google-site-verification=EzRt-ZmNlc4J5RNLXiuJpAEGjNviG678nNB1w49cgZg Jump to content
DeeCee

Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

Recommended Posts

Data on medical staff infected in Italy has been updated for 28th April.

20.797 medical workers have been infected. 72 have died - Overall IFR: 0.34%

Per age:

18-29: 0 / 2.107 (0%)

30-39: 1 / 3.584 (0.03%)

40-49: 4 / 5.857 (0.07%)

50-59: 17 / 6.935 (0.24%)

60-69: 37 / 2.209 (1.67%)

70-79: 13 / 105 (12.38%)

 

Of course, there are no people over 80, yet there aren't any under 20 either. Real IFR will end up at around 0.3 - 0.5 % imo.

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_28-aprile-2020.pdf

(page 14)

Edited by Andreas
Link
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, grim22 said:

WTF AFP

 

 

Well a survey said one in three Canadians believe the virus came from a Chinese lab so I imagine it's actually much higher in America.

Stuff like this is not helping

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Jason said:


I'm less pessimistic. That particular plan is indeed a nonstarter, and I note that while they recruited many brilliant minds, I count a grand total of zero epidemiologists or scientists from related fields - the person appointed to the Harvard School of Public Health is a health economist, their research has to do with healthcare spending.

Plans being put forward by people who actually have the required expertise, and are not merely experts in unrelated fields, have been much better. The multiple countries that have followed such plans have successfully contained COVID-19 or are well are on their way. We're not as close here in Canada or the US, but if we bring caseloads down first, then testing can become adequate even without being expanded.

At the peak of its outbreak in mid to late March, Taiwan was testing only about 1,000 people per day in a country of 24 million - but only about 2% of those tests were coming back positive. They were testing everyone who had come into contact with known cases regardless of symptoms, and that was enough to isolate cases and essentially end the outbreak - Taiwan has now had only 3 new cases in the past week, none from domestic transmission.

Notably, Taiwan never had the kind of lockdown that we have had here - schools were closed for an extra week after CNY, large gatherings were restricted, but otherwise businesses have not been asked to close. This was possible because they were doing extenstive testing and contact tracing from the start. That doesn't mean we don't need a lockdown right now - we do - but once the lockdown brings the caseload down to a level that our testing can handle, we should be able to adopt the same approach.

Assuming no further gains in testing can be achieved, a 2% ratio of positive tests/total tests could be achieved in the worst US jurisdictions by about a 7-fold reduction in cases. 

Assuming the generation time of the virus is 5 days (seems to be the median value from the literature), the amount of time that reduction would take is ~28 days at R~0.7, and ~44 days at R~0.8. I haven't crunched the numbers for each state properly, but I don't there are any that were doing more poorly than about R~0.8, taking into account the lag between measures taking place, and when their effect can be observed in case counts. That said, at R ~0.9, the reduction would take about 90 days.

The thing that concerns me the most is that politicians aren't going to implement lockdowns long enough for them to adequately reduce caseloads, rather than the difficulties in ramping up testing. In principle though, lockdowns that reduce caseloads enough for effective testing and contact tracing to take place, should allow for most activities to resume within a few months.

 

The bolded statement is one I see playing out. That and the fact that lockdowns in the US do not appear to be as effective as they are in other places, based on anonymous data published by Apple and Google. Whether the curve has been flattened is very much open for debate across most of the US, and at the same time there is mounting pressure to reopen things. 

 

I believe this is where the outrageously high tests per day requirements for opening the economy are coming from. The reality is the virus is not contained in the US, the sentiment is not uniformly in favor of lockdowns continuing, and testing levels are nowhere near high enough to facilitate the test and trace method given the current spread.

 

The situation you pointed out in Taiwan is the ideal way to handle an outbreak. Australia and New Zealand both did excellent jobs as well. Unfortunately, that is not what happened in the US. If you take the last 7 days, we're still seeing an average of 30k+ new cases a day here. Sure, the percentage of positive tests has dropped, but the raw number is not declining. That's bad. Deaths continue in the 2k per day range as well and should continue at that level at least through the next two weeks. In the face of all this, there are armed protests to reopen.

 

 

So I remain pessimistic. I don't see an end to this in 2020. Instead I see a series of openings and closings and multiple waves of deaths. Multiple colleges are already announcing that the fall 2020 classes will be held online. It's not too early to call this, IMO.

  • Astonished 2
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, The Panda said:

Everything Elon Musk says ranges on a scale of

 

Dumb to so Idiotic that Wharton should revoke his undergrad degree and feel complete and utter shame for producing both him and Donald Trump.

I disagree that elon musk always is an idiot..

 

If you listen to his podcast on The Joe Rogan Experience it was pretty Illuminating about automation and AI.

 

Like I do agree he is a moron and lacks any social etiquette but there is a genius in there in some respects in designing and buildings things.

 

Once again we like to be so binary on here.

 

However he's a very polarizing individual and he has a lot of detractors and a lot of supporters.

 

Edited by Lordmandeep
  • Not Cool 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, Andreas said:

Data on medical staff infected in Italy has been updated for 28th April.

20.797 medical workers have been infected. 72 have died - Overall IFR: 0.34%

Per age:

18-29: 0 / 2.107 (0%)

30-39: 1 / 3.584 (0.03%)

40-49: 4 / 5.857 (0.07%)

50-59: 17 / 6.935 (0.24%)

60-69: 37 / 2.209 (1.67%)

70-79: 13 / 105 (12.38%)

 

Of course, there are no people over 80, yet there aren't any under 20 either. Real IFR will end up at around 0.3 - 0.5 % imo.

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_28-aprile-2020.pdf

(page 14)

The real IFR is probably closer to 1% which is I think is the IFR you get using the NYC antibody tests (and include probable deaths and excess deaths). Percentage of people over 70 in this healthcare worker sample is much lower than the % of over 70 in the Italian population.

 

Still, good news for anyone under 50 I guess.

Edited by lorddemaxus

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does he not realize that there are more GOP voters in LA and OC than most red states combined?

 

 

  • ...wtf 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

I disagree that elon musk always is an idiot..

 

If you listen to his podcast on The Joe Rogan Experience it was pretty Illuminating about automation and AI.

 

Like I do agree he is a moron and lacks any social etiquette but there is a genius in there in some respects in designing and buildings things.

 

Once again we like to be so binary on here.

 

However he's a very polarizing individual and he has a lot of detractors and a lot of supporters.

 

My biggest beef with Musk is that he's approaching AI / autonomous vehicles from the wrong direction. My background is that of a software developer, and my instincts tell me that Musk will never develop an AI that is as capable of driving a vehicle as the average human is. The problem is the roads are simply not set up for it. If we want safe autonomous cars, then some standardization and safety systems will need to be built into the nation's roads.

 

All too often I see autonomous cars compared to planes and helicopters that have an autopilot feature. The reality is they are not even close to comparable. Designing a system to fly a plane is way easier, even though on the surface it may not seem to be.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Does [Trump] not realize that ...

Think you pretty much answered your own question there, grim. :ph34r:

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Think you pretty much answered your own question there, grim. :ph34r:

Sorry, I got distracted by the TREMENDOUS DEATH

 

 

  • Haha 1
  • Sad 1
  • Disbelief 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

I disagree that elon musk always is an idiot..

 

If you listen to his podcast on The Joe Rogan Experience it was pretty Illuminating about automation and AI.

 

Like I do agree he is a moron and lacks any social etiquette but there is a genius in there in some respects in designing and buildings things.

 

Once again we like to be so binary on here.

 

However he's a very polarizing individual and he has a lot of detractors and a lot of supporters.

 

Elon Musk and Joe Rogan are two things I’d never want to listen to alone, let alone together

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Andreas said:

Data on medical staff infected in Italy has been updated for 28th April.

....

Thank you for the update, that‘s sad

 

My Internet connection seem to be too slow to get that up (or it acts up again) is it correct to assume that with medical staff are only non-doctors are meant? See doctors death count a few days back was already at 151...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Sorry, I got distracted by the TREMENDOUS DEATH

 

 

Is it sad that I've seen enough of Trump that I can actually translate what he was saying there (it's tremendous that we avoided such a level of death [that's what "left behind" meant in his mind, IMO]).

 

...

 

Yes... Yes it is. :gold:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, doublejack said:

 

T. In the face of all this, there are armed protests to reopen.

 

 

 

is it legal for armed Americans to enter a government building with assault rifles? 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

is it legal for armed Americans to enter a government building with assault rifles? 

Depends on the state, but yes:

 

 

 

 

  • Astonished 1
  • Sad 1
  • ...wtf 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To follow up, it was a fallout of a lot of the Tea Party protests, though not exclusively.  A decent part of it is also conservatives intentionally pandering to the extremists in the gun-rights crowd which has been pretty active this past decade.

 

How these same politicians would react to a bunch of armed protestors who happened to be black or brown, I will leave to your imagination.

Edited by Porthos
  • Like 3
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Sorry, I got distracted by the TREMENDOUS DEATH

 

 

1917. He must really like the movie. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Depends on the state, but yes:

 

 

 

 

I remember reading an article once about the Texas State House in Austin. It had metal detectors when entering the building. However, there was a separate queue for those with a weapon who could bypass the queue and go straight in. 
 

Found it.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/09/us/guns-get-a-pass-at-texas-capitol.html

 

 

  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

 By  91 Comments

 

“The Capitol’s attending physician said Thursday that coronavirus tests will be available for staffers and senators who are ill, but not enough to proactively test all 100 senators as the chamber comes back in session,” Politico reports.

 

“In a conference call with top GOP officials, Dr. Brian Monahan said there is not sufficient capacity to quickly test senators for coronavirus — a contrast with the White House, where any people meeting with President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence are tested for the disease. Monahan said test results in the Senate will take two or more days, while the White House has rapid testing.”

 

Washington Post: Democrats question McConnell’s decision to return Senate to business.

It's almost May, and not even the Senate can fully cover a "test everyone" policy.

 

Let that sink in.

  • Like 1
  • Astonished 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Porthos said:

It's almost May, and not even the Senate can fully cover a "test everyone" policy.

 

Let that sink in.

But the MLB will definitely run empty arenas by testing everyone.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.