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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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32 minutes ago, stephanos13 said:

I agree. Only France as far I'm concerned provides the most accurate data.

 

The fact that countries do not include deaths in nursing homes (and cases btw not only deaths) in their official statistics is beyond pathetic.

Sadly, that is true. Right now, I do not know what is happening with Spain's data. Madrid's official data say that 7,000 people have dead, but real data seems to be close to 13,000. Extrapolating, Spain could really be at about 35,000 deaths right now...

 

Edit: Madrid is BY FAR the most affected region, so the lineal extrapolation should not be taken too seriously, but it is obvious that there are more deaths than the official number. Maybe not 35,000, but way more than 20,000 for sure.

Edited by peludo
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6 minutes ago, Killimano3 said:

To be fair, the US people have to option to vote against the government if they cause global economic crises and elect somebody else. In China they just say "Well #rip" and continue being controlled by the same unelected party of all time

 

Not that America does a very good job of electing people of late...

 

That's fair, but when you elect someone like Trump and "America First" it's exactly like asking for trouble and crisis, as we can see today.

In someway it may be even worse as Chinese might be less willing to screw everyone over if they had voting rights.

Edited by Fullbuster
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Regarding sporadic oddities in daily data, I think it’s important to remember all the real-world variables: these are literally bodies stacked in morgues and hospitals and spare rooms, with various public and private organizations, being counted by people who’re tired, overworked, and scared. All that data getting organized and sent to the various authorities who then officially report it... there’s bound to be discrepancies and mistakes. 

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28 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Preliminary results from the Santa Clara antibody test:

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.full.pdf

 

Going straight to the source as opposed to media filters that may or may not be misinterpreting data.

 

From the abstract:

 

This is just one study that has not been peer-reviewed yet, but it's already making the rounds here in California and I suspect it'll break through into the national conversation soon enough.

 

That does seem to me to suggest good news on the lethality front at the very least.  Probably not nearly as good news on the communicability front (I am very prepared to be wrong on that however and welcome feedback on that stance). 

 

Not sure how many of those people in the study reported any symptoms at any time, as all I've read is the front page abstract and I wouldn't be able to glean much from the actual paper, I suspect.

 

I was waiting on those results. That lines up with something I said a week or so ago.  It’s likely no more then 5% of the US population has been infected with the coronavirus. 
 

I just noticed that the deaths in Santa Clara County at 70 are just above the 65 in Australia as a whole.  However, there have been 391,530 tests for 6,526 positives in Australia. In Santa Clara it’s 17,774 tests for 1870 positives. 

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As I think about that preliminary study some more the main problem I have with it is that it wasn't controlled by economic background.  The big red flag I had with it was that it was selected via Facebook and I didn't see any/many controls for economic status.

 

Also did see a bit in there about how some of the people mentioned being symptomatic at one stage, but I didn't see any discussion about the percentage of folks screened who were.  Makes me worried that it was possibly over-sampled in that respect and not truly random.

 

I do have some other concerns, but I'll leave them to the side as I don't want to prejudge conversation over the topic. 

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2 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

California crosses 1,000 deaths. NY is over 17,000. My god, I hadn’t really realized they were up that high. :( 

 

New York is particularly brutal statistically speaking adjusted for population:

 

New York State having 17,000 deaths is like France having 58,000 deaths (instead of 17.9K) and like the US having 287,000 deaths instead of 37k.

If NY was a country it would be the most hit in the world, only Iran could be worse (we know it's been really bad).

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1 minute ago, cax16 said:

original.gif

 

Do they actually want to die?

 

Nevermind the stupid politicans who allowed this reopening. But those people surely had the option to not go to the beach.

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1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

Do they actually want to die?

 

Nevermind the stupid politicans who allowed this reopening. But those people surely had the option to not go to the beach.

I don’t even have words for these people, it’s unbelievable the level of stupidity from not only them but their governor. 

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1 hour ago, a2k said:
Quote

 

The paradox is that when a notion prevails that lockdown harms the business and economy, even without a lockdown, the Swedish economy is already seeing significant effects from the coronavirus outbreak.

 

Lay-offs of workers are taking place at a level dwarfing that of the 2008 financial crisis and the economic crisis of the 1990s.

 

According to the National Institute of Economic Research, the Swedish agency that reports to the finance ministry, its baseline scenario has real GDP growth declining by 3.4 percent this year (worse than the 2.9 percent forecast for the US).

 

Clearly, there is extreme uncertainty about future developments and despite the government's light-touch approach, severe economic hardship is on cards.

 

 

This is interesting, because this goes back to earlier discussion: the apparent fallacy that if we let people go about or return to their normal lives, and not enact strict social distancing policies and other measures, that the economy will go back to normal. On some level, we seem to confuse the economic consequences of our policies with the economic consequences of the virus (and the resulting sickness and death, etc).

 

That previously cited study that suggests earlier and longer social distancing measures both mitigate the spread of disease and reduce the ultimate economic damage in the long run, is particularly interesting in light of the article a2k quoted about Sweden. It will be interesting to see how various countries fare in the long run with this pandemic, and which countries' economies grow faster after the pandemic is over.

 

Peace,

Mike

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19 minutes ago, infamous5445 said:

When is the U.S going to break 100K deaths?

I remember when Donald trump was going on about how it's be "really good" if they kept it down to 100k deaths because the models were predicting lower and he thought he could seem like some genius Savior. Now it's definitely going to be at least that high

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3 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

I didn't want to come back but I suddenly see weird things on Twitter... Florida opening beaches this evening? Trump calling for a civil war during a pandemic? 

 

Is America mentally ill? Is it the fall of America? 

Well they did elect Trump and still support him.  At least 45% are bat shits crazy

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1 hour ago, Fullbuster said:

It's disgusting because it misleads people into thinking 761 people died from coronavirus today in France and that's not true: only 418 did!

So what, they died at one point and there is no reason to hide them entirely.

You're just mad because Macron has been exposed as the Trump of Europe (he wants to reopen schools in three weeks while the pandemic of the century is still near its peak in France).

 

In general it is strange to see many European countries starting to "ease" the lockdowns while the contagion isn't under control at all, no matter what they say. European lockdowns haven't been anywhere as effective as in Wuhan. They stopped the quasi-exponential growth but it can start again if they're not careful.

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