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its extremely tough on Tesla which needs to push 110% to stay on track for profitability. I think Tesla is essential as there is no other company pushing clean energy/transportation as much as they are. Plus they make great cars. 

 

That said they have to ride this out rather than going full attack mode. Look at how Bezos handled constant attack from Trump for past 4 years. Sometimes silence is golden. 

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2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

its extremely tough on Tesla which needs to push 110% to stay on track for profitability. I think Tesla is essential as there is no other company pushing clean energy/transportation as much as they are. Plus they make great cars. 

 

That said they have to ride this out rather than going full attack mode. Look at how Bezos handled constant attack from Trump for past 4 years. Sometimes silence is golden. 

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2 hours ago, The Panda said:

Ugh

 

 

Nate in general does a solid job with his work with political science, sports models and polling models but many of his takes have been fairly bad about COVID-19 (not all of them, he’s just been a mixed bag on this subject).

 

This is certainly an odd take given the fact there are clear peers to the US that have managed the crisis quite a bit better, such as New Zealand and South Korea.  It’s also odd to assume that if most major Western European countries have responded poorly that their responses must have been optimal and unavoidable.

That's the problem, Nate is typically only good with the literal numbers. He's had notorious blunders when he comments beyond them.

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10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

its extremely tough on Tesla which needs to push 110% to stay on track for profitability. I think Tesla is essential as there is no other company pushing clean energy/transportation as much as they are. Plus they make great cars. 

 

That said they have to ride this out rather than going full attack mode. Look at how Bezos handled constant attack from Trump for past 4 years. Sometimes silence is golden. 

That was true, but now the luxury automakers are coming for Tesla. Full throttle. Porsche just released the EV Taycan, and GM made it official that Cadillac is being overhauled top to bottom and going full EV by 2030, with the first two models debuting within 24 months. (The second of which was shown to Motor Trend already; it's their first full size flagship sedan in decades, and will be built by hand and custom made to order.) BMW and MB have huge plans as well.

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6 minutes ago, PDC1987 said:

That's the problem, Nate is typically only good with the literal numbers. He's had notorious blunders when he comments beyond them.

This is not what I was saying.  He’s quite intuitive in how he explains his political forecasting models and does a great job with explaining what their predictions are actually saying and where they come from. 

I was just pointing out that he’s had quite a few problematic takes when relating to COVID-19.

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15 minutes ago, PDC1987 said:

That was true, but now the luxury automakers are coming for Tesla. Full throttle. Porsche just released the EV Taycan, and GM made it official that Cadillac is being overhauled top to bottom and going full EV by 2030, with the first two models debuting within 24 months. (The second of which was shown to Motor Trend already; it's their first full size flagship sedan in decades, and will be built by hand and custom made to order.) BMW and MB have huge plans as well.


This is all great, and I encourage them to go all-out (all the other car manufacturers should too), but Tesla’s got the advantage of the most experience making modern electric cars (ironically enough), they’re at the forefront of battery technology, and they’re light-years ahead in terms of public infrastructure (the Supercharger network). So I think they’re well-entrenched in this new area — and the more competition there is, the better for everyone. 
 

(Sorry for continuing the off-topic discussion.)

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19 minutes ago, PDC1987 said:

That was true, but now the luxury automakers are coming for Tesla. Full throttle. Porsche just released the EV Taycan, and GM made it official that Cadillac is being overhauled top to bottom and going full EV by 2030, with the first two models debuting within 24 months. (The second of which was shown to Motor Trend already; it's their first full size flagship sedan in decades, and will be built by hand and custom made to order.) BMW and MB have huge plans as well.

Porsche is niche and limited quantity. GM has Bolt for several years(its a great car) but again limited in quantity. At this point apart from  Tesla only some chinese EV makers are mass manufacturing EV's at a global scale. Chinese EV makers at this point are at scale only in China and very limited elsewhere(BYD or MG). 

 

Plus there are 2 aspects where Tesla is eons ahead of everybody. 1st is battery. Only tesla is mass manufacturing batteries at scale. VW is planning to build their own as well as GM but that is still to be proven. 

 

2nd even bigger thing is software. Tesla has over half a million cars providing billions of miles of data and their autopilot suit is ahead of all other manufacturers. One could say GM Cruise but that is still to be proven. Bolt has mediocre software. 

 

Still this is not zero sum game and we will have multiple winners but Tesla is essential at this point to keep pressure on all auto manufacturers. 

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why I wont buy an electric car:

 

firefighters here wont cut you out after an accident

 

no electric car here is allowed to hook up anything, including a small camper or...

 

I‘ll drive my old, small 4-seater, that is still listed in the top 10 of the least ‘thirsty cars’ including hybrid, 2-seaters,..., and wait for the next technology

 

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1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Porsche is niche and limited quantity. GM has Bolt for several years(its a great car) but again limited in quantity. At this point apart from  Tesla only some chinese EV makers are mass manufacturing EV's at a global scale. Chinese EV makers at this point are at scale only in China and very limited elsewhere(BYD or MG). 

 

Plus there are 2 aspects where Tesla is eons ahead of everybody. 1st is battery. Only tesla is mass manufacturing batteries at scale. VW is planning to build their own as well as GM but that is still to be proven. 

 

2nd even bigger thing is software. Tesla has over half a million cars providing billions of miles of data and their autopilot suit is ahead of all other manufacturers. One could say GM Cruise but that is still to be proven. Bolt has mediocre software. 

 

Still this is not zero sum game and we will have multiple winners but Tesla is essential at this point to keep pressure on all auto manufacturers. 

To play devil's advocate, the cheapest Tesla still can't be called a budget/mass produced ubiquitous vehicle lol. But yes, they have the battery monopoly. For now.

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David Fisman, actual epidemiologist, going off on Nate Silver has me ecstatic.

 

 

And then his now pinned tweet is the cherry on top, worth giving him a follow imo

 

 

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25 minutes ago, The Panda said:

David Fisman, actual epidemiologist, going off on Nate Silver has me ecstatic.

 

 

And then his now pinned tweet is the cherry on top, worth giving him a follow imo

 

 

I’ve been following him for a while, he’s really honest about everything and very critical so it’s a great follow. Also, Nate is a joke and should stop posting about covid, or at least stop posting about other countries. 

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23 minutes ago, The Panda said:

 

 

 

The tweet the pinned one is a reply to I find hilarious. I see the complaints... "you're just fear mongering" or "why are all the posts so negative". We're in a pandemic. The news is not exactly good, and unrealistic (dare I say fanciful) models may make people feel better but at the end of the day they are rubbish and will lead to a letdown.

 

On to Fisman, I find this tweet he retweeted quite interesting.

 

 

 

That's an eye opening thread. If this is accurate then herd immunity is the only realistic way to end the pandemic. It looks like we're either going to live with the slow burn scenario until 50-70% of people get COVID, or we're facing a massive second wave in the fall into 2021. 

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19 minutes ago, doublejack said:

The tweet the pinned one is a reply to I find hilarious. I see the complaints... "you're just fear mongering" or "why are all the posts so negative". We're in a pandemic. The news is not exactly good, and unrealistic (dare I say fanciful) models may make people feel better but at the end of the day they are rubbish and will lead to a letdown.

 

On to Fisman, I find this tweet he retweeted quite interesting.

 

 

 

That's an eye opening thread. If this is accurate then herd immunity is the only realistic way to end the pandemic. It looks like we're either going to live with the slow burn scenario until 50-70% of people get COVID, or we're facing a massive second wave in the fall into 2021. 

There is one and maybe 2 vaccines already in phase 2 trials .... many more in Phase 1.  We don't need to build factories?  One company is already manufacturing the most promising vaccine and Bill Gates will start manufacturing up to 7 before the trials are finished.

 

Corona viruses are not new unknown viruses.  They've been studied for decades and a few labs had already started on a vaccine.

 

That tweet is full of hyperbole

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Ireland has announced a 5 stage 'lockdown easing' process which, if it doesn't see a jump in cases, would conclude in September at the earliest. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52509390

 

Prepare for the long haul.

 

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Damn inslee is hardcore. May 31st ouch.

 

This is gonna be brutal. Thank God for my babysitter. The only social interaction outside of me and my wife for my kiddo. I gave a nice bonus and will do so again at the end of May. 

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Just now, cdsacken said:

Damn inslee is hardcore. May 31st ouch.

 

This is gonna be brutal. Thank God for my babysitter. The only social interaction outside of me and my wife for my kiddo. I gave a nice bonus and will do so again at the end of May. 

 

We actually had a moment of pure joy here today...this afternoon, the children's science lab around me announced pay what you want virtual summer camp weeks for May...and one was a "build it, dream it" which is my older son's total obsession right now.  No way could we put the money up for the online camp, but apparently corporate donors decided to underwrite it (I'm assuming they couldn't get sign ups) and allow the museum to offer it for donation/PWYW - so my son is happily jumping around the house (since he got in at the lowered "price").  All for an hour morning, 90 minutes in the afternoon, and an hour activity with me and his brother for 5 days (they had 3 camp weeks, but 1 week should hit the sweet spot)...but with that, lunch, walks, and math...I can check that week off as being both entertaining and enriching for him (and maybe even a good memory of this).

 

My eldest daughter did a forensic science camp at the same age...and has wanted to be one ever since...

 

My son is almost certain to be a mechanical engineer, architect, or urban planner after this one, I'm almost certain:)...

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