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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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19 minutes ago, Killimano3 said:

On the flip side though, it's also a problem of conservatives. They have idolized this culture of "I can literally do and say whatever I want with no consequences" that it eventually leads to radicalized leftists who see the damage lies do to society, and who start believing censorship is a real solution to that problem.

I am not sure how much of this is true, conservatism tend historically to be among the biggest social consequence of speech there is, organised church and parents organisation:

 

https://www.news957.com/world/2019/08/22/church-free-speech-protects-decision-to-fire-teacher/

 

Teacher Fired For Pro-Choice Facebook Posts Sues Catholic School, Citing Free Speech

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/facebook-post-abortion-catholic-teacher_n_5d2894d2e4b0060b11eb335e?ri18n=true

 

https://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2011/01/03/teachers-you-can-be-punished-i

Teachers: You can be punished if you teach evolution

 

And if you live among conservatism you can receive a lot of consequence for what you say.

 

There is a long list of boycott attempt from conservatism group (Nike recently, starbucks, some coffee makers, Keurig ? and so on)

 

They are not like say libertarians (or at least what libertarians which they would be, they too will not be able to not inflict cost to other for their speech, it is just too strong of an human nature).

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4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

The way some people are acting in this thread, you'd think there were massive protests all across the county demanding that America get back to work.

 

There isn't.  Not yet at least.

 

Man bites dog might get on the front page of the news, but that doesn't mean there are a wave of puppy biters out there, just waiting to sweep across the nation.

I remember seeing a tweet a few days ago showing a protest outside a state capitol where it was portrayed as a large event, but in reality there were maybe fifty people at most.

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@Jason @DeeCee Thoughts about antibody supermarket survey coming out of New York today?

 

Little worried about folks self-selecting behavior by feeling well enough to go out.  But it is interesting to see the massive numbers in NYC which does seem to be reflected by the huge outbreak there.

 

(I would point out that it is still nowhere near hear immunity yet in NYC)

Edited by Porthos
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3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

@Jason @DeeCee Thoughts about antibody supermarket survey coming out of New York today?

 

Little worried about folks self-selecting behavior by feeling well enough to go out.  But it is interesting to see the massive numbers in NYC which does seem to be reflected by the huge outbreak there.

 

(I would point out that it is still nowhere near hear immunity yet in NYC)

 

Huh, that's interesting. Looks like I live just outside the danger zone.

Edited by 4815162342
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22 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I am not sure how much of this is true, conservatism tend historically to be among the biggest social consequence of speech there is, organised church and parents organisation:

 

https://www.news957.com/world/2019/08/22/church-free-speech-protects-decision-to-fire-teacher/

 

Teacher Fired For Pro-Choice Facebook Posts Sues Catholic School, Citing Free Speech

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/facebook-post-abortion-catholic-teacher_n_5d2894d2e4b0060b11eb335e?ri18n=true

 

https://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2011/01/03/teachers-you-can-be-punished-i

Teachers: You can be punished if you teach evolution

 

And if you live among conservatism you can receive a lot of consequence for what you say.

 

There is a long list of boycott attempt from conservatism group (Nike recently, starbucks, some coffee makers, Keurig ? and so on)

 

They are not like say libertarians (or at least what libertarians which they would be, they too will not be able to not inflict cost to other for their speech, it is just too strong of an human nature).

Not to mention conservative forces often being the ones driving some of the largest harassment campaigns online.

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36 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I am not sure how much of this is true, conservatism tend historically to be among the biggest social consequence of speech there is, organised church and parents organisation:

 

https://www.news957.com/world/2019/08/22/church-free-speech-protects-decision-to-fire-teacher/

 

Teacher Fired For Pro-Choice Facebook Posts Sues Catholic School, Citing Free Speech

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/facebook-post-abortion-catholic-teacher_n_5d2894d2e4b0060b11eb335e?ri18n=true

 

https://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2011/01/03/teachers-you-can-be-punished-i

Teachers: You can be punished if you teach evolution

 

And if you live among conservatism you can receive a lot of consequence for what you say.

 

There is a long list of boycott attempt from conservatism group (Nike recently, starbucks, some coffee makers, Keurig ? and so on)

 

They are not like say libertarians (or at least what libertarians which they would be, they too will not be able to not inflict cost to other for their speech, it is just too strong of an human nature).

MAGA conservatives aka GOP believe they can say whatever they want and get away with. Punish liberals just not them. Do as I say not as I do just like Trump. The conservative group you are talking about died in 2016.

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If there are gonna be protests against staying at home, I assume it will be more silent and smaller moves instead of the larger protests, so people will be doing things like setting secret appointments for barbers or something like that, or holding a secret party. Most people probably won’t go public to avoid scrutiny from people. 

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1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

While id agree that Fox News and Trump are fueling the fire extremely efficiently, i cant help but blame those americans themselves.

 

I mean, come on. Every human has a brain. America is a free land you can choose what to watch, what to think, say and believe. And these people chose idiocy, pure and simple. Dont blame only the messengers, imo.

There's definitely some cultural differences with America as well. America more than any western country tells children throughout their life that where they live is the greatest place in the world and that they should be grateful for living there. Even when this kind of thing is harmless it leads people to eventually draw various conclusions for their selves like

 

"if America is the perfect then it should never change right?".

 

"If America is the greatest country then that means all other countries are inferior right? And their culture is inferior?"

 

American culture is all about the pride that comes with "being American". Being the greatest country ever. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if that kind of cultural raises people to have huge egos and never accept any belief but their own.

 

I always found it interesting that America, a country so full of evangelicals, is OBSESSED with "American Pride" despite the fact that pride is taught as one of the seven sins.

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1 hour ago, Porthos said:

More on this:

 

 

Don't know where the source paper is, however.

They only have a press release atm: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-statewide-antibody-testing-survey-will

 

I'm wondering if these infected numbers could still be underestimated (assuming that there are almost negligible false positives). I'm hearing reports that many mild cases don't develop antibodies at all. Another reason for underestimation would be that anyone under 18 was excluded from this test. That would mean the IFR that you can can calculate from this test would be way lower if children (who are the least likely to die) were taken into account.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

@Jason @DeeCee Thoughts about antibody supermarket survey coming out of New York today?

 

Little worried about folks self-selecting behavior by feeling well enough to go out.  But it is interesting to see the massive numbers in NYC which does seem to be reflected by the huge outbreak there.

 

(I would point out that it is still nowhere near hear immunity yet in NYC)


Self-selecting behaviour here I think creates more of a risk of undercounting than overcounting, which I think is the preferable error of the two. It would be nice to know if those percent positives are raw numbers though, or adjusted for demographics. (trying to find that out)

Notably though, the IFR of 0.5-0.6% that can be calculated from these results* is consistent with the result from the Gangelt study of 0.4%.

The Gangelt study sampled about 8% of the population of the town (by usual sampling standards, that's huge) and did so via a letter sent to 600 randomly selected households, with 400 ultimately choosing to participate. The high sampling ratio and participation rate are good signs, although I'd guess there's still a risk of oversampling sick individuals since I imagine households with at least one person who thought they may have had the disease being most interested in participating. (Note: they may have taken measures to avoid this, if so they didn't state them in their preliminary description of their methods. A full description hasn't been published or even made available as a pre-print.)

 

The New York result might actually be the most reliable result we have in terms of estimating prevalence; the high rate of infections in New York minimizes the impact of false positives, and the supermarket sampling may actually be the best at avoiding self-selecting bias, from the studies we've seen so far.

*This assumes the confirmed case death count is accurate, which it probably isn't. Based on the NYC excess deaths suggesting an undercount of 60%, this would result in an IFR of ~0.8-0.9%.

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29 minutes ago, Killimano3 said:

There's definitely some cultural differences with America as well. America more than any western country tells children throughout their life that where they live is the greatest place in the world and that they should be grateful for living there. Even when this kind of thing is harmless it leads people to eventually draw various conclusions for their selves like

 

"if America is the perfect then it should never change right?".

 

"If America is the greatest country then that means all other countries are inferior right? And their culture is inferior?"

 

American culture is all about the pride that comes with "being American". Being the greatest country ever. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if that kind of cultural raises people to have huge egos and never accept any belief but their own.

 

I always found it interesting that America, a country so full of evangelicals, is OBSESSED with "American Pride" despite the fact that pride is taught as one of the seven sins.

Soon as you leave the country for a bit you lose all of that. I can't wait to retire in a different country. I am embarrassed, ashamed and humiliated by our country the past the 4 years. When the British laugh at you, you know you are in trouble. USA is not in my top 40 to retire in.

 

I was always been fond of the great people that make up this country and the past greatness of it. However we have become an isolationist country turning our backs on others. What made us great is slowly erroding. 45% of the country is lost probably forever.

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3 minutes ago, Jason said:


Self-selecting behaviour here I think creates more of a risk of undercounting than overcounting, which I think is the preferable error of the two.

Nate Silver said something similar, and I was implying that with my post as well.

 

Kinda crazy to think that a quarter of the population of New York City might have been exposed to COVID-19 (if there is a slight undercount). Even 20% is kinda mind-numbing to think about if we take the percentage at face value.

 

If there hadn't been social distancing or if it had been done a week later, we could have seen a truly catastrophic death toll as it raced through the rest of the city in a very short amount of time, and completely sinking the hospitals in the process.

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6 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

They only have a press release atm: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-statewide-antibody-testing-survey-will

 

I'm wondering if these infected numbers could still be underestimated (assuming that there are almost negligible false positives). I'm hearing reports that many mild cases don't develop antibodies at all. Another reason for underestimation would be that anyone under 18 was excluded from this test. That would mean the IFR that you can can calculate from this test would be way lower if children (who are the least likely to die) were taken into account.


Excluding children from the test would be more likely to result in an overestimation of how many had been infected rather than an underestimation.

The best evidence suggests that children are both less likely to be infected, and less likely to have severe illness, which could result in more false negatives. Therefore, if they were included in the sample, the percentage of positives would be lower.

This would result in a lower estimation of prevalence than the existing results, and therefore a higher IFR.

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41 minutes ago, Killimano3 said:

There's definitely some cultural differences with America as well. America more than any western country tells children throughout their life that where they live is the greatest place in the world and that they should be grateful for living there. Even when this kind of thing is harmless it leads people to eventually draw various conclusions for their selves like

 

"if America is the perfect then it should never change right?".

 

"If America is the greatest country then that means all other countries are inferior right? And their culture is inferior?"

 

American culture is all about the pride that comes with "being American". Being the greatest country ever. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if that kind of cultural raises people to have huge egos and never accept any belief but their own.

 

I always found it interesting that America, a country so full of evangelicals, is OBSESSED with "American Pride" despite the fact that pride is taught as one of the seven sins.

Let's not even discuss gluttony in America lol.

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