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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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37 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

You're talking about an unrelated incident. The tweet @grim22 posted seems to be have happened in llinois. This article is about a protest in Pittsburgh.


How many goddamn Nazi signs are out there?!

 

:sarah: :apocalypse:

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https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/02/donald-trump-coronavirus-remdesivir-229765

 

I think Nate Silver has a point by the way on the US response. The first intelligence briefing for the leaders of the Congressional and Executive branches on COVID19 was on Jan 3rd. So nobody in Washington in either party really took things too seriously. Now ultimately it falls on the President to rally everyone, but no one was really talking about it that much.

 

Do I think a President Clinton would have reacted better - yes. Do I think it would have made a huge difference - no. 

Even if she had acted sooner, would the MAGA crowd simply have ignored her and purposely go out, I could see that.

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20 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/02/donald-trump-coronavirus-remdesivir-229765

 

I think Nate Silver has a point by the way on the US response. The first intelligence briefing for the leaders of the Congressional and Executive branches on COVID19 was on Jan 3rd. So nobody in Washington in either party really took things too seriously. Now ultimately it falls on the President to rally everyone, but no one was really talking about it that much.

 

Do I think a President Clinton would have reacted better - yes. Do I think it would have made a huge difference - no. 

Even if she had acted sooner, would the MAGA crowd simply have ignored her and purposely go out, I could see that.


While I wish the administration had reacted lightning fast in early January, I’m far more furious that they didn’t react at all through January, through February, and through March; nor did they even react meaningly or effectively through a significant part of April.

Edited by Plain Old Tele
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1 hour ago, RamblinRed said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/02/donald-trump-coronavirus-remdesivir-229765

 

I think Nate Silver has a point by the way on the US response. The first intelligence briefing for the leaders of the Congressional and Executive branches on COVID19 was on Jan 3rd. So nobody in Washington in either party really took things too seriously. Now ultimately it falls on the President to rally everyone, but no one was really talking about it that much.

 

Do I think a President Clinton would have reacted better - yes. Do I think it would have made a huge difference - no. 

Even if she had acted sooner, would the MAGA crowd simply have ignored her and purposely go out, I could see that.


A President Clinton probably wouldn't have gutted the pandemic response team, or had such high turnover in the various agencies responsible for the US response. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/us/politics/coronavirus-expertise-trump.html)

On January 3rd no one really knew anything about the virus, but around January 23 the WHO confirmed human transmission and warned countries to prepare to test extensively. Some countries began making those preparations, and they've done very well, much better than the US. We know that the US was able to prepare and approve tests very quickly in response to previous novel infections, and this time the CDC and FDA utterly failed, both in comparison to their prior response and to other countries. Formerly, the US has been a leader among Western countries in responding to epidemics and pandemics.

I don't know why Nate Silver is ignoring Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, and Germany when he says that other countries haven't done better than the US. Possibly for the same reason he's sparring with actual epidemiologists on Twitter.

We also know that Trump ignored a number of communications from US experts beginning in late January that outlined the severity of the crisis, and urged a response. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-red-dawn-emails-trump.html)

I do in fact think that a competent US President of either party would have made a huge difference. It's worth noting that it was actually George W. Bush that urged the CDC and NIH to begin pandemic preparations, something that Obama inherited and continued.

Edited by Jason
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22 minutes ago, Jason said:

A President Clinton probably wouldn't have gutted the pandemic response team, or had such high turnover in the various agencies responsible for the US response. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/us/politics/coronavirus-expertise-trump.html)

 

And someone working in that whitehouse would have probably knew about this:

On February 29, the FDA loosened its regulations, allowing clinical labs to test for coronavirus using tests they developed and validated, so long as they notified the FDA and submitted EUA requests within 15 days.
 
Instead of february 29, that happen say in late january and it change a lot of thinks for the early testing volume in the US.
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from the article that Tele posted

 

Quote

If a vaccine proves successful in early trials, regulators could issue an emergency-use provision so that doctors, nurses and other essential workers could get vaccinated right away — even before the end of the year. Researchers at Oxford announced this week that their coronavirus vaccine could be ready for emergency use by September if trials prove successful.

how much can the authorities use an emergency vaccine as an excuse to restart the economy asap should a 2nd wave of the virus hits soon? even if said vaccine is not "Ready or that safe" :thinking:

 

 

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40 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

from the article that Tele posted

 

how much can the authorities use an emergency vaccine as an excuse to restart the economy asap should a 2nd wave of the virus hits soon? even if said vaccine is not "Ready or that safe" :thinking:


From a purely scientific standpoint, they can't. (Doesn't mean they won't try.) The Oxford researchers made it clear that they'd only be able to produce a few million doses by around that time, enough for front-line healthcare workers but not much else.

I don't think a vaccine will be released to even healthcare workers if evidence of safety/efficacy is not very sound. No guarantees, but that's something regulators have been very cautious about for a long time now. The rapid timeline for the Oxford vaccine is being made possible largely by the existence of prior work and research - the "piggyback" being used for the COVID-19 viral proteins has already been shown to be safe in previous studies, justifying the speedy approval of a combined phase II/III trial.

There is of course no guarantee that the results of that trial will be demonstrate safety and efficacy.

A vaccine is not what we should be waiting for, we should be focusing on getting to a situation like Taiwan, where testing and contact-tracing can be relied on to prevent further spread - businesses are open there, only large gatherings are restricted. The key is patience, keeping strong restrictions in place long enough so that testing becomes adequate for the caseload, as I've mentioned before.

A safe and effective vaccine also requires that it's widely available, before we can fully go back to "normal".  Given what we've been seeing, I wouldn't be surprised if some politicians try and pretend that a limited-availability vaccine would justify an end to all restrictions, but in that case I can only hope that most people realize that doesn't make sense and continue to exercise caution. (And that those politicians get punished at the ballot box, but that's another story.)

Edited by Jason
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19 minutes ago, Jason said:

I don't think a vaccine will be released to even healthcare workers if evidence of safety/efficacy is not very sound.

That's correct, a vaccine is not to be taken lightly - after all, injecting someone perfectly healthy with something that's possibly dangerous is something no doctor will do. That 's why, usually, the tests last years and years until you have a vaccine thats a) safe to use and b) reliable in the sense that you do have reliable immunity afterwards. Those test also help to ascertain how often the vaccine has to be administered. And those tests take time, time, time. Because you have to wait for the immune system to react and then you have to "hope" as many of your tests subjects get, in fact, infected, so you can observe real-life reactions. (Again, no doctor would infect a perfectly healthy human with a potentially deadly virus just to see if the vaccine works - that's why there are, sometimes, self-tests as depicted in the movie Contagion). I can't imagine any widespread rollout this year except for phase 2 and 3 tests with a few 10k voluntaries around the world IF we have a promising candidate. Even early 2021 would be extremely fast for a reliable vaccine!

 

Fact is, if Covid19 would be a lot deadlier than it really is, we would probably have an experimental kind of vaccine out in summer, because then we would be really desperate and even a not-so-perfect vaccine would be preferrable to a lot of deaths. To borrow a term from my world, we all would be beta-testing the thing. As it is, Covid19 is not that bad for a big part of the population and we can't risk a so-so vaccine.

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2 hours ago, Jason said:

my 
A President Clinton probably wouldn't have gutted the pandemic response team, or had such high turnover in the various agencies responsible for the US response. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/us/politics/coronavirus-expertise-trump.html)

On January 3rd no one really knew anything about the virus, but around January 23 the WHO confirmed human transmission and warned countries to prepare to test extensively. Some countries began making those preparations, and they've done very well, much better than the US. We know that the US was able to prepare and approve tests very quickly in response to previous novel infections, and this time the CDC and FDA utterly failed, both in comparison to their prior response and to other countries. Formerly, the US has been a leader among Western countries in responding to epidemics and pandemics.

I don't know why Nate Silver is ignoring Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, and Germany when he says that other countries haven't done better than the US. Possibly for the same reason he's sparring with actual epidemiologists on Twitter.

We also know that Trump ignored a number of communications from US experts beginning in late January that outlined the severity of the crisis, and urged a response. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-red-dawn-emails-trump.html)

I do in fact think that a competent US President of either party would have made a huge difference. It's worth noting that it was actually George W. Bush that urged the CDC and NIH to begin pandemic preparations, something that Obama inherited and continued.

My qualification is less about how a Democratic President would have responded and more about whether 50% of the country would have chosen to actively ignore the orders making it potentially worse.

 

Trump would get an F from me on response.  To say it is pathetic would be an understatement.

 

Fauci has said that one of W. health programs (can't remember which one) was the single most important program of the last century from a world health perspective.

 

Trump has been the littlelist of the little. So many Western leaders did poorly and he did worst of all. Some of that had to do with this needing to be a world response and right now their are alot of populist leaders that have a country first outlook.

 

 

 

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I think you will see a lot of small counties start to open on CA/OR/WA/CO etc. Acceptable risk with minimal covid cases atm. Eastern Washington, rural Oregon northern CA 

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33 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I think you will see a lot of small counties start to open on CA/OR/WA/CO etc. Acceptable risk with minimal covid cases atm. Eastern Washington, rural Oregon northern CA 

Could do, but I expect the Puget Sound region to remain mostly closed after the Stay at Home order ends.

 

A message at work noted that while we're doing a lot to slow the spread, there are still many more cases than there were before the restrictions were put in place.

 

I would much prefer to be overly cautious than to try to rush a reopening and give resurgence a chance.

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5 minutes ago, ElsaRoc said:

Could do, but I expect the Puget Sound region to remain mostly closed after the Stay at Home order ends.

 

A message at work noted that while we're doing a lot to slow the spread, there are still many more cases than there were before the restrictions were put in place.

 

I would much prefer to be overly cautious than to try to rush a reopening and give resurgence a chance.

No doubt. I'm going crazy but better safe than sorry. Before they extended I talked to all of my team. Only 1 of 11 wanted to go in. 4 were willing. 

 

 

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22 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

Not a single time ever have so many resources and researchers been devoted to finding one vaccine.

It's still a lot like underpants gnome thinking. There's absolutely no guarantee that a 12-18 month time frame is realistic since it has never been done, and is a tiny fraction of the usual time creating a vaccine takes. The disclaimer about that fact is either absent or ignored. Throwing a ton of money at the problem helps but isn't a miracle.

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