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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I will rather people overreact then only realise the virus is not that powerful than people carelessly, sluggishly take action then only realise it is too late.

Policy wise yeah for sure. I just try to be as safe as I can. I hope all of you do that to the best of your ability and stay safe ☺️

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5 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Absolutely. People are still, unbelievably, asleep at the wheel and in denial! Telling people to panic less is frankly irresponsible. What the world and the US need now is more panic, unfortunately.

Panic causes people to take irrational decisions. For instance people who mass buy soap or toilet paper. To reduce the spread of the epidemic, you need everyone to have some soap available to wash their hands, not 10% of the population hogging all the soap in their homes. 

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1 hour ago, Cynosure said:

I don't like Trump but you really need to calm down with the fear-mongering. We're at 4 500 or so deaths, that's 0,45% of 1M, never mind "millions of people", and the coronavirus has already peaked in several countries.

OK I've changed my mind, it's better that people panic (slightly) rather than believe any of this nonsense until their own town is in lockdown.

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4 minutes ago, Cynosure said:

Panic causes people to take irrational decisions. For instance people who mass buy soap or toilet paper. To reduce the spread of the epidemic, you need everyone to have some soap available to wash their hands, not 10% of the population hogging all the soap in their homes. 

I’m not saying panic is good. I’m saying that current levels are way too low, and it’s leading to a complacency that is even more damaging than overreaction.    
 

We are in an extreme situation. We need extreme measures.   
 

We were in an extreme situation 10 days ago and should have starting taking big measures then, but it was pretty predictable that we wouldn’t and would end up where we are now. Tragically it’s also pretty predictable that we’ll take insufficient measures now and things in 10 days will be disastrous even to those who can’t understand basic growth.

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1 minute ago, MrGlass2 said:

OK I've changed my mind, it's better that people panic (slightly) rather than believe any of this nonsense until their own town is in lockdown.

Well you shouldn't panic even when your own town is in lockdown.

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Covid-19 is a pandemic

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Let's assume a 1.5% mortality rate. I believe that puts America at somewhere between 1.1 million and 2.2 million deaths. Someone correct me if my math is off. This of course isn't just about this next month, but the next year or so.

Edited by OncomingStorm93
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23 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

WHO officially calling this a Pandemic as of today.

Good!

 

You're math is correct. Those figures I imagine are probably over the next 2 years. If correct that's horrible. Low or high end doesn't matter

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1.5% would only happen if ICUs get overwhelmed and people in critical condition are literally just left to die for triage reasons  

 

... which is increasingly likely 😥

Edited by Arendelle Legion
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6 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

Let's assume a 1.5% mortality rate. I believe that puts America at somewhere between 1.1 million and 2.2 million deaths. Someone correct me if my math is off. This of course isn't just about this next month, but the next year or so.

 

It won't be a 1,5% mortality rate. Current mortality rates are overestimated due to the fact that many 

mild cases are not being tested. South-Korea has a mortality rate of 0,6% and even that's probably overestimated. 

 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

 

Going with the figures from this article the real mortality rate is probably between 0,025% and 0,14%. That means between 18k and 140k deaths in the US if 75-100M do indeed catch it. Bad, but hardly worth stopping the world over.  

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