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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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12 hours ago, Plain Old Tele said:

We are now almost six months into this pandemic, which began in November in Wuhan, with 50,000 Americans dead and 200,000 more around the world. If each of those deaths is a data point, together they represent a quite large body of evidence from which to form a clear picture of the pandemic threat. Early in the epidemic, the coronavirus was seen as a variant of a familiar family of disease, not a mysterious ailment, however infectious and concerning. But while uncertainties at the population level confuse and frustrate public-health officials, unsure when and in what form to shift gears out of lockdowns, the disease has proved just as mercurial at the clinical level, with doctors revising their understanding of COVID-19’s basic pattern and weaponry — indeed often revising that understanding in different directions at once. The clinical shape of the disease, long presumed to be a relatively predictable respiratory infection, is getting less clear by the week. Lately, it seems, by the day. As Carl Zimmer, probably the country’s most respected science journalist, asked virologists in a tweet last week, “is there any other virus out there that is this weird in terms of its range of symptoms?”

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/we-still-dont-know-how-the-coronavirus-is-killing-us.html

Read this....

 

https://www.hsj.co.uk/acute-care/exclusive-national-alert-as-coronavirus-related-condition-may-be-emerging-in-children/7027496.article

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Oxford Leaps Ahead on Coronavirus Vaccine

 By  69 Comments

 

New York Times: “Most other teams have had to start with small clinical trials of a few hundred participants to demonstrate safety. But scientists at the university’s Jenner Institute had a running start on a vaccine, having proved in previous trials that similar inoculations — including one last year against an earlier coronavirus — were harmless to humans.”

 

“That has enabled them to leap ahead and schedule tests of their new coronavirus vaccine involving more than 6,000 people by the end of next month, hoping to show not only that it is safe, but also that it works.”

“The Oxford scientists now say that with an emergency approval from regulators, the first few million doses of their vaccine could be available by September — at least several months ahead of any of the other announced efforts — if it proves to be effective.”

 

Wall Street Journal: The secret group of scientists and billionaires pushing a Manhattan Project for Covid-19.

Thoughts, @Jason?

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At least California seem to have plateaued down. number of tests have doubled and still positive rate is half compared to last week. I think stay at home restrictions would be eased to an extent. I hope small business can open with some restrictions. Testing needs to increase way more than current levels. Newsom did say target of 93K per day at some point in May. Plus ramp up Anti body testing as well. 

 

https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19PublicDashboard/Covid-19Public?:embed=y&:display_count=no&:showVizHome=no

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Not the only vaccine candidate shown to be effective in monkeys - but the first to be approved for a combined phase II/III trial (safety + effectiveness), instead of just phase I (safety only).
 

Quote

In the worldwide race for a vaccine to stop the coronavirus, the laboratory sprinting fastest is at Oxford University.

 

Most other teams have had to start with small clinical trials of a few hundred participants to demonstrate safety. But scientists at the university’s Jenner Institute had a head start on a vaccine, having proved in previous trials that similar inoculations — including one last year against an earlier coronavirus — were harmless to humans.

 

That has enabled them to leap ahead and schedule tests of their new coronavirus vaccine involving more than 6,000 people by the end of next month, hoping to show not only that it is safe, but also that it works.

 

The Oxford scientists now say that with an emergency approval from regulators, the first few million doses of their vaccine could be available by September — at least several months ahead of any of the other announced efforts — if it proves to be effective.

 

Quote

Scientists at the National Institutes of Health’s Rocky Mountain Laboratory in Montana last month inoculated six rhesus macaque monkeys with single doses of the Oxford vaccine. The animals were then exposed to heavy quantities of the virus that is causing the pandemic — exposure that had consistently sickened other monkeys in the lab. But more than 28 days later all six were healthy, said Vincent Munster, the researcher who conducted the test.


The trial will follow the standard practice of comparing the rate of natural infection in the vaccinated group to the randomized group that has received a placebo - so they are planning trials in other locations as well in case they don't get enough infections in Britain: 
 

Quote

The institute last week began a Phase I clinical trial involving 1,100 people. Crucially, next month it will begin a combined Phase II and Phase III trial involving another 5,000. Unlike any other vaccine project now underway, that trial is designed to prove effectiveness as well as safety.

 

The scientists would declare victory if as many as a dozen participants who are given a placebo become sick with Covid-19 compared with only one or two who receive the inoculation. “Then we have a party and tell the world,” Professor Hill said. Everyone who had received only the placebo would also be vaccinated immediately.

 

If too few participants are infected in Britain, the institute is planning other trials where the coronavirus may still be spreading, possibly in Africa or India.

 

“We’ll have to chase the epidemic,” Professor Hill said. “If it is still raging in certain states, it is not inconceivable we end up testing in the United States in November.”


@Porthos - oops, we cross-posted. Cautiously, this is good news. The trial in rhesus macaques are not a guarantee of effectiveness, but a pretty good sign. There's a strong basis here for an accelerated timetable as well, having created other vaccines with the same method that were shown to be safe in previous trials. (Basically, they make use a virus modified to be unable to cause infection to express the proteins of the vaccine target, in this case SARS-CoV-2.) The other piece of good news in the article is this:
 

Quote

In 2014, however, a vaccine based on the chimp virus that Professor Hill had tested was manufactured in a large enough scale to provide a million doses. That created a template for mass production of the coronavirus vaccine, should it prove effective.

 

Edited by Jason
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https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-vaccine_uk_5ea067f2c5b6b2e5b83ba372?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGY7EA1Zpat5b9iNkbqx5i-l5K2qdbDQqB0RWXljjw5fGiWiHKsCU6Vl2ae80EuSLEGKJefjBAl227GbM6hleGt3hb3DQ_qs-6lFu4Q-AaBSKYBZGmdyoDd2BljkWGEaUlIrzcESY66LLg_DtFyBz0BfrbvrljE1bBi5E22a5vNq

"I teach at Oxford, but i don't want it to win the coronavirus vaccine race"

It seems that not everyone who works at Oxford wants to find the vaccine. For some people, political correctness is more important than finding the vaccine and saving a lot of lives. 

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31 minutes ago, Jason said:


@Porthos - oops, we cross-posted.

 

Heh.

 

What do you think about the September rollout?  That seems... aggressive to me.  Would it still hit September without any sort of challenge testing?  Also worried about side effects that take a while to appear and I worry that four/five months isn't quite enough time for delayed side effects to show up (though if this is based on previous vaccines, that might not be as much of a worry).

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9 minutes ago, Marcus Cato said:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-vaccine_uk_5ea067f2c5b6b2e5b83ba372?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGY7EA1Zpat5b9iNkbqx5i-l5K2qdbDQqB0RWXljjw5fGiWiHKsCU6Vl2ae80EuSLEGKJefjBAl227GbM6hleGt3hb3DQ_qs-6lFu4Q-AaBSKYBZGmdyoDd2BljkWGEaUlIrzcESY66LLg_DtFyBz0BfrbvrljE1bBi5E22a5vNq

"I teach at Oxford, but i don't want it to win the coronavirus vaccine race"

It seems that not everyone who works at Oxford wants to find the vaccine. For some people, political correctness is more important than finding the vaccine and saving a lot of lives. 

How do I want to put this...

 

*thinks*

 

There are people all across the political spectrum (along multiple axes lest people think I am referring to only left/right) that while they have a great overall point and are coming from a position of sincere belief, nonetheless should in fact NOT hit Publish Story over every concern they have on issues of the day.  If only because it does more harm than good for the issues one is trying to promote.

 

This was one of those times.

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5 hours ago, Barnack said:

I think it is simply that Germany health is very regional like the US and that not all of the "county" share there data with the Euro Momo project.

 

Berlin-Hesse that do seem to be the same speed than the rest, if they are representative of Germany (and considering the urban nature of Berlin I imagine they should), Germany excess death is quite negative, like Austria.

 

Or are slow. Some counties are even very slow to report data to their own states. In some parts they use the same people for contact tracing per office people.

 

—-

 

I look mostly into per 100.000 capita numbers. Berlin is veryyyy far down the list, the state of Hessen is also having a low cases run in comparison

Berlin has per 100.000

154.8 infected

3.4 dead

Both numbers are under Germany‘s average per 100.000

190.8 infected 

7.3 dead

 

Hessen as the complete state with a population of ~ 6.25 million has only as a sum

8039 infected = 128.3 per...

335 dead = 5.3 per...

(way too many of the dead were in one or two elderly care homes)

 

Bayern has a population of 13 million

41.930 infected (that‘s 320.6 per 100.000)

1.736 dead = 13.3

 

In comparison, the worst county in Germany is within my state (Bayern/Bavaria), it has per 100.000 -

1515.8 infected

136.5 dead

(that‘s considerable higher than NY). 

 

 

Upper Bavaria (including Munich) is the worst case of our administrative districts, with an average nearly 400 infected per 100.000, Munich being under the average, only having 9.7 dead per... . My county (municipality) is by far not the worst, has roughly double that count, and we are still not in the ‚top‘ 20 of Bayern

 

The local health Department Büros are juggling here....

 

Some Bayern population details, in case you are interested

 

Spoiler
Quote

Administrative divisions[edit]

220px-WV-Bavaria_regions.svg.png
 
Administrative districts (Regierungsbezirke and Bezirke) of Bavaria

Bavaria is divided into seven administrative districts called Regierungsbezirke (singular Regierungsbezirk).

Administrative districts[edit]

  1. Upper Palatinate (German: Oberpfalz)
  2. Upper Bavaria (Oberbayern)
  3. Lower Bavaria (Niederbayern)
  1. Upper Franconia (Oberfranken)
  2. Middle Franconia (Mittelfranken)
  3. Lower Franconia (Unterfranken)
  1. Swabia (Schwaben)

Population and area[edit]

Administrative region Capital Population (2011) Area (km2) No. municipalities
Lower Bavaria Landshut 1,192,641 9.48% 10,330 14.6% 258 12.5%
Lower Franconia Würzburg 1,315,882 10.46% 8,531 12.1% 308 15.0%
Upper Franconia Bayreuth 1,067,988 8.49% 7,231 10.2% 214 10.4%
Middle Franconia Ansbach 1,717,670 13.65% 7,245 10.3% 210 10.2%
Upper Palatinate Regensburg 1,081,800 8.60% 9,691 13.7% 226 11.0%
Swabia Augsburg 1,788,729 14.21% 9,992 14.2% 340 16.5%
Upper Bavaria Munich 4,418,828 35.12% 17,530 24.8% 500 24.3%
Total   12,583,538 100.0% 70,549 100.0% 2,056 100.0%

 

 

 

The neighbor state Baden-Württemberg too is hard hit....

 

 

Edited by terrestrial
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1 hour ago, Marcus Cato said:

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/coronavirus-vaccine_uk_5ea067f2c5b6b2e5b83ba372?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGY7EA1Zpat5b9iNkbqx5i-l5K2qdbDQqB0RWXljjw5fGiWiHKsCU6Vl2ae80EuSLEGKJefjBAl227GbM6hleGt3hb3DQ_qs-6lFu4Q-AaBSKYBZGmdyoDd2BljkWGEaUlIrzcESY66LLg_DtFyBz0BfrbvrljE1bBi5E22a5vNq

"I teach at Oxford, but i don't want it to win the coronavirus vaccine race"

It seems that not everyone who works at Oxford wants to find the vaccine. For some people, political correctness is more important than finding the vaccine and saving a lot of lives. 

If I'm being honest, you seem to care about political correctness the most, seeing as how it's the only thing you talk about in this thread.

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2 hours ago, Jason said:


Not the only vaccine candidate shown to be effective in monkeys - but the first to be approved for a combined phase II/III trial (safety + effectiveness), instead of just phase I (safety only).
 

 


The trial will follow the standard practice of comparing the rate of natural infection in the vaccinated group to the randomized group that has received a placebo - so they are planning trials in other locations as well in case they don't get enough infections in Britain: 
 


@Porthos - oops, we cross-posted. Cautiously, this is good news. The trial in rhesus macaques are not a guarantee of effectiveness, but a pretty good sign. There's a strong basis here for an accelerated timetable as well, having created other vaccines with the same method that were shown to be safe in previous trials. (Basically, they make use a virus modified to be unable to cause infection to express the proteins of the vaccine target, in this case SARS-CoV-2.) The other piece of good news in the article is this:
 

 

Also helps to have a handy Synchrotron on your doorstep.

 

https://www.diamond.ac.uk/covid-19/for-scientists.html

 

BTW, I designed the Klystron drivers and modulators for the light source, originally for SLAC but Diamond came knocking on the door after their own effort failed to work.

 

 

 

 

Edited by AndyK
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52 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

If I'm being honest, you seem to care about political correctness the most, seeing as how it's the only thing you talk about in this thread.

 

 

18 minutes ago, PDC1987 said:

He's a conservative troll, nothing more.

The usual patronizing and false labeling.. i had only 105 posts in three years on this forum, but you can call me a troll if it makes you feel better. And i'm just pointing out the wrongs on all sides of the political spectrum regarding the coronavirus. But i guess i can't do that without being chastised. I can quote many posts from here with literal hate speech against religion and conservatives which were not only tolerated but actually praised.

 

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27 minutes ago, Marcus Cato said:

 

 

The usual patronizing and false labeling.. i had only 105 posts in three years on this forum, but you can call me a troll if it makes you feel better. And i'm just pointing out the wrongs on all sides of the political spectrum regarding the coronavirus. But i guess i can't do that without being chastised. I can quote many posts from here with literal hate speech against religion and conservatives which were not only tolerated but actually praised.

 

Hate speech? For criticizing religion? 

 

 

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28 minutes ago, Noctis said:

Hate speech? For criticizing religion? 

 

 

I'm ok with criticizing individual cases of stupidity, which is exactly what i did too. I gave one example of stupidity from the left, without generalization. But there were some posts in here with generalized hate against a wide group of people of many races and ethnicities just because they are religious. I reiterate: i just gave one example without generalization, just like there were so many other examples in here with stupid things said or done by some religious people, which should be called out, and rightfully so.

Edited by Marcus Cato
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