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Coronavirus | COVID-19 | Global Pandemic | PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION TO THIS THREAD

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29 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

That wont happen with either Joe Biden or Trump in office, so that is a pointless to think about. 

 

It is not that people are not comfortable....making people stay at home for 6 months to a year will have significant long term economic, social and mental consequences that need to be looked at as well and I feel many people here is discounting or ignoring.

 

As I said that there is a great inequality in lock-down measures. Some can sit at home and drink wine and watch Disney Plus, many are having their lives altered negatively for the worse. 

 

Also I will say the longer this lockdown takes place, the less effective it will be. 

 

As I said I have sense a great shift in thinking of fear of the disease to a  fear of what may be after this . 

Biden will increase corporate to 27/28 where it should be. Corporations in USA get away with MURDER. 99% pay less tax than I do and I'm not wealthy

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18 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

It is not that people are not comfortable....making people stay at home for 6 months to a year will have significant long term economic, social and mental consequences that need to be looked at as well and I feel many people here is discounting or ignoring.

Increasing the death toll and greatly increasing people's fear of going out at all will have significant long term economic, social, and mental consequences. I feel that many people are ignoring that.

 

Once a vaccine is safe, available, and widespread we can look at getting back to some semblance of normalcy, but until then we need massive testing, massive contact tracing, and very, very strong social distancing regulations in place. 

 

None of those things exist, yet.

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8 minutes ago, ElsaRoc said:

Increasing the death toll and greatly increasing people's fear of going out at all will have significant long term economic, social, and mental consequences. I feel that many people are ignoring that.

 

Once a vaccine is safe, available, and widespread we can look at getting back to some semblance of normalcy, but until then we need massive testing, massive contact tracing, and very, very strong social distancing regulations in place. 

 

None of those things exist, yet.

 

If people follow social distancing rules and wear masks and wash hands and sanitation rules there wont be mass deaths. I am not advocating for a mass reopening at once either. 

 

NYC and Italy style death tolls required weeks and weeks of mass spread in normal environments. 

 

In such a scenario deaths would be quite minimal. As i said unless you got a realistic plan to keep 100s of millions of people at home for 6-12 months,  I am all ears. 

 

And based on what i can see, that is what will happen... No country is heading towards 18 months of lockdowns. 

 

 

 

Edited by Lordmandeep
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On 5/3/2020 at 6:57 AM, a2k said:

India, new cases last 10 days:

2567 Sat, May 2

2396

1801

1703

1902

1568

1607 Sun

1835 Sat

1408

1667

India, new cases last 10 days (and daily tests):

2676 (70.1k) Sun, May 3

2567 (73.7k) Sat

2396 (72.5k)

1801 (59.4k)

1703 (54.0k)

1902 (50.9k)

1568 (40.5k)

1607 (45.3k) Sun

1835 (38.2k) Sat

1408 (41.2k)

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57 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

China has zero interest of ever being involved in any investigation of the Virus... 

 

As...

 

- It will likely make them look bad

- Western Nations will use it to blame them 

 

I doubt that true, for SARS for example they did:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3323155/

https://www.who.int/csr/sars/archive/2003_04_02a/en/

 

I find hard to believe that China is not already (since January at the latest) involved with many investigation surrounding everything about the virus.

 

For Covid:

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

 

https://www.ft.com/content/f08181a9-526c-4e4b-ac5f-0614bf1cffb3

US and Chinese researchers team up for hunt into Covid origins

Scientists co-operate on search for Covid-19 origins despite charges Beijing is withholding data

“The China CDC is interested in learning as much as it can about the origins [of] these types of viruses,” Prof Lipkin, a virologist who worked on the 2003 Sars and 2012

 

It would be surrealist for China to not participate and not get involved to research how this started, they are doing stuff like:

China CDC had helped him liaise with hospitals and local CDCs across the country. This was to access nationwide blood bank samples taken from pneumonia patients so the group could study whether coronavirus had been present in the population before it was detected in Wuhan.

 

Has for one re-introduction could be possible.

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3 hours ago, Barnack said:

 

I doubt that true, for SARS for example they did:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3323155/

https://www.who.int/csr/sars/archive/2003_04_02a/en/

 

I find hard to believe that China is not already (since January at the latest) involved with many investigation surrounding everything about the virus.

 

For Covid:

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

 

https://www.ft.com/content/f08181a9-526c-4e4b-ac5f-0614bf1cffb3

US and Chinese researchers team up for hunt into Covid origins

Scientists co-operate on search for Covid-19 origins despite charges Beijing is withholding data

“The China CDC is interested in learning as much as it can about the origins [of] these types of viruses,” Prof Lipkin, a virologist who worked on the 2003 Sars and 2012

 

It would be surrealist for China to not participate and not get involved to research how this started, they are doing stuff like:

China CDC had helped him liaise with hospitals and local CDCs across the country. This was to access nationwide blood bank samples taken from pneumonia patients so the group could study whether coronavirus had been present in the population before it was detected in Wuhan.

 

Has for one re-introduction could be possible.

this time it is impossible for China to be involved with investigation. no matter how the world comment and how many people die from the virus.

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Here in Scotland we only had 12 deaths yesterday, and we have less than 100 people in hospital with it now, the lowest since March 30th. 
 

things seem to be moving in a positive direction here now. 

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8 hours ago, RamblinRed said:

Our son has Asperger's and we had to go with a slower vaccination schedule because he had negative reactions to a couple of the vaccines. 

 

The vaccination schedule works perfectly fine for 90-95% of childen. But there are 5-10% that have negative reactions to some vaccinations and you need to allow them to be on a schedule that is not a negative for them.

There are even children who can't be vaccinated at all. But exactly this is the reason some vaccinations are compulsive (at least in Austria) - if you get 80-90% vaccinated, then any outbreak of, say, the Measles (just to take one example) will be shortlived as it mostly runs into immune kids.

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... and a new random sample study in Austria using PCR tests found only 1 new infection from the >1.400 sample, so while there are bound to be some "hidden" infections, the numbers appear to be rather low - probably <10k infections in all of Austria (official number according to worldometer is about 1.800 active cases)

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6 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

There are even children who can't be vaccinated at all. But exactly this is the reason some vaccinations are compulsive (at least in Austria) - if you get 80-90% vaccinated, then any outbreak of, say, the Measles (just to take one example) will be shortlived as it mostly runs into immune kids.

Absolutely.

The anti-vaxxers take what should be a legitimate position - which is to make sure your pediatrician understands your child and works toward the best for him/her, and takes it to an extreme.

 

As long as 80-90% get vaccinated that basically gives you the herd immunity you need to stop outbreaks.

 

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Idk but is the viral load that people get in infections quite diminished now?

 

That should be put in the equation around opening up things or not. 

 

Like if I go grocery shopping wearing a mask and using hand sanitizer and gloves, the chance of getting or passing the virus is reduced and the amount of virus being passed is reduced by a lot then before. 

 

I read articles saying VIRAL LOAD determines if some people get a mild infection or get badly infected. 

Edited by Lordmandeep
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55 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Idk but is the viral load that people get in infections quite diminished now?

 

That should be put in the equation around opening up things or not. 

 

Like if I go grocery shopping wearing a mask and using hand sanitizer and gloves, the chance of getting or passing the virus is reduced and the amount of virus being passed is reduced by a lot then before. 

 

I read articles saying VIRAL LOAD determines if some people get a mild infection or get badly infected. 

I know they’re saying in the UK now someone with Coronavirus could infect 3 other people in March, now its at 0.7. 
 

this is the R0 (R naught) but sounds similar to the meaning of viral load. 

Edited by Krissykins
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Viral load is extremely important, that's why a lot of health workers - nurses and doctors alike - were hit hard during the first weeks. Intubating someone ill with Covid19 will expose you to a really really heavy dose, you need excellent PPE.

 

And that's why I believe that flattening the curve will mean lesser deaths also in the long run. Going by simple mathematics, you could argue that the areas under the curve - meaning the total number of people infected and dead - stays the same - flattening the curve would mean, you have the same number of critical cases and deaths, only over 5 years, as with not flattening.

But in reality it means fewer - much fewer - people are infected at the same time, and that means that the overall viral load will be much smaller. Which means less risk of infection, fewer severe cases, fewer people in hospitals, fewer intubated --> overall a much more relaxed situation with fewer deaths.

Edited by IndustriousAngel
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31 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Viral load is extremely important, that's why a lot of health workers - nurses and doctors alike - were hit hard during the first weeks. Intubating someone ill with Covid19 will expose you to a really really heavy dose, you need excellent PPE.

 

And that's why I believe that flattening the curve will mean lesser deaths also in the long run. Going by simple mathematics, you could argue that the areas under the curve - meaning the total number of people infected and dead - stays the same - flattening the curve would mean, you have the same number of critical cases and deaths, only over 5 years, as with not flattening.

But in reality it means fewer - much fewer - people are infected at the same time, and that means that the overall viral load will be much smaller. Which means less risk of infection, fewer severe cases, fewer people in hospitals, fewer intubated --> overall a much more relaxed situation with fewer deaths.

50% of new cases in UK are health workers.

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3 hours ago, AndyK said:

 


December 27. If confirmed to be a true positive, it's not inconsistent with what we know - as in the United States, weaknesses in testing in Jan/Feb meant many early cases were missed. But it does go some way to explaining how the outbreak got so big in Europe without having to invoke a higher R0.

Earlier than late December would be surprising, since both the earliest Wuhan cases and the molecular clock data are suggestive of an outbreak origin in early December. (The earliest case was November 17, but community spread in early Decembe. It would be improbable but not impossible for a jump to Europe or somewhere else in the world to occur before there where hundreds of cases in Wuhan, which would probably have been around late December.)
 

1 hour ago, Lordmandeep said:

Idk but is the viral load that people get in infections quite diminished now?

 

That should be put in the equation around opening up things or not. 

 

Like if I go grocery shopping wearing a mask and using hand sanitizer and gloves, the chance of getting or passing the virus is reduced and the amount of virus being passed is reduced by a lot then before. 

 

I read articles saying VIRAL LOAD determines if some people get a mild infection or get badly infected. 

 

It's almost certainly true that mask wearing and other protective measures reduce not only the risk of infection, but the risk of severe infection if infection does occur. So wider availability of surgical masks (and requiring that they are worn) could be a factor in the decision to re-open.

But I think ultimately the decision to (mostly) re-open should be based on whether we can test and trace cases well enough so that the vast majority of infections will be isolated.

In Ontario, we're getting close to there from a testing standpoint - positive test rate is about 2.5%-3%, close to the 2% that was achieved in Taiwan when they were able to contain their outbreak without resorting to lockdowns.

But I think the government should be looking into what Australia and New Zealand are doing with regards to a contact-tracing app - comprehensive contact-tracing is a very important part of the strategy that allows for containment while removing most restrictions. Traditional methods are very, very labour-intensive and also rely on the frailties of human memory, so I'm not sure they will be enough given the scale of this outbreak and the high transmissibility of this virus.

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16 minutes ago, Jason said:


December 27. If confirmed to be a true positive, it's not inconsistent with what we know - as in the United States, weaknesses in testing in Jan/Feb meant many early cases were missed. But it does go some way to explaining how the outbreak got so big in Europe without having to invoke a higher R0.

Earlier than late December would be surprising, since both the earliest Wuhan cases and the molecular clock data are suggestive of an outbreak origin in early December. (The earliest case was November 17, but community spread in early Decembe. It would be improbable but not impossible for a jump to Europe or somewhere else in the world to occur before there where hundreds of cases in Wuhan, which would probably have been around late December.)
 

 

It's almost certainly true that mask wearing and other protective measures reduce not only the risk of infection, but the risk of severe infection if infection does occur. So wider availability of surgical masks (and requiring that they are worn) could be a factor in the decision to re-open.

But I think ultimately the decision to (mostly) re-open should be based on whether we can test and trace cases well enough so that the vast majority of infections will be isolated.

In Ontario, we're getting close to there from a testing standpoint - positive test rate is about 2.5%-3%, close to the 2% that was achieved in Taiwan when they were able to contain their outbreak without resorting to lockdowns.

But I think the government should be looking into what Australia and New Zealand are doing with regards to a contact-tracing app - comprehensive contact-tracing is a very important part of the strategy that allows for containment while removing most restrictions. Traditional methods are very, very labour-intensive and also rely on the frailties of human memory, so I'm not sure they will be enough given the scale of this outbreak and the high transmissibility of this virus.

 

 

Well Its a privacy issue but I do find it odd how many third world countries have developed sophisticated Apps for Corona but we have not or its taking forever. 

 

 

 

 

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