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People here keep saying that not all Americans are as bad as Trump and his cult but recent polls still have Trump approval rate in mid to high 40%.

That means nearly half of Americans are either bat-shit crazy or extremely ignorant :apocalypse::apocalypse::apocalypse:

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I’m impressed the journalist, Malcolm Farr, kept a straight face through the whole question. 
 

 

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, bladels said:

People here keep saying that not all Americans are as bad as Trump and his cult but recent polls still have Trump approval rate in mid to high 40%.

That means nearly half of Americans are either bat-shit crazy or extremely ignorant :apocalypse::apocalypse::apocalypse:


I just finished having a conversation with an American I know who defended Trump's comments. He's neither bat-shit crazy nor extremely ignorant, so I'm going to share the conversation to provide some insight.

Someone else brought it up, I said Trump's comments were "incredibly stupid". He said "I saw the video, and only saw something about UV, nothing about disinfectant - and the UV thing was based on research being done by scientists" (lot to digest here, I know - I started trying to find out what he was referring to)

I send him a video, tell him to watch 25 seconds in. His reply "well, he's asking a question", and I'm like "come on, that's an incredibly stupid question to ask". He's like "well, I would have guessed that UV inside the body wouldn't work either, so...". That's when I'm like "I've tried to find this research and I can't find anything". So he tells me that "Dr. Bill Bryant [sic]" mentioned it - I look it up, and of course the study Bryan (acting undersecretary at the DHS, not a doctor, nor a PhD) referred to was for killing the virus on surfaces with UV. So I'm like "yeah, this research is for surfaces, UV light inside the body would of course be lethal".

[Edit: He almost certainly got that misinformation from a Breitbart (very right-wing biased) article that shows only part of the video and misidentified the acting undersecretary  - h/t @Karthik]

He doesn't argue at that point, but the conversation ended up pivoting somewhat and he went after the WHO a bit, where I basically repeated the things I've already posted in here, so I won't repeat that. But he's got this article that slams China and the WHO, from the National Review (generally a right-wing source), and I picked it apart and pointed out the things the article doesn't mention. Again, he doesn't push back, and the conversation moves on amicably.

I know one conversation doesn't say much, this one just happens to be recent and topical. But I've had lots of conversations like this with otherwise sensible, fairly educated Americans, who just have this blind spot with Trump where a) they feel compelled to defend him and b) spent far too much time reading/watching media with a very biased perspective.

There are definitely Trump supporters out there who are bat-shit crazy or extremely ignorant. But there's a great many that I would just describe just as very partisan and misinformed, as opposed to uninformed - i.e. they're not extremely ignorant in general, just on matters relating to Trump, for what that's worth.

Edited by Jason
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5 minutes ago, Jason said:


I just finished having a conversation with an American I know who defended Trump's comments. He's neither bat-shit crazy nor extremely ignorant, so I'm going to share the conversation to provide some insight.

Someone else brought it up, I said Trump's comments were "incredibly stupid". He said "I saw the video, and only saw something about UV, nothing about disinfectant - and the UV thing was based on research being done by scientists" (lot to digest here, I know - I started trying to find out what he was referring to)

I send him a video, tell him to watch 25 seconds in. His reply "well, he's asking a question", and I'm like "come on, that's an incredibly stupid question to ask". He's like "well, I would have guessed that UV inside the body wouldn't work either, so...". That's when I'm like "I've tried to find this research and I can't find anything". So he tells me that Bill Bryan mentioned it - I look it up, and of course the study Bryan (acting undersecretary at the DHS, I had to google) was for killing the virus on surfaces with UV. So I'm like "yeah, this research is for surfaces, UV light inside the body would of course be lethal".

He doesn't argue at that point, but the conversation ended up pivoting somewhat and he went after the WHO a bit, where I basically repeated the things I've already posted in here, so I won't repeat that. But he's got this article that slams China and the WHO, from the National Review (generally a right-wing source), and I picked it apart and pointed out the things the article doesn't mention. Again, he doesn't push back, and the conversation moves on amicably.

I know one conversation doesn't say much, this one just happens to be recent and topical. But I've had lots of conversations like this with otherwise sensible, fairly educated Americans, who just have this blind spot with Trump where a) they feel compelled to defend him and b) spent far too much time reading/watching media with a very biased perspective.

There are definitely Trump supporters out there who are bat-shit crazy or extremely ignorant. But there's a great many that I would just describe just as very partisan and misinformed, as opposed to uninformed - i.e. they're not extremely ignorant in general, just on matters relating to Trump, for what that's worth.

 

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Quote

 

Quote

The death toll in Ecuador during the outbreak was 15 times higher than the official number of Covid-19 deaths reported by the government, according to an analysis of mortality data by The New York Times.

Quote

A staggering number of people — about 7,600 more this year — died in Ecuador from March 1 to April 15 than the average in recent years, according to an analysis of official death registration data by The Times.

I fear that this is the sort of thing that'll happen in a lot of African countries when it finally hits hard

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I'll take complaints about the IHME model a hell of a lot more seriously when the folks complaining acknowledge the uncertainty shaded areas they had (and still have) and stop fixating on one number it popped out.

 

Not even going to point out the models consistently talked about keeping social distancing policies through the end of May and any politician/interest group citing it to change NOW is breaking the model, coz that's on politicians and interest groups.

 

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Posted (edited)

Now the complaint about an asymmetrical curve versus a symmetrical one I do think is right.  It's downward sloping on a slower pace than it rose.  But that also could be because of multiple waves forming in the US at different places instead of one uniform one.  But, again, uncertainty areas exist for a reason.

 

I saw this on Twitter a couple of days ago, and it shows what the IHME (and other) models are up against, even without facts changing on the ground:

 

 

See how that predicted slope is flapping around all over the place at the beginning?  Maybe not the same as this situation, but I think it shows how difficult it is to predict this sort of thing.  And, again, that doesn't get into people changing the very things the model was based on.

 

As it is, the IHME model is currently projecting anywhere from 48,058 deaths (which obviously won't happen) to 122,570 deaths under social distancing conditions through the end of May by the start of August, with its baseline now at 67,641.  Up approx 7k from last week.

 

Model predicted 1924 deaths today with a range of 439 to 5,663.  

Actual deaths today were either 2342 (worldmeter) or 1911 (@COVID19Tracking) 

 

Even the 2342 is not far off the 1924 number (about 20 percent off).  But the IHME model does not take day of week reporting into account, so it is going to over-predict on Sat Sun Mon.

 

Is the IHME model flawed?  Probably.  That's because all of them are flawed.  

Could the IHME model have told people more succinctly to NOT use it to change guidelines now as that would ruin the model?  I suppose, although pols are gonna pol.

Is the IHME model garbage?  Not at all.  All things considered, it's been alight.

 

If I personally had a criticism, it's bolding one number as folks who look at it at a glance see that as an iron clad prediction and not a more-likely scenario.  That is on them and whoever designed their webpage.  So if folks are gonna criticize them for over emphasing one number instead of the range, I'm right there with you.

 

But the rest?  Nah.  Not really.

Edited by Porthos
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1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

(check the date)

TBF, the tweet says drinking bleach and Trump suggested mainlining it. So while pretty good, they actually underestimated Trump's stupidity. Injecting it is more dangerous if we're talking about a set quantity of bleach.

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2 hours ago, Jason said:


I just finished having a conversation with an American I know who defended Trump's comments.

 

*SNIP (to save screen space)*

Motivated reasoning is a hell of a drug, example # 125,544,528.

 

===

 

Do want to pull out one thing to comment on:

 

2 hours ago, Jason said:

I know one conversation doesn't say much, this one just happens to be recent and topical. But I've had lots of conversations like this with otherwise sensible, fairly educated Americans, who just have this blind spot with Trump where a) they feel compelled to defend him and b) spent far too much time reading/watching media with a very biased perspective.

I remember reading once in a SF/F novel a line that has always stuck with me about this sort of thing. 

 

"A ten mile walk into the forest is a ten mile walk out."

(could be slightly paraphrased)

 

It was about a vaguely similar situation where someone was asking for advice from a Stereotypical Wise Elder about how to unlearn all sorts of bad feelings he had about life and the world (said character, IIRC, just had a very bad experience with a cult-like leader).  He wanted to know how he could find the zen-like peace this mentor figure had.  What did he need to do now to get it?

 

And he was told flat out that it would a while to unlearn all the bad mojo he accumulated just like it took a while to learn it.

 

Now this isn't always true in real life. Some people do change like a house of cards falling.  But even then, I've tend to think that there were nagging doubts that were being gnawed away at said cards.  And even if it isn't a total truism (I've never studied psychology so don't take it as any sort of truism), it rings right to me.

 

The attitude of your acquaintance was probably built brick by brick by brick.  Psychologically speaking it's hard to back down from an entrenched position.  That's what I mean about that 10 mile walk I talked about.  Especially if on some level you just know its irrational. Defense mechanisms exist for a reason and all that.

 

Sure, sometimes the wrecking ball comes to smash the bricks to pieces.  Other times?  Well, sometimes folks need to walk out of the forest on their own terms.  If they ever do.

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2 hours ago, Porthos said:

Now the complaint about an asymmetrical curve versus a symmetrical one I do think is right.  It's downward sloping on a slower pace than it rose.  But that also could be because of multiple waves forming in the US at different places instead of one uniform one.  But, again, uncertainty areas exist for a reason.

 

I saw this on Twitter a couple of days ago, and it shows what the IHME (and other) models are up against, even without facts changing on the ground:

 

 

See how that predicted slope is flapping around all over the place at the beginning?  Maybe not the same as this situation, but I think it shows how difficult it is to predict this sort of thing.  And, again, that doesn't get into people changing the very things the model was based on.

 

As it is, the IHME model is currently projecting anywhere from 48,058 deaths (which obviously won't happen) to 122,570 deaths under social distancing conditions through the end of May by the start of August, with its baseline now at 67,641.  Up approx 7k from last week.

 

Model predicted 1924 deaths today with a range of 439 to 5,663.  

Actual deaths today were either 2342 (worldmeter) or 1911 (@COVID19Tracking) 

 

Even the 2342 is not far off the 1924 number (about 20 percent off).  But the IHME model does not take day of week reporting into account, so it is going to over-predict on Sat Sun Mon.

 

Is the IHME model flawed?  Probably.  That's because all of them are flawed.  

Could the IHME model have told people more succinctly to NOT use it to change guidelines now as that would ruin the model?  I suppose, although pols are gonna pol.

Is the IHME model garbage?  Not at all.  All things considered, it's been alight.

 

If I personally had a criticism, it's bolding one number as folks who look at it at a glance see that as an iron clad prediction and not a more-likely scenario.  That is on them and whoever designed their webpage.  So if folks are gonna criticize them for over emphasing one number instead of the range, I'm right there with you.

 

But the rest?  Nah.  Not really.

Yes, the slow decay from peak is probably due to the outbreak spreading out from the epicentres.

 

A good reason why local lockdowns alone are not a good idea.

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35 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'll take complaints about the IHME model a hell of a lot more seriously when the folks complaining acknowledge the uncertainty shaded areas they had (and still have) and stop fixating on one number it popped out.

 

Not even going to point out the models consistently talked about keeping social distancing policies through the end of May and any politician/interest group citing it to change NOW is breaking the model, coz that's on politicians and interest groups.

 

errr... it seems that their model doesn't come close to working.  I spent some time on the wayback machine looking at past data. 

 

The projected peaks were way understated but as their data showed it was wrong it was not adjusted.... it fact the total deaths was actually lowered which means their daily understatement is getting bigger.  Their projects are now over 25% understated.

 

They seem to anchor their dates for all regions on one date.  NY dominated the data at 1st but when NY leveled off their modal 'seemed' to level off everywhere.  That was only true for about a week and now to combination of the other hot spots have made up for NY but their model is not reflecting it.

 

Their peaks seem to be calculated on single day reporting.  We've seen reporting by states is spotty with Tuesday being the biggest makeup day.  NY had a data dump on the 14th which screwed the single day numbers.  They hopefully are calculating on something like a rolling 7 day average but it doesn't seem like it.

 

The assumption seems to be that there will be a peak and then it will go down.  (a bell curve)  However it now looks like Covid with the stay at home still has a RO value >= 1.  NY cases even though they've dropped from their peak have basically stabilized.  They've gone up every day this week since Tuesday.  So while NY may not be curving up any more they are not curving down in a nice bell curve. The path down will be a much lower slope than the curve up.

 

Their modal is predicting less than 1000 deaths per day in a week.  That is not happening.  I just put in the WOM last 7 days avg deaths compared to the prior 7 days deaths

 

2190.143 avg last 7 days

2011.143 avg prev 7 days

 

It's not going to drop 50% in a week.   In fact I'm guessing it'll go up as NY levels off but all the rural areas slowly grow.

 

The model will be a failure well before the lifting of restrictions take affect.  Assuming some states lift restrictions that won't show on the number until the 3rd week of May.  

 

They are predicting <100 deaths per day by then.  We'll be over 1000.  Then it'll rise.

 

 

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2 hours ago, grim22 said:

 

Maybe the world needs an elightened, benevolent authoritarian...and throw these idiots in prison for purposefully fucking things up for everybody.

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I'm headed to bed right now, @AndyLL so I might take this up in the morning/afternoon more fully, but I stress again, in a week they are predicting a range of 200 to 3,600 deaths.

 

That uncertainty cone is there for a reason.

 

As for NY, I would check the week-to-week comparison to see if it has dropped from this point in time seven days ago.

 

===

 

One last bit.  I posted that rolling s-curve graph for a reason.  It showed how the future looking estimates could change as data rolled in.

 

At one point the bolded line for the IHME model was around 80k or so.  Then it rose to 95k.  Then it dropped to 61k.  Now it is rising again.  And, lo and behold look at the following:

 

 

Look at how it kept leaping over and under the eventual line.

 

Maybe that's a bad analogy.  I'm sure some statistician is looking at it and shaking their head as I make it.  But, well, the IHME line HAS been jumping up and down and I'm showing a plausible reason.

 

(none of this of course gets into the model being thrown out of whack if folks purposefully break it by no longer abiding social distancing measures)

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11 hours ago, Plain Old Tele said:

I’ve lived in the US all my life. Never owned a gun or felt any urge to buy one.

I am fully aware about a lot of Americans not owning a gun, just to give an idea about why some new Americans might own one beside getting it gifted:

cultural shock

Including how intrusive the advertising is allowed to be in the US, how manipulative,... there are people that get presented statistics out of a certain area, a certain time like it is counting for another area too, compare directly products in a not realistic way,...

All that would get slammed down here in minutes, better said not even possible to get screen times for it, telephoned advertisement is forbidden completely, advertisement people are not even allowed to enter a store for anything else as buying items.

 

And lots of other reasons a new American could get overwhelmed, feel very insecure in the new surrounding.

 

6 hours ago, Killimano3 said:

Trump would claim victory if 300 million people died 

 

Sadly I think that might even be true (wont happening with the actual crisis obviously), but I think if it would get that bad, ‚someone‘ would take over long before that count would happen.

 

12 minutes ago, Noctis said:

Maybe the world needs an elightened, benevolent authoritarian...and throw these idiots in prison for purposefully fucking things up for everybody.

 

An altruistic mind reading able Alien would probably throw at once a lot of people worldwide in retraining programs.

Including to retrain for: pro equality, pro respect, way less drama, way less greed for power/influence/money.... What might also be the end of some tele-churches... And how to raise children without damaging them.

 

I think at least 25% of those never being investigated would end in jail for a time at least for thieving, rape, abuse, and worse, all gender, all teen and adult age groups. That includes badly advising bank people who cause knowingly e.g. elderlies to loose money to the gain of other people/companies/banks, overstepers at parties,...

 

And than add general ‘enlightenments’ like e.g. to steal a reputation is still stealing and worse, to ... is still ...

 

And humankind would fight till the end against all that. Especially the ones who love to start the fires.

 

 

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https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/22/africa/coronavirus-famine-un-warning-intl/index.html

Coronavirus pandemic will cause global famine of 'biblical proportions', UN warns.

UN shared this report two days ago, and no one seems to care or take it seriously, they are too occupied with their usual trivial issues. Many of the poorer countries rely on imports of foods from richer countries. Several countries have already banned exports of food to secure the needs of their own population, other countries will follow. UN warns of around 1 billion people will be on the brink of starvation if we don't act soon, using the term "biblical proportions" to emphasize its importance. 

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lol.....did trump really tell people to inject a disinfectant........lol

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