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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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11 minutes ago, john2000 said:

wait is there evidence that this will slow down during spring ?

 

Other Coronaviruses like SARS and MERS got more inactive, the warmer and humid the air got. 

So there is reason to believe, that this one might behave the same. No evidence though.

 

Also there are some other factors like UV damaging the virus, more outside activities in summer and overall better health in the summer months, that might push it back. Another thing is that the reach of particles that might contain the virus is slowed down in humid air, so it can't travel as far in that case. 

 

The fact, that countries in the southern hemisphere did not get hit very hard so far might be a sign, that it's true. 

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7 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

 

Other Coronaviruses like SARS and MERS got more inactive, the warmer and humid the air got. 

So there is reason to believe, that this one might behave the same. No evidence though.

 

Also there are some other factors like UV damaging the virus, more outside activities in summer and overall better health in the summer months, that might push it back. Another thing is that the reach of particles that might contain the virus is slowed down in humid air, so it can't travel as far in that case. 

 

The fact, that countries in the southern hemisphere did not get hit very hard so far might be a sign, that it's true. 

lets hope thats the case then

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24 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

"Its just the flu" is quickly becoming my most disliked sentence. Im reading it everywhere in the comments of articles in german newspapers ...

yeah on our discord chat forum its been pretty much people saying its nothing to people going into full survivalist mode 

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2 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

More of a “could be up to this many” than “expect this many in the average case,” as I’m seeing it reported.   
 

Still, the marvels of having an intelligent, pragmatic, and honest leader. Being clear about that upfront is a huge help in taking the right steps at the right time to have it not happen.
 

 

THIS. If the US had a leader people could believe and trust the panic would not be as bad as it is going to be.

Instead, we have somebody who lies,lies,lies about everything. I expect a small amount of lying from any politician, but not about something as serious as this.

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12 minutes ago, BoxOfficeZ said:

 

 

Also apparently E3 in the US is being canceled this year

 

..and probably Sony will present Ps5 without audience, sad but necessary 

 

 

Edited by fabiopazzo2
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4 hours ago, Poseidon said:

Other Coronaviruses like SARS and MERS got more inactive, the warmer and humid the air got. 


There is not clear evidence of reduced transmission of SARS (edit: arguable?) and MERS due to warmer weather. I believe you're thinking of the four coronaviruses that cause colds.

 

Respiratory viruses in general are transmitted more effectively in winter. The reason for this isn't completely clear. It's probably a combination of factors.

 

However, COVID transmission is likely to slow down at best rather than fade away like the flu, because unlike the seasonal flu and cold viruses, there's no inherent immunity in the population. This is probably the main reason why R0 for COVID is currently around 2-2.5 (instead of ~1.3 like for flu), rather than there being something fundamentally different about the virus.

The R0 dropping below 1 is what causes the flu and colds to fade away in the summer - when fewer than one person is infected by every sick person, the total number of infections keeps dropping and dropping. Since the R0 of COVID is higher to begin with, the R0 dropping below 1 is less likely to happen.

cc: @john2000

Edited by Jason
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1 hour ago, Poseidon said:

Well, there's at least this study that came to that conclusion:

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2870397/


My understanding was that with SARS transmission occuring over only the one season, it wasn't possible to conclusively separate the effect of the warming temperatures in the spring from the other interventions occuring at the same time. (I had seen that conclusion offered by an epidemiologist in an article, can't remember where at the moment.)

But I hadn't see the paper referenced above (thanks!). They do attempt to separate the effect, but they also acknowledge the challenge presented by the single season of the SARS epidemic.

I think this part of the discussion addresses the matter very well:
 

Quote

The number of incidences under lower air temperature was 18·18-fold higher than that under higher temperature. The SARS viruses would possibly disappear gradually along with the temperate increase of air temperature in the course of the epidemic in Hong Kong. Hence, air temperature might be a very important factor in the emergence of SARS and its elimination. This might be due to a decrease in resistance to diseases of the respiratory system in a colder environment. In addition, as the outdoor temperature decreases, a warm indoor environment may increase the infection rate if ventilation is poor. In a warmer climate, the agent might not be able to withstand the environmental changes, resulting in the decay of its virulence. Hence, daily SARS cases in Hong Kong might decline gradually with an increase in air temperature and a change of other weather conditions.
 

However, the effect of air temperature may be confounded by other factors. The potential ‘come-and-go’ feature of the coronavirus – with fluctuations in air temperature – is similar to the influenza virus [18]. In fact, new SARS patients have emerged in China since January 2004 [19] – consistent with the potential effect of lower air temperature on the coronavirus. However, a longer history of the SARS epidemic is needed before proper epidemiological estimation of seasonal and meteorological effects on SARS can be made.

 

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ps i like how the media arent saying  that italy cases, decreased by 700, i guess this is not making good headlines

 

 

 

ps  or they are saying that it had 977, but dont show the comparison with the previous day

Edited by john2000
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