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1 hour ago, doublejack said:

I noticed it has been a few days since the IHME model has been updated. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

Anyone else think this is because they are throwing it away and starting from scratch? The longer this pandemic goes, the worse that model looks.

They update it every few days, not every day.

 

And, IMO, the model has been pretty good... for what it was designed to do.

 

 

 

If there is a current criticism of the model that I sympathize with (beyond not being able to tell when states ramp down social distancing), it's that the slope down might be too steep.   But there are historical precedence for that and not just COVID.

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10 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Obviously, did I ever implied that there was any reason to believe any of that ? I was just trying to give my view of what the article quoted was talking about and correcting a straw man that I saw.

 

I am curious when the US intelligence is looking at the possibility that the virus leaked from a laboratory while stating that it was not made in a laboratory, what type of scenario do you think they are talking about ?

 

What according to you is the most probable scenario that the US intelligence are looking at when they talk about investigating if it leaked from a laboratory then ? (I will admit total ignorance here)

Yes.  You re-stated an alternative version of the lab conspiracy going around, that also has no evidence to support it.  The implication that came across from that post was that it was a legitimate source of origin for the virus (which is not at all true, given that current evidence is rather clear that the virus originated from Wet Markets, the unclear aspect was whether it was from bats or if there was an intermediary animal, but that is it).

 

US Intelligence at some point looking into alternative possibilities =\= that the possibility they’re looking into is an at all probable one.  Especially given the statement from the investigation was “inconclusive”.  It could be the intelligence committee covering their bases, it could be an instruction from Trump to investigate given this conspiracy has been his pet theory. This could be especially problematic if those investigations are being done at bequest of a President who is clearly trying to find a way to point as much blame for the problems in the US away from himself.  And just to reiterate again, there is currently no scientific justification for Trump’s claim and that conspiracy theory.

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7 minutes ago, bladels said:

Don't know if it's posted yet. How is this legal?

The Trump administration paid a bankrupt company with zero employees $55 million for N95 masks, which it's never manufactured

https://www.businessinsider.com/fema-paid-bankrupt-company-no-employees-55-million-n95-masks-2020-4

Most countries have placed export bans on companies...China is able to export so far but a ton of their products and equipment have turned out terrible and incapable of working. It's a mess.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Yes.  You re-stated an alternative version of the lab conspiracy going around, that also has no evidence to support it.  The implication that came across from that post was that it was a legitimate source of origin for the virus (which is not at all true, given that current evidence is rather clear that the virus originated from Wet Markets, the unclear aspect was whether it was from bats or if there was an intermediary animal, but that is it).

Every source I have read talked about just the by far most likely explanation but not 100% certain yet if it from wuhan seafood one. The implication wanted to transpire (for someone that would have followed the conversation I think it should have been clear)  a legitimate source of what the US Intelligence could be looking for a possible scenario, can you give a more likely one please ? I will change and edit my  version for it. It seem that without some visual scenario people always bring up something about bats/natural occurrence/not manufactured even when that not what people are talking about.

 

Quote

US Intelligence at some point looking into alternative possibilities =\= that the possibility they’re looking into is an at all probable one.  

Never wanted to imply such thing, it can easily be something has stupid than Trump is asking for it based on nothing. I have the feeling people got into twitter fight (or elsewhere) about this ? And are projecting intention, reading stuff that are not written in some message here (that could explain why people started to talk about some conspiracy about a manufactured virus to a message that never mentioned that, even clearly specific that it was not the case)

 

Quote

And just to reiterate again, there is currently no scientific justification for Trump’s claim and that conspiracy theory.

Never wanted to imply there was any, it was purely responding to the spread of false information about a manufactured virus in a laboratory story people were posting.

Edited by Barnack

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Tests basically flat from yday at 158k. Pos % basically flat as well, slightly up, 19% and change.     
 

The long tail of death suggests that the relatively timid Western lockdowns only get the R down to .7-.9ish, so if they get loosed and it goes up to like, 1.2, with a large population of infected to work with, gonna be bad times. 

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Every source I have read talked about just the by far most likely explanation but not 100% certain yet if it from wuhan seafood one. The implication wanted to transpire (for someone that would have followed the conversation I think it should have been clear)  a legitimate source of what the US Intelligence could be looking for a possible scenario, can you give a more likely one please ? I will change and edit my  version for it. It seem that without some visual scenario people always bring up something about bats/natural occurrence/not manufactured even when that not what people are talking about.

 

Never wanted to imply such thing, it can easily be something has stupid than Trump is asking for it based on nothing. I have the feeling people got into twitter fight (or elsewhere) about this ? And are projecting intention, reading stuff that are not written in some message here (that could explain why people started to talk about some conspiracy about a manufactured virus to a message that never mentioned that, even clearly specific that it was not the case)

 

Never wanted to imply there was any, it was purely responding to the spread of false information about a manufactured virus in a laboratory story people were posting.

I am going to end this conversation here because you are not being consistent.  Your first reply to me was in fact re-affirming the current version lab conspiracy theory.

 

We have stated the most likely scenarios numerous times.  There is a peer reviewed article in Nature that discusses the most likely possibilities of origin that has been cited here numerous times, and has clear methodology (and is not dubious reports about an investigation we have no information on).

 

So please, just drop it, as had already been stated by AndyLL when you recently replied to my post.

Edited by The Panda

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, doublejack said:

I noticed it has been a few days since the IHME model has been updated. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

Anyone else think this is because they are throwing it away and starting from scratch? The longer this pandemic goes, the worse that model looks.

Yeah it was obviously rubbish when it predicted more deaths for the UK than the whole of the USA.

 

UK is down to 23K now, which is in the ballpark of the Imperial model.

 

Also it's predicting 21k deaths in Italy by Aug 4th and they are currently at 22k.

Edited by AndyK
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1 hour ago, AndyLL said:

The WHO cannot just claim their beliefs as fact.  At least not publicly.  Privately I'm sure they could be more direct.

 

Behind the scenes talks are usual for business transaction / offers, power wants, ,... logically also for situations like since ~ around the beginning of this year.

 

How impractical to have killed the position and staff of the unit who then did knew with whom to speak about something like that///

 

I think that is still at least a few days worth of being late. In such a situation hours can count.

 

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12 hours ago, AndyK said:

 

Up to £16million now.

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Brazil’s president Bolsonaro kicked out his health minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

"The President told governors they'll call the shots in their states as he shared guidelines to reopen in phases starting May 1"

 

Like I said. May 1st.

Except that doesn’t mean the country will reopen May 1st. It says it’ll reopen gradually whenever governors decide (going to be later than May 1st in fast majority of cases).
 

like we said.

Edited by Arendelle Legion
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Stitt here in Oklahoma is targeting May 5th opening. 3 weeks.

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5 minutes ago, AndyK said:

 

 

The White House can plan whatever they want. People will be cleverer than that.

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15 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

 

Brazil’s president Bolsonaro kicked out his health minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta

There's always going to be at least one country with a response worse than America...

 

Bolsonaro has had awful approval of late, and considering the health minister had very high approval I'm guessing this is going to just make people hate Bolsonaro more...

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1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

"The President told governors they'll call the shots in their states as he shared guidelines to reopen in phases starting May 1"

 

Like I said. May 1st.

It's not up to him. It's up to the different states alliances that have already formed. NY is not reopening on May 1 for sure. Cuomo already extended shutdown until May 15. 

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Posted (edited)

Well unlike europe, countries like canada and america are vast large countries with huge regional variations.

 

Like western canada has flatten the curve and eastern canada has hardly new cases. So those parts can reopen while central canada will have to lockdown for a long time.

 

 

Issue is they going to have to severely restrict interstate or province travel then.

 

 

 

Edited by Lordmandeep
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https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/trudeau-g7-leaders-affirm-importance-of-who-amid-differences-with-trump/ar-BB12JhhW?ocid=spartanntp

 

Champagne said in an interview that Trump's decision to drop WHO funding was a topic of discussion with his fellow foreign ministers from the alliance. And while they agree that some organizations need reform so that they work better, "now is not the time" to be doing that work.

"The time now is to support these international agencies and the important work that they have to do. There will be a time for us to see how we can look at processes, do a post-mortem and make sure these institutions would really serve the purpose for what they were created," Champagne said.

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1 hour ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Except that doesn’t mean the country will reopen May 1st. It says it’ll reopen gradually whenever governors decide (going to be later than May 1st in fast majority of cases).
 

like we said.

Many will reopen May 1st. Pressure will be massive. Most states will be open by the week after like I said. Coalitions help, of course each will do whats best and it will open in phases. People acted like I was insane for suggesting May 1st would be the push. I think several will wait at least 1-2 weeks longer. Virginia will never wait till June.

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