this days and days ago.

 

People growing up in the free world are so naive/innocent that they have no idea what a Dictorship is capable of doing/willing to do just to sustain the regime.

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What is the absolute worst thing that can happen?

 

Edited by charlie Jatinder

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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

What is the absolute worst thing that can happen?

 

who knows ?

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3 hours ago, john2000 said:

who knows ?

Read about the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918/1920.

 

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On 2/7/2020 at 7:20 PM, Jason said:


Within a given family of viruses, there tends to be an inverse relationship between mortality and infectivity, because a disease that makes its patients sicker also reduces their tendency/ability to pass on the disease. MERS tends not to spread very far for that exact reason (it invariably causes very severe illness). SARS, however, we may have gotten lucky with because it started at a time when China was much less interconnected, so its initial spread was slower and was successfully contained. If it were to re-escape from the wild now, we would have an edge because vaccines have been developed since.
 


Yes. Most diseases that infect humans have been determined to have jumped from some other animal originally, even diseases that can now only infect humans. This is the probably the case for all infectious diseases, as we're a relatively new species, and both other animals and infectious diseases have been around much longer than us.

There have been several zoonotic (recent animal origin) disease outbreaks in just the past decade or so (Ebola, MERS, avian flu, swine flu etc.). Last bioweapon leak was 1979.

 

 

https://www.avert.org/professionals/history-hiv-aids/origin

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Conspiracy theory in India said that China was building these viruses for bio-terror/attack in that lab.

 

 

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1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

What is the absolute worst we are expecting? 100mn Deaths? 200mn?

Much less

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5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

What is the absolute worst we are expecting? 100mn Deaths? 200mn?

i seriously doubt that, i doubt that this thing in terms of infective will even hit 1 mill

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20 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Mod Edit:Conspiracy Theory

 

Conspiracy theorists say a lot of stupid crap.

And we have a thread for that stupid crap.

Saying the Chinese govnerment has been lying about the figures is one thing; some BS biological weapon crap is another.

for one thing, the corona virus is a lousy biological weapon;too slow. You want one that would spread and work a lot quicker,

 

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1 hour ago, dudalb said:

for one thing, the corona virus is a lousy biological weapon;too slow. You want one that would spread and work a lot quicker

Wonder how necessarily true it is, historically military weapon often love the slow part and ideally not killing, having the other state having to spend and use resource of the survivors, population and soldiers seeing the injured/sick people around act has a form of terrorism as well.

 

It would not be necessarily aimed against troops (I guess most biological would not) it is against population that they tend to be developed, so how fast you need to be is quite relative here.

 

The plague historically was used for example (looking quick at it, until at least World War 2), can take 10 days to kill.

Edited by Barnack

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Ok, thought this was going to be another SARS and be contained fairly quickly but this is getting a bit scary now.

 

My son wasn't home when a friend called, he's just informed him he's being tested because he was at the Brighton  doctors surgery that has the latest incident in UK.

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The factories my work use haven't re-opened yet and they're nowhere near Wuhan.  We're not expecting them to open again until the end of February. 

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10 hours ago, DeeCee said:

The factories my work use haven't re-opened yet and they're nowhere near Wuhan.  We're not expecting them to open again until the end of February. 

We moved any assembly stuff we had back to the UK last year because of poor quality and IP theft issues.

 

I suspect some of our PCB suppliers still use China but we won't allow it for anything other than generic stuff.

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On 2/10/2020 at 5:13 AM, cJS said:

What is the absolute worst we are expecting? 100mn Deaths? 200mn?

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10937990/coronavirus-infect-60-percent-worlds-population/

 

This is probably the darkest prediction. 60% of the world's population to get infected. Let's say the death-rate remains low at 3%, gives us 3/100 * 60/100 * 7.8b = 140mn deaths. This should be the worst situation, we won't get there tho.

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