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13 minutes ago, Jason said:

I agree with most of the above. It's certainly true there are deep underlying problems in the US that pre-date Trump, including the lack of universal healthcare, and the weak social safety net. But when you consider how rapidly the CDC and FDA responded to produce and approve tests in response to infections such as swine flu, Ebola, and Zika, it's clear that the US was much better prepared prior to the Trump administration. I don't think it's hard to draw a line of causality between Trump and the botched response of various parts of the US government.

Job Vacancies and Inexperience Mar Federal Response to Coronavirus (NYT)
 

 

The methods being followed in East Asia are exactly how epidemiologists are taught to respond to a pandemic. Epidemiologists, largely from Western countries, and trained in those methods, have used them to contain and then eradicate epidemics of many diseases, going back decades - usually in the developing world. The problem is the first step is identifying infected individuals - made more difficult for COVID-19 by asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission. Testing makes it possible to do so, and Western countries simply weren't prepared to do that. That isn't because of poor advice from epidemiologists. It's because good advice has largely been ignored for a long time.


Perhaps the most disappointing thing in this was that just a few years ago the United States actually was much better prepared, as aforementioned.

 

I would not describe the strategy of European countries as exactly the same, especially when you consider implementation. The Korean strategy also involved very through testing, even of asymptompatic contacts, anyone with symptoms regardless of known contact, and widely available testing in areas where community spread was believed to be plausible. The first step of the contact-tracing strategy is identifying cases, and that's where Europe failed, along with Canada and the US.

It failed due to a lack of testing kits.

 

 

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1 hour ago, AndyK said:

Should also note that most European countries, including the UK, started with exactly the same contact tracing strategy as South Korea, and it failed.

Why would you state that? In UK, they stopped contact tracing (I think in early March iirc) but here in Austria, contact tracing has been at the core of the response. That was really important since there weren't enough tests availabe throughout March for widespread testing. So, instead of testing, they just put all contacts to confirmed cases they could trace into a 14-day quarantine (my son among them). I think that was the main reason Austria managed to flatten the curve as effective as it did.

 

btw, my son's still untested ... now that enough PCR tests are available, they do widespread tests in geriatric wards, hospitals etc. (my wife got tested yesterday), wouldn't make sense for my son - he'll get an antibody test next week.

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34 minutes ago, AndyK said:

Hydrogen peroxide is an effective bleaching agent and it kills most germs including virus.

 

You can buy it as a mouthwash and a great side effect is nice white teeth.

 

Mod ETA:

 

No.  The stuff you're referring to is so so so so so so diluted it's not the same thing.  We do not encourage ANYONE to put ANY chemicals in their bodies.  This is L I T E R A L L Y one of the first things we teach children.  No.  

Lol I googled Hydrogen Peroxide because I wasn't sure if you were talking about Listerine or something and the first thing that popped up as I was typing it in was "DOES HYDROGEN PEROXIDE CORONAVIRUS?!"

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Killimano3 said:

Lol I googled Hydrogen Peroxide because I wasn't sure if you were talking about Listerine or something and the first thing that popped up as I was typing it in was "DOES HYDROGEN PEROXIDE CORONAVIRUS?!"

colgate-peroxyl-mw.png.rendition.300.300

 

Good stuff, been using it for years, bit pricey though.

Edited by AndyK

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Hydogen Peroxide is cheap (you don't need a brand, you can get it at every drugstore) but the stuff you get is usually a 3% solution which you should FURTHER thin 1:10 to a 0,3% solution when using it as a mouthwash. (If you got a sore gingiva, you can apply it undiluted (as a 3% solution) with a brush on small areas. You NEVER should drink the stuff and you should also keep it generally away from the interior of your body - you may sterilise small wounds with it, but nothing bigger - the thing foams like crazy and there's serious danger of embolies when it gets into your blood circuit.

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45 minutes ago, AndyK said:

It failed due to a lack of testing kits.

 

 

Did you not just read @Jason’s post?  If you did, how does restating this claim without anything else to it offer anything of substance to the conversation other than being dense?

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23 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Did you not just read @Jason’s post?  If you did, how does restating this claim without anything else to it offer anything of substance to the conversation other than being dense?

You are correct although a trifle rude, it was a lack of contact tracers.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Jason said:

The methods being followed in East Asia are exactly how epidemiologists are taught to respond to a pandemic. (...) Testing makes it possible to do so, and Western countries simply weren't prepared to do that. That isn't because of poor advice from epidemiologists. It's because good advice has largely been ignored for a long time.

That is true, but what to do when containment fails, for whatever reason (lack of preparation, dismissal of scientific advice and WHO warnings, laziness...)? The textbook seems to say:

Containment -> Mitigation, i.e. "herd immunity strategy".

 

Now, this is viewed by some European epidemiologists as a "Chinese invention":

Containment -> Lockdown -> Containment.

 

As trying the "herd immunity strategy" against the novel coronavirus led to an appalling death toll and a breakdown of the health care system in the US and some European countries where containment failed very badly, it now looks like their response will end up looking like this:

Containment -> Mitigation -> Lockdown -> Containment.

 

It remains to be seen if this is a viable solution, and some epidemiologists don't believe in it. They still want to slowly infect almost everyone, they view this approach as the only "serious", "scientific" way out of a pandemic.

(perhaps business-friendly too, especially if you are a doctor who has started his own company to sell serological tests)

 

And of course for some, herd immunity was the preferred solution in the first place:

 

 

Edited by MrGlass2
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Porthos said:

I could have sworn we had a dedicated topic for the Trump v Biden election

Dude it's impossible considering how partisan a pandemic killing 50000 onto 100k soon is. Is that sad, ridiculous and pathetic? Yes but so is our country 

 

I long for a boring president who can at least make a country not an international embarrassment. I crave to feel the patriotic fervor that I once felt. God bless what America used to be and I hope it gets back to that someday.

Edited by cdsacken

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1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

Dude it's impossible considering how partisan a pandemic killing 50000 onto 100k soon is. Is that sad, ridiculous and pathetic? Yes but so is our country 

Except the discussion was about the Democratic primary. Mods have already told us that doesn't belong here. ;)

 

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US officially has its highest daily confirmed cases yet today with almost 36,000

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Why the huge number in Spain today? Makes me sad to see it jump when things had been trending down.

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15 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

That is true, but what to do when containment fails, for whatever reason (lack of preparation, dismissal of scientific advice and WHO warnings, laziness...)? The textbook seems to say:

Containment -> Mitigation, i.e. "herd immunity strategy".

 

Now, this is viewed by some European epidemiologists as a "Chinese invention":

Containment -> Lockdown -> Containment.

 

As trying the "herd immunity strategy" against the novel coronavirus led to an appalling death toll and a breakdown of the health care system in the US and some European countries where containment failed very badly, it now looks like their response will end up looking like this:

Containment -> Mitigation -> Lockdown -> Containment.

 

It remains to be seen if this is a viable solution, and some epidemiologists don't believe in it. They still want to slowly infect almost everyone, as it is the only serious, scientific way out of a pandemic.

 

And of course for some, herd immunity was the preferred solution in the first place:

 

 


I think you're focusing too much on what a minority of epidemiologists have proposed. From the article above, for example:

Quote

The approach has sharp critics. Among them are 22 high-profile scientists who last week wrote in the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter that the public-health authorities had failed, and urged politicians to step in with stricter measures. 


The majority of advice that I've seen has been to bring down the caseload and increase testing so that contact-tracing and isolation of infected individuals can be implemented. Some governments are succeeding at following that advice, others have announced their intent to follow that advice but haven't been able to increase testing capacity yet.

Sweden is in a minority for actually adopting herd immunity as a policy - in most of the countries where the virus spread out of control, "herd immunity" was never actually adopted as a strategy, rather the governments just failed miserably at their intended goal of containment, due to aforementioned lack of testing. The response of lockdowns happened precisely because "herd immunity" wasn't the strategy.

Even in the UK, the advice from the scientists wasn't actually to allow herd immunity to be achieved via natural infection - although the communication from the government was very poor, perhaps because some government officials (perhaps willfully) misunderstood the advice.

I think it's worth mentioning that most of the time when epidemiologists are talking about herd immunity as ending the pandemic, they are referring to achieving it through vaccination.

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1 minute ago, K1stpierre said:

Can we please get this emoji face on here?! :rofl: 

 

 

cddc98fc-2695-4174-a01e-6e5808.jpg 

 

 

Seriously. This is a look that screams "how did my life come to this?!"

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(right click on the image to make it more legible)

((read from bottom to top))

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