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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Cynosure said:

 

It won't be a 1,5% mortality rate. Current mortality rates are overestimated due to the fact that many 

mild cases are not being tested. South-Korea has a mortality rate of 0,6% and even that's probably overestimated. 

 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

 

Going with the figures from this article the real mortality rate is probably between 0,025% and 0,14%. That means between 18k and 140k deaths in the US if 75-100M do indeed catch it. Bad, but hardly worth stopping the world over.  

 South Korea death rate will go up and they are the outlier

 

Worlds renown expert conservatively indicated this virus is 10x as deadly. That puts it at 1%. I think that .9% or something like that is best case scenario. Our health system sucks ass so we will be above the low end range 

 

Edited by cdsacken

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4 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

7280 positive only in Lombardia.... Jesus 0.0 

i hope thats not one day ? is it ? (you probably mean in total right )

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9 minutes ago, Cynosure said:

 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

 

Going with the figures from this article the real mortality rate is probably between 0,025% and 0,14%. 


How do you draw that conclusion? The article says for countries/regions that are well-prepared the rate will likely be 0.5-0.9% (compared to 3-5% for un-prepared/poorly-prepared areas).

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1 minute ago, john2000 said:

i hope thats not one day ? is it ? (you probably mean in total right )

Total of course! 
:( 

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Cynosure said:

Going with the figures from this article the real mortality rate is probably between 0,025% and 0,14%. That means between 18k and 140k deaths in the US if 75-100M do indeed catch it. Bad, but hardly worth stopping the world over.  

Reading the article they seem to talk a lot about 0.5% when things goes well. 

 

1*OZfW6tNEcArbnBzTXp_zbw.png

Edited by Barnack
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Posted (edited)

Italy numbers coming soon, Lets see if it is more than yesterday or less (it was about 900 cases yesterday)

Edited by Damianport1

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1 minute ago, Plain Old Tele said:


How do you draw that conclusion? The article says for countries/regions that are well-prepared the rate will likely be 0.5-0.9% (compared to 3-5% for un-prepared/poorly-prepared areas).

 

Quote

France claims 1,400 cases today and 30 deaths. Using the two methods above, you can have a range of cases: between 24,000 and 140,000.

Quote

Spain has very similar numbers as France (1,200 cases vs. 1,400, and both have 30 deaths). That means the same rules are valid: Spain has probably upwards of 20k true cases already.

Hence why I mentioned the "true mortality rate". Because it includes asymptomatic cases. 

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2313 new cases in Italy.

 

196 new deaths.

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2331 new cases in last 24 hours in Italy. 196 died. Its not getting any better.

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BREAKING NEWS: 196 deaths more with #coronavirus in Italy in last day, toll at 827 The age ranging from 50 to 95 years old. Overall average of total is 81 years old. In 85% cases each was already suffering of two previous disease

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Already 5,851 cases without China today. Which sets new daily-high. Previous record was yesterday 4543. And still many hours left today... this one is just beginning

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3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

2313 new cases in Italy.

 

196 new deaths.

Oh yeah. Totally peaked.

 

We won't conclusively know the Coronavirus mortality rate until all is said and done.

 

South Korea is an exception, not the rule. Their innovative testing strategy that only Germany has copied (everyone wants to ignore South Korea's brilliant testing when pointing out how well South Korea is handling this, as if South Korea is representative of global efforts).

 

WHO currently says 3.4%. Clearly, it's much lower than that. But Fauci (the only American official I trust at the moment) has made it clear it's around 1%. Not a small fraction of a precent.

 

Something to keep in mind: There is a lag between death counts and cases reported. As we saw in China after they got it under control and the case numbers dropped, the death counts kept up for a bit. So you can expect there to be a slight statistical lag between the cases reported and deaths reported.

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Cynosure said:

Hence why I mentioned the "true mortality rate". Because it includes asymptomatic cases. 

We are use to see mortality rate that do not include the asymptomatic case (seasonal flu for example, the 3-11% that get it and the death rate calculate from it exclude the asymptomatic, where it is more 8% to 20% if you count them) and the world health organization had talk they suspect a much lower % of asymptomatic case than for something with a lot of build in resistance over time like regular flu.

Edited by Barnack

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2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

We are use to see mortality rate that do not include the asymptomatic case (seasonal flu for example, the 3-11% that get it and the death rate calculate from it exclude the asymptomatic, where it is more 8% to 20% if you count them) and the world health organization had talk they suspect a much lower % of asymptomatic case than for something with a lot of build in resistance over time like regular flu.

Sure, but the 75-100M people that will get it in the US most likely include the asymptomatic cases. Therefore you have to use the mortality rate including asymptomatic cases. 

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15 minutes ago, Damianport1 said:

Already 5,851 cases without China today. Which sets new daily-high. Previous record was yesterday 4543. And still many hours left today... this one is just beginning

to be honest , half that are from italy and iran, we still dont know what other countries did today, for the most part

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Hungary:

13 cases total

0 deaths

 

State of emergency from tomorrow

Ban on arrivals from China/SK/Iran/Italy (except Hungarian citizens - they will be quaranteened inmediately)

Universities closed

Indoor events over 100 & outdoor events over 500 participants banned

 

I hope we will be able to stop the spread at least locally. Fingers crossed.

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