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DeeCee

Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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1 hour ago, AndyK said:

At first glance this seems to be 100% crap. I take back my earlier comment. Maybe Sky News UK is just as close to Fox News as Sky News Australia. 
 

@Jason Thoughts?

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36 minutes ago, PDC1987 said:

Even here in Ohio I don't think our "reopening" is going to last very long. The State keeps saying we have "flattened the curve" yet yesterday we had 1,317 new cases, out of 12,919 to date, and it seems our average number of deaths keeps increasing every week.

Just quietly.  That’s not flattening the curve. 

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On 4/18/2020 at 8:25 PM, ElsaRoc said:

Florida is probably going to be very bad in a week or so?

On 4/18/2020 at 8:33 PM, Porthos said:

Florida has been a bit interesting.  It might be spared some of the worst of all possible worlds simply because of its climate (heat and humidity doesn't seem to be COVID-19's friend).  They're certainly not helping their situation, I'll put it that way.

 

But I'm not going to press the doom-n-gloom button either, simply because this is one damn complex situation. Someone like @Jason would probably be better suited to answer that question.


Meant to reply to this earlier, oops. Was reminded during tab-cleanup.

It will probably take around two weeks for us to see whether the reopening of beaches etc. is going to cause a jump in cases. One week is too soon - even though the average incubation time is 5 days, it takes more time for severe illness to develop and for the test results to be confirmed.

Whether that will actually happen I don't know. I'm inclined to say that it's risky (testing isn't adequate, new cases haven't come far down) but far from guaranteed doom as well. As far as I know, the reopenings were for beaches and parks, and even though a lot of people gather there, it's not the worst situation for viral spread. There's evidence to suggest that a major factor in why respiratory illnesses spread less efficiently in summer isn't actually because of the properties of the virus itself, but rather host behaviour - they spread more efficiently in indoor spaces, probably because of closer average distance between people and less air circulation. (and the virus living longer in indoor spaces may play a role as well)

You see people in clusters on the beaches, but those may mostly be people who already reside together - and there's more than 6 feet of distance between those clusters, generally speaking. Long story short, "one damn complex situation" is a good way of putting it, and I'm disinclined to make a prediction either way for what we see in two weeks in Florida.

Edited by Jason
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Frankly I think public transit in NYC is a much more effective spread of the virus then beaches in Florida.

 

Another thing is at a beach, the "Viral load" you would get is much less...

 

Like I do agree on social distancing but I am finding hard to believe a person going on  a jog on a trail is putting society at risk. 

Edited by Lordmandeep
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15 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:

Either people are gaining weight like crazy or been in the most fit shape in years due to the lockdown.

 

 

my treadmill just broke today so RIP my body from here on out.

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2 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

my treadmill just broke today so RIP my body from here on out.

 

Lol I seen people arm lifting cans of paint 😂

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2 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

 

What is even the point of releasing a movie in theaters this year? 

 

In some countries they won't be allowed to be open for months, in others the restrictions will be drastic. 

 

No big BO numbers are possible in these conditions. 

 

 

That's been my position. As far as BO is concerned, 2020 is over. There is really no sense in trying to release, or planning to release, any big budget film this year.

 

Some theaters may open, but many will not. Those that open will have severely restricted seating. Keep in mind that there are still issues with social distancing even with seating limited. People have to use the bathroom. Concession areas are another bottleneck. It's also really tough to eat popcorn and down a coke with a mask on.

 

On top of all that, how many people will be willing to go out and see a movie given the environment? The polling I've seen indicates the answer to that is not many, at most something like 20-25% of the population are willing to resume previous activities. Of those, how many are movie goers? Moviegoers are already a pretty small slice of the populace. Can BO function with a small slice of a small slice? I'm doubtful.

 

Finally, I don't think the small BO numbers possible are worth the risk. I've already verified that legal action has begun against senior citizen homes. People whose parents have caught COVID and died are starting to sue these homes for negligence. Large theater chains would be foolish to not consider the possibility of an employee or customer's family bringing a lawsuit.

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823 new deaths recorded today for UK taking total to 17,400, this is the normal Tuesday bump as the missing weekend counts are leveraged in.

 

Note this is hospital deaths, hard to get totals as the ONS data is running 10 days behind because it has to collate death certificates, the latest figures there are for April 10th.

 

I guess we would need to add 40%.

 

This BBC article has a good overview of the stats...

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52361519

 

Interesting that we also had a bad flu winter with 32,000 deaths recorded, was it really Flu or was Covid around a lot earlier than we thought?...new conspiracy theory coming soon....

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Frankly I think public transit in NYC is a much more effective spread of the virus then beaches in Florida.

 

Another thing is at a beach, the "Viral load" you would get is much less...

 

Like I do agree on social distancing but I am finding hard to believe a person going on  a jog on a trail is putting society at risk. 

Well, joggers have quite the heavy breathing and they tend to sweat quite a bit as well, which, in combination with their speed, leads to quite the spread around them. You'd be more likely to get "hit" by something from them then if someone merely walked past you normally.

 

That being said, the odds of this causing anything should be rather slim. And somebody jogging a trail on his own shouldn't impact many others, especially when compared to crowded public transports or workplaces.

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1 hour ago, DeeCee said:

At first glance this seems to be 100% crap. I take back my earlier comment. Maybe Sky News UK is just as close to Fox News as Sky News Australia. 
 

@Jason Thoughts?


The reporting of the study is 100% crap or real close to it, although the study itself (pre-print, not peer-reviewed yet) is much more careful in its interpretation of the findings.

Finding 19 novel mutations out of 33 total mutations, from 11 samples spread over a month, is not a surprising result. It's in line with what we already know about the mutation rte of the virus.

The more significant finding is that the different viral strains appeared to have different replicative efficiency in vitro. But the Sky News article reports that they were human cells (actually African green monkey), and doesn't make it clear that that study was conducted in cells in a Petri dish, not in vivo. Also, it makes it sound more dramatic than it is by reporting the numerical difference in load without providing context.

The dramatic difference in replication in a cell line is not shocking in itself - a small difference in viral replication rates can add up to a big difference with the unchecked exponential growth that happens in a Petri dish - unlike what happens with cells in an actual organism, where growth is checked by host defences.

The study authors are much more measured in stating the significance of the finding: "our study provides direct evidence that mutations currently occurring in the SARS-CoV-2 genome have the functional potential to impact the viral pathogenicity". (italics my emphasis)

Edited by Jason
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I just learned that my uncle is in critical condition in an ICU and the doctors say he has it. Crazy thing was literally 3 days ago we had a video chat; I told him to stay safe and he said he felt fine. Scary how fast someone can deteriorate. 

 

All I can do is hope. 

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1 hour ago, DeeCee said:

At first glance this seems to be 100% crap. I take back my earlier comment. Maybe Sky News UK is just as close to Fox News as Sky News Australia. 
 

@Jason Thoughts?

You can read the direct preprint here:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20060160v1.full.pdf

 

If they are talking about that one.

Edited by Barnack

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1 hour ago, CoolioD1 said:

my treadmill just broke today so RIP my body from here on out.

You could try...like actual walking.

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1 minute ago, AndyK said:

You could try...like actual walking.

no it's too late i've gained 10 stone since that post.

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+534 deaths in Italy, the decline under European "lockdowns" is so slow...

At least the number of 'New cases' looks a bit better, almost 60% lower than last month (ignoring weekends).

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7 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

+534 deaths in Italy, the decline under European "lockdowns" is so slow...

At least the number of 'New cases' looks a bit better, almost 60% lower than last month (ignoring weekends).

since many victims spend two weeks and more in ICU, death numbers are bound to trail overall cases by at least 1, I'd say more like 2 weeks. First you'll see the percentage of positives / test drop (given adequate testing regime and availability), then new confirmed cases/day and hospitalisations, and only then deaths / day.

 

Also, don't forget that only northern Italy was hit hard in the beginning - it's looking much better now in Lombardy! But the rest of Italy had a later lockdown and will continue to add numbers - it's just more spread-out. The important thing is not to overload hospitals.

Edited by IndustriousAngel
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51 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

 

A republican voter missing free stuff, you can't make this up 😏

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18 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

no it's too late i've gained 10 stone since that post.

We'll have a new planet by the end of the lockdown.

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Just now, AndyK said:

We'll have a new planet by the end of the lockdown.

 

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