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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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53 minutes ago, FilmBuff said:

Why the huge number in Spain today? Makes me sad to see it jump when things had been trending down.

 

 

There seems to be something off with those numbers over at Worldometer.

 

It looks like they changed how they report antibody testings. Until yesterday, they reported 2 different kinds of antibody tests. They put them together in todays reports as a cumulative number. That number is 16774. Paired with the 202990 tested with PCR that's a total of 219.764. That's 5229 cases more than yesterday.

 

 

As an addition: Those antibody tests started to flood the statistics about a week ago, so they should be seen as an unreliable addition to the PCR method. Via PCR method, there were about 2800 new cases since yesterday.

 

I've yet to research the purpose of those antibody tests. The governments seems to have given houndreds of thousands out it seems, but as my spanish is non-existant, it's tough to get behind it. Is it part of a study or are they really trying those quick antibody tests experts seem to slam left and right?

 

who knows, but one thing is sure: It's not getting worse because of those recent numbers. They are just different.  

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On this ANZAC Day the ANZAC spirit lives on. 
 

Vanquish the Virus? Australia and New Zealand Aim to Show the Way

The two countries, led by ideological opposites, are converging on an extraordinary goal: eliminating the virus. Their nonpolitical approach is restoring trust in democracy.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/australia/new-zealand-coronavirus.html?searchResultPosition=4

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6th day in a row with single-digit new cases here in Hawaii.  Hope it stays that way.

 

 

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

Pivoting slightly because it is interesting.

 

Pres Trump isn't the only one out there promoting dangerous quackery. 

 

 

 

WTF.  As someone who works with children with autism, that really breaks my heart.  

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This is the Buzzfeed link, BTW:

 

Josh is of course offering his opinion of the piece, but it really isn’t a good look IMO after scanning the article.

 

I checked out the tweet chain I posted above as well, and like I said, Professor Bergstorm is NOT happy with the study right now.  Not one little bit.

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So...

 

Wasn't a fan of existing charts of cases/deaths because the daily reporting jumps so much.  So I entered all the data (worldometers.info) and smoothed it.  To smooth it each day is the 7 day average of the previous 7 days.  It makes it easier to see the trends.

 

Daily Cases - NY peaked around 4/10 - 4/12 so that is the dip but you can see it's creeping up.  

 

KQHNRbm.png

 

Same with deaths.  We're dipping down now because of NY but I'm guessing it'll start increasing again.

 

woqkLX4.png

 

The next week will be interesting.

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2 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

So...

 

Wasn't a fan of existing charts of cases/deaths because the daily reporting jumps so much.  So I entered all the data (worldometers.info) and smoothed it.  To smooth it each day is the 7 day average of the previous 7 days.  It makes it easier to see the trends.

 

Daily Cases - NY peaked around 4/10 - 4/12 so that is the dip but you can see it's creeping up.  

 

KQHNRbm.png

 

Same with deaths.  We're dipping down now because of NY but I'm guessing it'll start increasing again.

 

woqkLX4.png

 

The next week will be interesting.

Financial Times does those charts everyday. Also for regional and sub-regional areas. 
 

 

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Just got back in.

 

So what's the big deal about that selection process for that Standford antibody test?  Well, like I said, it set Carl Bergstrom off something fierce.  He quote tweeted someone who spelled out the ethical concerns that were raised:

 

 

To sum up:

 

 

 

==

 

For folks who didn't click on the Buzzfeed story, here is the email that is being talking about:

 

Quote

A Stanford University professor’s wife invited parents in a wealthy enclave of Northern California to sign up for her husband’s coronavirus antibody study this month, falsely claiming that an “FDA approved” test would tell them if they had immunity and could “return to work without fear,” according to an email obtained by BuzzFeed News.

 

The email, sent to a listserv for Ardis G. Egan Junior High School in the city of Los Altos on Thursday, April 2, advertised a study set to begin the next day. With the subject line “COVID-19 antibody testing - FREE,” the email described how participants could gain “peace of mind” and “know if you are immune.” The results would help researchers calculate the virus’s spread throughout the surrounding county of Santa Clara, according to the message sent by Catherine Su, a radiation oncologist married to Jay Bhattacharya, the Stanford professor of medicine leading the study.

Quote

The email reveals that the researchers did not disclose another way participants were recruited that could have further skewed the results. In addition to targeting a specific demographic of parents in a wealthy part of Silicon Valley — making it even less likely that the participants represented a random sample — the email falsely claimed that the study’s antibody test was FDA approved, and was worded in a way that might have disproportionately attracted people who had previously been sick. It also misrepresented what participants could learn about their health from the testing.

 

Given how new this coronavirus is, scientists do not definitively know how long antibodies can protect you from getting sick again. Yet Su’s email stated: “If you have antibodies against the virus, you are FREE from the danger of a) getting sick or b) spreading the virus. In China and U.K. they are asking for proof of immunity before returning to work. If you know any small business owners or employees that have been laid off, let them know -- they no longer need to quarantine and can return to work without fear.”

 

Her husband tries to claim he knew nothing about the email, and that steps were taken to via weighting to try to get a more demographic based sample, but... 

 

Ugh.  I can see why a professor who has an upcoming book called "Calling Bullshit' (which talks about "skepticism in a data driven world") might be a bit put out.

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7 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

So you're telling me I wasted my time. :mellow:

 

I preferred your linear chart to the FT log scale in this case. I saw worthwhile pros and cons to the log-scaling when we were in the near-exponential ramp up portion of the sigmoid, but the degree to which log-scaling remains ubiquitous even though most regions of interest now have very small 2nd derivatives is annoying. It reduces the amount of visual information in the portion of the graph where you want it most (the present).

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3 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I preferred your linear chart to the FT log scale in this case. I saw worthwhile pros and cons to the log-scaling when we were in the near-exponential ramp up portion of the sigmoid, but the degree to which log-scaling remains ubiquitous even though most regions of interest now have very small 2nd derivatives is annoying. It reduces the amount of visual information in the portion of the graph where you want it most (the present).

Yeah... I agree and having the data in excel means I can play around with ti.

 

However I noticed the John Hopkins data is available to download and I could have saved a ton of time.

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1 hour ago, a2k said:

India, new cases last 10 days:

1408 - Fri, April 24

1667

1290

1537

1235

1580 Sun

1370 Sat

920

1059

881

I think we will hit the peak in mid May. Even after such a strict lockdown there is no sign of slowing down. 

We can't extend lockdown after May 3 otherwise India will crumble. 

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