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New Castle County government is dipping into local sewers for new estimates of how prevalent COVID-19 is in Delaware's most populous county. 

 

Last week, county officials sent a sample of raw sewage from the Wilmington Wastewater Treatment plant on 12th Street to a Massachusetts Institute of Technology startup. There, they compared the prevalence of genetic fragments from the virus in fecal matter against local population data and sewage flow rates – all in an effort to estimate how many people may have the virus. 

 

The company's analysis estimated that 15,200 people – 3 percent of the population north of the Chesapeake & Delaware Canal – had the virus as of April 14. That number is approximately 15 times the laboratory-confirmed cases in the county as of the sample date. 

Well, that's one way to do it, I suppose.

 

===

 

FWIW, that 15x seems to be broadly in line with the 10x to 20x expectations for the undercount that seem to be going around.

 

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In Manaus, the biggest city in the Amazon, officials said a cemetery has been forced to dig mass graves because there have been so many deaths. Workers have been burying 100 corpses a day — triple the pre-virus average of burials.

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So far, the health ministry has confirmed nearly 53,000 COVID-19 cases and more than 3,600 deaths. By official counts, the country had its worst day yet on Thursday, with about 3,700 new cases and more than 400 deaths, and Friday was nearly as grim.

 

Experts warned that paltry testing means the true number of infections is far greater. And because it can take a long time for tests to be processed, the current numbers actually reflect deaths that happened one or two weeks ago, said Domingos Alves, adjunct professor of social medicine at the University of Sao Paulo, who is involved in the project.

 

Referring to Brazil ^^^

 

We've known for a while that even in the richer countries in Europe and North America that deaths are likely higher than official totals but with this news and that from countries like Peru and Ecuador it's seeming likely in developing countries that death totals are likely entire orders of magnitude greater than official totals simply because they don't have the ability to test.

Edited by Killimano3
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Interesting idea for the post-control world (for how to prevent a 2nd wave in fall/winter):

https://www.tt.com/artikel/16891479/liechtenstein-ein-ganzes-land-wird-zum-corona-labor

 

The idea is to spread those bracelets throughout a certain percentage of the population. They record pulse, temperature, breathing speed ... those are NOT tracking devices; they are worn only by night and charged by day. I don't know how specific you can make those but anyway you get an early warning as soon as respiratory diseases are on the rise again, so you can follow up with more specific tests.

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29 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

California joining Georgia and Florida , letting people go wild at the beach. If this is allowed, why stop people from working, seems odd

 

Tens of thousands of Californians escape their homes to open beaches during a heatwave despite Gov. Newsom's pleas for them to stay home as state reached 40,000 cases

Doesn't sound like California "let them" so much as they "weren't supposed to be going but they ignored that and went anyway"

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9 hours ago, Jason said:

I agree with most of the above. It's certainly true there are deep underlying problems in the US that pre-date Trump, including the lack of universal healthcare, and the weak social safety net. But when you consider how rapidly the CDC and FDA responded to produce and approve tests in response to infections such as swine flu, Ebola, and Zika, it's clear that the US was much better prepared prior to the Trump administration. I don't think it's hard to draw a line of causality between Trump and the botched response of various parts of the US government.

Job Vacancies and Inexperience Mar Federal Response to Coronavirus (NYT)
 

That incl especially the 2018 folding into detail, is exactly what I try to convey since early on. 

Not one of those has the experience, knowledge,... and probably not the character strength to acknowledge their inability to let others do their job, to be open to interact with specialists no matter the political views or if they get the respect of those specialists,.... to even know with whom to speak, who are even the ones in the know at other countries or organisations in the US or outside the US (let alone the ability to manage such a crisis), let alone in their own departments.

In every organisation, country,... are people who sit in their position for political reasons or to do political similar work, and then there are the people who are the ones to ask, if you need an answer for a real problem, the practical/scientific/.... side of their work.

There seems to be only one job requirement, if a new one gets the job: being a big mouthed supporter of the political leader.

 

 

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My uncle passed away yesterday. He was put on a ventilator but had to be taken off. 

 

You don't need to visit a fucking barbershop or nail salon. Let it wait. Don't kill people with seemingly casual visits jesus christ. 

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2 hours ago, Killimano3 said:

Doesn't sound like California "let them" so much as they "weren't supposed to be going but they ignored that and went anyway"

Yes but why are the beaches open?? Why are there no sanctions for going out without a good reason? The US still records around 30k new daily cases. That's a huge number. It simply doesn't make sense to me. 

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3 hours ago, Killimano3 said:

Doesn't sound like California "let them" so much as they "weren't supposed to be going but they ignored that and went anyway"

From the article:

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California's beaches are under a patchwork of state and local jurisdictions, which means some have remained open while others were shut. Los Angeles County closed all its beaches - including parking lots, bike paths, showers and restrooms - during the coronavirus outbreak, but leaders in neighboring Orange County voted to keep some open.

 

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Different geographic regions that are not badly affected by the virus will start to complain about why they're being under restrictions.

 

I know this would be hard to implement but perhaps we have to put restriction Within States and provinces about travelling rather then locking everyone down? Like have different zones?

 

Like there's a huge danger of people from Toronto escaping to small towns in Ontario to go to their Cottage as the weather gets better.

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35 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Different geographic regions that are not badly affected by the virus will start to complain about why they're being under restrictions.

 

I know this would be hard to implement but perhaps we have to put restriction Within States and provinces about travelling rather then locking everyone down? Like have different zones?

 

Like there's a huge danger of people from Toronto escaping to small towns in Ontario to go to their Cottage as the weather gets better.

Would there also be a way to isolate just older people and keep them under lockdown while having people below 50 go back to work? Like how would they go on ahead with doing something like that? 

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I understand if people are itching to get back to work because they are struggling just to get by, since the US government has done such a terrible job of taking care of its residents during this crisis (a one-time $1,200 payment will not last long, especially in places like Hawaii where rent and the cost of living are sky high).  

 

But people protesting because they can't wait to dye their hair or get their favorite ice cream?  Fuck outta here.  

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14 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Would there also be a way to isolate just older people and keep them under lockdown while having people below 50 go back to work? Like how would they go on ahead with doing something like that? 

That's what Sweden tries to do. Seems not to be working 100% though.

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but the thing is states in America or Provinces in Canada are the size of whole European nations.

 

The issue having internal restrictions does work... PEI has no new cases in a week. 

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Hong Kong’s top epidemiologist has warned against easing lockdowns in Europe, saying “you need a sledgehammer” to bring down the rate of infections before reopening society.

 

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DER SPIEGEL: Should we aim to eliminate the virus?

Leung: No, we are not talking any more about having zero cases. Containment has failed everywhere. What we need is suppression, or better: cycles of suppression and lift, probably many of them. Can we go a little less than total lockdown and allow the economy to come back a bit? The answer is yes. But there are prerequisites. No. 1: Your population is already at a low or acceptable baseline in terms of the daily number of new patients. Prerequisite No. 2: You would need to do a lot better on testing and tracing.

...

DER SPIEGEL: Is the number of beds the most important factor?

Leung: No, there should be more criteria. What is society ready to accept in terms of the number of people infected and hospitalized and the number of people who need to be ventilated and may die? There has to be an implicit or implied social acceptance.

...

Here’s what you need to do: You need to reduce Rt to much below 1 for a long period, so you bring down the number of new cases to say 20 per day. Then you can have Rt of 1 and have 20 new cases everyday ad infinitum, which is what you can deal with. You have to find out at what level you want to maintain an Rt of approximately 1 or just under 1.

...

DER SPIEGEL: Should young people be allowed to more exposure?

Leung: Trying to be too clever by half in terms of trying to expose people who are at lower risk in order that they could use herd immunity to protect other people at higher risk -- I think it is not going to work. Unless you have a very, very compliant population and you have a very targeted, almost military precision in how you think people are going to behave.

 

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9 hours ago, Killimano3 said:

 

Referring to Brazil ^^^

 

We've known for a while that even in the richer countries in Europe and North America that deaths are likely higher than official totals but with this news and that from countries like Peru and Ecuador it's seeming likely in developing countries that death totals are likely entire orders of magnitude greater than official totals simply because they don't have the ability to test.

 

I live in Manaus and it is a chaos indeed here, they're basically doing only 400 tests per day, and the population isn't giving a fuck about the quarantine, it is way worse than what we saw in Lombardia. 

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4 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

 

I live in Manaus and it is a chaos indeed here, they're basically doing only 400 tests per day, and the population isn't giving a fuck about the quarantine, it is way worse than what we saw in Lombardia. 

 

I have Brazilian users on our discord chat and they still going to the beach and clubs 

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