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DeeCee

Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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Ah what the hell, in for a penny in for a pound.

 

I do find it... interesting that few people here complain about the IHME model when it over-predicts deaths for a day.  As I said entering the weekend, the IHME model does not adjust for what appear to be clear day of the week reporting influences.  At a glance it looks like over-predicted the death toll on Sat/Sun/Mon (as I expected it would) and under-predicted today.

 

IHME today had 1,610 deaths with a range of 303-5,181.  Worldmeter has it currently at 1,843 with a couple of hours left in the "day", so that will go up.

 

However, yesterday IHME had 1,728 deaths with a range of 337-5,458.  Worldmeter had it at 1,384.  Can't easily see the projections for prior days, but I recall overshoots on previous St/Su/Mo days.

 

So, I stick with my original quip about "wrong, but useful".

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4 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

I do not understand all what is to read the last page and this page. Different details. (yikes this ended on a new page, add one additional page backwards)

 

Example: What is ICE?

US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Wikipedia)

 

Lately they're the agency charged with apprehending and deporting folks without a visa/green card.

 

They... don't have the best of reputations on the left side of the aisle here, to put it mildly, especially when it comes to concerns of due process or respecting civil rights.  Or a whole host of other issues, frankly.

 

That's the very short answer.  Any longer answer would probably have to be in the Political section.

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21 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

I do not understand all what is to read the last page and this page. Different details. (yikes this ended on a new page, add one additional page backwards)

 

Example: What is ICE?


They’re darn near our version of Mussolini’s Black Shirts. :) 

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1 hour ago, Porthos said:

This isn't the first time, BTW:

 

 

Yes, this IS real, I went back and sourced it.  It was treated as a big joke at the time by all involved (including NASA), but in retrospect it is much less funny now.

 

(not that it was all that funny at the time)

I’m progressively reading through here thinking to myself. @Porthos please don’t remember the “Don’t touch” incident. But of course you had to. 

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Here is another model. This is one of the ones the CDC site. Looks like it became available publicly 4 days ago.

They have a great detail section explaining how it is different from IHME. It certainly fits the current data alot better.

https://covid19-projections.com/

 

It projects 153K US deaths by Aug 4th.

It includes projections for every state and 40 countries. It shows deaths per day, total deaths, estimated infection %, total # infected.

 

Here is the page at the CDC website with various models.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html

 

 

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38 minutes ago, Porthos said:

really would like some sort of evidence, like at all, that they have any sort of agenda.

 

I also find it curious that you're looking so closely at a lower bound when you've already dismissed the higher bound as an outlier.  Surely the same goes for the lower bound.

All I've got so far is circumstantial and inconclusive. I will keep digging, though.

 

Also keep in mind that I'm far from alone in calling out the IHME model as garbage. This is taken straight from the org's entry on Wikipedia:

 

Quote

In 2020, IHME published a model projecting deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic in the US which was described as widely influential, and informed guidelines developed by the Trump administration. Other prominent researchers have heavily criticized the model as flawed and misleading.[4][5][6][7][8]

 

How did we get such an inaccurate model held up as the golden standard, cited far and wide? It doesn't pass the smell test.

 

Also, for the record I'm being consistent. I dismiss the upper bound, the lower bound, and the mean line. The whole model is not to be taken seriously.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, doublejack said:

All I've got so far is circumstantial and inconclusive. I will keep digging, though.

 

Also keep in mind that I'm far from alone in calling out the IHME model as garbage. This is taken straight from the org's entry on Wikipedia:

 

 

How did we get such an inaccurate model held up as the golden standard, cited far and wide? It doesn't pass the smell test.

 

Also, for the record I'm being consistent. I dismiss the upper bound, the lower bound, and the mean line. The whole model is not to be taken seriously.

 

 

Fair enough.  And remember, I've been pretty consistent on my own comments about its shortcomings.

 

I just think some people, and now I am not talking about anyone here, give it more crap than it deserves because other folks are misusing its data for their own political ends.  

 

====

 

Either way, the IHME model might soon start to break down as states/local municipalities open up long before the model says they should.  And if people then point to the model and say "well it was wrong", all I can do is respond thusly:

 

bJTiO57.jpg

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31 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

I’m progressively reading through here thinking to myself. @Porthos please don’t remember the “Don’t touch” incident. But of course you had to. 

You're only saying that because you wanted to post the reminder. :ph34r:

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1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Ah what the hell, in for a penny in for a pound.

 

I do find it... interesting that few people here complain about the IHME model when it over-predicts deaths for a day.  As I said entering the weekend, the IHME model does not adjust for what appear to be clear day of the week reporting influences.  At a glance it looks like over-predicted the death toll on Sat/Sun/Mon (as I expected it would) and under-predicted today.

 

IHME today had 1,610 deaths with a range of 303-5,181.  Worldmeter has it currently at 1,843 with a couple of hours left in the "day", so that will go up.

 

However, yesterday IHME had 1,728 deaths with a range of 337-5,458.  Worldmeter had it at 1,384.  Can't easily see the projections for prior days, but I recall overshoots on previous St/Su/Mo days.

 

So, I stick with my original quip about "wrong, but useful".

I don't think there's been a single day where the IHME model truly over-predicted deaths. It is under, every single day. There are days where the reported deaths (per worldometers) are lower than the IHME model forecast, but that's not the true death count. I have no faith that all COVID deaths are being captured and tabulated, and I think the error rate in some communities is very high, approaching or over 100%.

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